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NQM2024 trade ideas

Week of May 19 - NDX/VIX/10y/OilNew record highs on indexes!! The DJI broker 40k, and CME_MINI:NQ1! itself broke to nATH as well. CBOT_MINI:YM1! never actually made a nATH, but cash DJ:DJI did - so I wan waiting for that to resolve itself. The good news is that CME_MINI:NQ1! has a really clean weekly chart here, so I will be focusing on that this week instead of the Dow. I think we are entering the final blow-off phase of the markets where we could see a final up leg that takes us vertical to 50k on the Dow, 7k on SPX, and 22k on NDX. That said - I still see Q4 as being super weak, but the market wants to go higher and it will get its wish with the VIX and bond market helping along - but I will cover that later. Nasdaq Last week, we made a nATH which is great. From HERE - I want to see a pullback on CME_MINI:NQ1! to around $18k. This is a weekly FVG as well as ~50% pullback from the ATH. This will also satisfy our ERL -> IRL move. Once we take that out, we can see a weekly Fib projection of 19.6k - and at that point I think they would just muscle this thing to 20k. VIX Our poor baby TVC:VIX - what have they done to you!? Friday was OPEX so I was expecting to see them pin price somewhere as they drained the VIX dry - and thats exactly what they did. VIX nLOY - and we almost swept the 2023 lows which is a 4 year low. The TRAP in all of this - is that I do NOT want to be looking for Longs with a VIX that is at multi-year lows. I want the VIX to pop to help pressure indexes for a normal pullback. The faster the pullback and the higher the VIX - the sooner we can get on with this final leg of a 40 year bull market. Bonds I have been watching the 10yr note really closely as it looks like rates are going to backtest higher before resuming lower. A slight backup in rates, along with a VIX pop, SHOULD give us the needed pressure on indexes to get a proper pullback to buy. The longer term picture is still much lower for rates from here as the economy continues to weaken. Stocks won't care WHY rates are dropping - at least not for a while. So long as we have a low-ish VIX, and bonds are bid - the indexes (especially tech) will FLY higher. Oil Oil FINALLY gave us some weekly context we can start leaning against. Oil is starting to march lower and this week was just the pullback into a weekly IRL level. From HERE, I want to see Oil continue to march lower on the weekly. This will continue to ease inflation - which will drop rates - which will bid bonds - which will allow indexes to FLY. Everything is starting to align for a final leg up in a parabolic - exactly what David Hunter has been talking about. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I am looking for indexes to start a pullback this week led by NQ. Any pullback I expect to be fast and sharp - so that nobody can capitalize on it. Set your alerts - I am looking for ~ 18k on NQ1! I want to see the 10yr sweep the highs of last week, and then continue to march lower. This added pressure from the Bond market will weight on indexes. I want to see oil start a march lower from here. The next weekly target for me is down around 75.6 Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
NQ Update April 1st Post (4-18-24)The White arrows to the right side are KL's. 18700 YTD High, 17027 YTD Open and 16300 YTD Low. The white dash is Mid Level of YTD Range. 4/1 Post, we have hit lower target and my see some retracement back up, not looking for a KL 18590 retest. Use Yellow dots as targets for next move. Yellow diagonal TL is next retest and TLX 17867, may see sideways with slight lift prior to another drop. Interesting chart on S/P, we may be heading back into a Dead Zone.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by MAZing
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