NQU2017 trade ideas
Week of May 19 - NDX/VIX/10y/OilNew record highs on indexes!!
The DJI broker 40k, and CME_MINI:NQ1! itself broke to nATH as well. CBOT_MINI:YM1! never actually made a nATH, but cash DJ:DJI did - so I wan waiting for that to resolve itself.
The good news is that CME_MINI:NQ1! has a really clean weekly chart here, so I will be focusing on that this week instead of the Dow.
I think we are entering the final blow-off phase of the markets where we could see a final up leg that takes us vertical to 50k on the Dow, 7k on SPX, and 22k on NDX. That said - I still see Q4 as being super weak, but the market wants to go higher and it will get its wish with the VIX and bond market helping along - but I will cover that later.
Nasdaq
Last week, we made a nATH which is great. From HERE - I want to see a pullback on CME_MINI:NQ1! to around $18k. This is a weekly FVG as well as ~50% pullback from the ATH. This will also satisfy our ERL -> IRL move.
Once we take that out, we can see a weekly Fib projection of 19.6k - and at that point I think they would just muscle this thing to 20k.
VIX
Our poor baby TVC:VIX - what have they done to you!? Friday was OPEX so I was expecting to see them pin price somewhere as they drained the VIX dry - and thats exactly what they did.
VIX nLOY - and we almost swept the 2023 lows which is a 4 year low. The TRAP in all of this - is that I do NOT want to be looking for Longs with a VIX that is at multi-year lows. I want the VIX to pop to help pressure indexes for a normal pullback. The faster the pullback and the higher the VIX - the sooner we can get on with this final leg of a 40 year bull market.
Bonds
I have been watching the 10yr note really closely as it looks like rates are going to backtest higher before resuming lower. A slight backup in rates, along with a VIX pop, SHOULD give us the needed pressure on indexes to get a proper pullback to buy. The longer term picture is still much lower for rates from here as the economy continues to weaken. Stocks won't care WHY rates are dropping - at least not for a while.
So long as we have a low-ish VIX, and bonds are bid - the indexes (especially tech) will FLY higher.
Oil
Oil FINALLY gave us some weekly context we can start leaning against. Oil is starting to march lower and this week was just the pullback into a weekly IRL level. From HERE, I want to see Oil continue to march lower on the weekly. This will continue to ease inflation - which will drop rates - which will bid bonds - which will allow indexes to FLY. Everything is starting to align for a final leg up in a parabolic - exactly what David Hunter has been talking about.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I am looking for indexes to start a pullback this week led by NQ. Any pullback I expect to be fast and sharp - so that nobody can capitalize on it. Set your alerts - I am looking for ~ 18k on NQ1!
I want to see the 10yr sweep the highs of last week, and then continue to march lower. This added pressure from the Bond market will weight on indexes.
I want to see oil start a march lower from here. The next weekly target for me is down around 75.6
Until next week - We'll be watching.
Today's analysis E-MiniFor those who still think that trading is a scam, check my profile for more information. Today we are bullish. After analyzing the DXY, I noticed that on the daily it reached a gap from which it will reverse. At 9:00 am new york local time we have the FOMC. News of medium impact news. I will keep you informed if changes are announced
UpdatedToday I think I'll look for a seal. Given how the market is reacting, I don't know if it makes sense to look for a buy.
I updated today's analysisI updated today's analysis. It seems that the market has other plans. I will see after he takes the part of the buyside if he withdraws. And I will look for a sell entry.
NQM2024 clean setupstoday price action offered beautiful setups from manipulation deviations and ADR study that 🔥
E-Mini Nasdaq AnalysisHi folks. I'm back with the analysis for the E-Mini. Today we are bullish. After he takes the sellside part, wait for him to make a break in the market structure and enter the trade. For those who trade CAD, at 08:30 you have high impact CPI news. Be careful and take care
NQ1! BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so NQ1! is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 17922.50.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Taking what it offers meWe reflected on the market and today we are bearish. We only have one medium impact news at 10:15am New York local time. Be careful that today is Friday and usually on Monday and Friday the market is not as precise and does not always respect the strategy you want to apply.
Looking for sells1. Imbalance below
2. 4hr bearish (tpd twice)
3. 1hr bearish (tpd twice)
4. 45min FSH
5. 30min SSl
NQ1!, big pictureAs NQ1! price moves towards its ATH at 18709, and assuming that new ATHs are found shortly, I'm looking at this being wave 5 of (3) of ((5)). Wave (1) of ((5)) was an expanding leading diagonal.
Major corrections in the primary wave structure coincide with significant world events (i.e. Great Financial Crisis, COVID-19, etc.). S&P, DJI, and Russell 2000 all at similar points in their wave structures, although I find the Nasdaq to provide the most clarity at this point.
I suspect wave (5) of ((5)) will complete within the next 12 months.
NQ short levelWatch this level and watch how we can potentionally react on it! SIBI (Sellside Imbalance Buyside Inefficiency) + 1/3 ADR 🔥
Another updateAfter taking this high, the market will more than likely retrace. Be patient and we will see. I will keep you posted. We have the FOMC and the market is not precise.
Sorry for the confusionI wanted to let you know that today we are bullish. I confused the analysis with the one from DXY which is bearish. Sorry I wasn't paying attention. Be careful
Selling Nasdaq sharesSell NASDAQ shares as described in the analysis provided and follow the steps specified in Stop Loss and Take Profit
Market AnalysisThis is the 3rd time I am updating the analysis due to high impact news. Today we are bullish after all. It looks like the market will create a new all time high
Gap in chartWait for this gap to close and see if it will make mss (market structure shift). After that we can look for buy position.
NQM2024 - Short beautiful prediction of High of the day using ICT and the tools! target was 1/3 ADR, on highs we also have a beautiful SMT with closely correlated assets!
Updated analysisBecause of the FOMC, I had to change the analysis. I am waiting for him to take the part of buyside liquidity and look for a sell. I will keep you informed if there are any changes until 08:30
1H FVGToday we aim for the FVG in one hour. Just be careful that at 02:00 pm New York local time we have the FOMC. The FOMC affects the market and there is a possibility that the market will not respect the applied strategy.
NASDAQ (NQM2024)... BULLISHBias is Bullish.
Price ran the External LQ, then went
for the Internal LQ.
Price swept the old high, but didn't
displace through it. With the formation
of a +FVG, and price pulling back to tag
it Friday, we may see price trade
through the new high early next week.
Ideally, price will form FVGs to give us
clear indications as to its intentions.
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Stock market analysisNo news today. The market should respect and not have any problems. That's the analysis for today.
