ES Futures (SPX, SPY) Weekly Analyses, Levels: Sep 29 - Oct 3 Weekly Outlook
The trend remains bullish on both the weekly and daily charts, with price action re-accumulating beneath a well-defined supply zone around 6750–6760. Friday’s rebound from the low 6600s has established a higher-low structure on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, closing above the mid-range of 6612–6630, which shifts near-term momentum back in favor of the buyers.
As we enter a catalyst-heavy week, the path of least resistance suggests a measured push through last week’s “weak high” zone (6750–6760). A decisive move above this supply shelf could target the psychological 6800 mark first, with potential for further upside towards 6865–6885, assuming momentum and market breadth are supportive.
Conversely, if we fail to establish acceptance above 6755, the market could revert to a 6700–6760 range, with downside risks extending to 6620 in response to any hot economic data or risk-off sentiment in the headlines.
Key catalysts this week (ET)
Mon–Thu: Fed speakers scattered; watch for rate-path color and balance-sheet remarks.
Tue 10:00: JOLTS (Aug).
Wed 8:15: ADP employment (Sep). Wed 10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Sep).
Fri 8:30: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Sep). Fri 10:00: ISM Services (Sep).
Note: Any fiscal headlines or shutdown noise can skew liquidity and tape reactions around these prints.
Tomorrow — NY AM plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
ES Long (A++) — 6750–6760 Acceptance Continuation
Bias: Bullish if we get acceptance above the 6750–6760 shelf.
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6755. Then 5m pullback holds ≥6750 and re-closes up; enter on the first 1m HL.
Entry: 6752–6756 pullback fill (avoid chasing a wick).
Stop: Hard SL below the 15m break-candle low −0.50. Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
Targets: TP1 6798–6805; TP2 6865–6885; TP3 6900–6915.
Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE. Trail only after TP2 or if a 5m lower-high forms against you. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level for the session.
Invalidation: 15m body back inside ≤6748 or a failed 5m re-close (acceptance lost).
ES Short (A+) — 6750–6760 Rejection Fade
Bias: Mean-revert to base if the shelf is swept and rejected.
Trigger: Sweep 6750–6760 and 15m closes back below 6748. Then 5m re-close down with a LH; enter on the first 1m LH.
Entry: 6744–6748.
Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.50 or ≥6762, whichever is tighter.
Targets: TP1 6705; TP2 6680; TP3 6620.
Management: Take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; consider covering more ahead of 6680 into data windows. Time-stop 45–60m. Max 2 attempts.
Invalidation: 15m acceptance back above 6755 or a 5m close making new session highs.
Price Projection for the Week
Base Scenario: If we see early-week acceptance above 6755, look for targets at 6800, paving the way for a gradual move towards 6865–6885 by Friday. A soft-landing scenario, characterized by cooler labor growth and steady ISM data, could push prices even to the 6900–6915 range.
Alternative Scenario: Should we experience a rejection in the 6750–6760 range, expect the ES to remain range-bound between 6700–6760. Hot labor market data or strong ISM figures could drive the price back to 6620, where it’s crucial for buyers to defend this level to maintain the uptrend.
Execution Notes:
- Focus on trade opportunities only within key kill-zones: primary session is NY AM from 09:30–11:00; optional trading during Asia/London sessions should be done at reduced sizes.
- Adhere to daily barriers: halt trading at -2R or after achieving +3R net.
- On first touch, prioritize R0/S1 as significant; consider de-risking during second or third interactions.
