Trade ideas
RTY UpdateRTY not only filled the Sunday gap but also the TACO gap.
Not sure where the market is headed long term, but I expect a bounce either tomorrow or Monday.
The bearish part is that it's back in the down channel. It has to break back through the purple line to rally. Not sure if it does or not. We'll find out next week.
Analysis for What’s Coming - AI Bubble Sentiment The US markets have been described as “on a rally” for quite some time. I would not agree if it is meant to describe the overall US market, but would agree if it refers specifically to AI or tech stocks. Why?
Among the four major US indices, the Russell—representing a much broader base of US-listed companies—continues to struggle to break above its high from last year, even though the others have far surpassed it. In fact, it has since corrected by 9.5% since its all-time high just last month.
After that, the other indices are also following suit only in the past few days, breaking below this uptrend that started in April.
Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index
Ticker: M2K
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 index points = $0.50
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Zigzag Structure in Russell (RTY) Nears Resolution Around 2300The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for the Russell 2000 Index (RTY) indicates that the decline from the October 25, 2025 peak is unfolding as a zigzag corrective structure. From that high, wave 1 concluded at 2473.9, followed by a corrective rally in wave 2 that terminated at 2517.2. The Index then extended lower in wave 3, reaching 2419.6. A brief recovery in wave 4 ended at 2483.4, while the final leg, wave 5, completed at 2386.6. This sequence marked the completion of wave (A) at a higher degree.
Subsequently, the Index corrected higher in wave (B), which concluded at 2486.67, as illustrated in the accompanying one-hour chart. From that point, the Index has resumed its descent in wave (C), which is unfolding internally as a five-wave diagonal. Within this structure, wave 1 ended at 2353.8, and the corrective rally in wave 2 peaked at 2409.1. Wave 3 then declined to 2321.9, followed by a modest rebound in wave 4 to 2371.6.
The Index is expected to extend lower in wave 5, thereby completing wave (C) of ((4)). The projected downside target lies within the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension range from the October 27 peak, spanning 2316.3 to 2307.4. In the near term, as long as the pivot high at 2486.6 remains intact, any rally is anticipated to fail in three, seven, or eleven swings, paving the way for further downside pressure.
RTY UpdateIndicators are neutral.
I don't think it'll rally like I thought so I deleted the green arrow. Every time they stop pumping futures, small caps just drop, like this morning and afternoon.
Probably just drifts sideways until ES and NQ get overbought then goes down with the rest of teh market.
RTY Box LevelsI've taken some time to chart the Russell 200, and I have to say the box is looking quite excellent.
Nice and clean levels, makes a fella wanna put a bid in.
I am not used to trading this name(literally traded it the first time on Monday), but it seems like a good time so far.
I'll be on the look out for LBAFs and LAAFs, no directional bias just trading what is seen atm.
If a look below and fail occurs and is sustained at the upper box, then it is objectively a long (especially if we trade lower first w/a failure to go lower), otherwise if we trade through the level w/ continuation or trade higher first and fail, then a LAAF would take us within the middle box's range.
Trading higher first and failing is more bearish than trading lower first.
Trading lower first and failing to go lower is more bullish than trading higher first.
I like to keep these concepts in mind as I wait for the opening and initial balance ranges to form intraday, and from there, I can form an opinion and initiate a trade.
us2000A trendline got broken, and the price has pulled back to it—keep an eye on it for a possible move up .
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RTY UpdateCouldn't even hold the bounce I drew, lol. Expecting RTY to break support and fill the TACO gap. Small caps are always the first to fill gaps.
I don't expect to see much of a gap in either direction tomorrow. Held on to a few puts, just EWY (Korea ETF which is basically shorting Samsung) and CAT puts.
RTY UpdateMFI headed to overbought as expected, movement is small on RSI side. I don't think it'll stay in the upward channel at this rate. Market seems to have lost interest in small caps.
Note that doesn't mean it will tank, mid caps have been sideways since June much like the DAX and rest of Europe.
RTY Update I expected the algos to pump small caps today because it's at the bottom of the channel that it's been in since April. Went long on ALB after open but bailed on it when the market rolled over before lunch. Made money though, but chart looked to much like yesterday and teh day before to stay in it.
The problem is that MFI went up a lot but the index didn't go up much. So MFI will hit overbought Monday, possibly even before open.
I'm also bearish on Europe for next week.
RTY UpdateWell, my arrow was right, but I didn't anticipate the algo pump before the Fed. The algos seem confused now because their pump and dump didn't work thanks to Powell.
Not sure if they complete the dump tomorrow or if they try to pump it back up for trade news Thu night. Or Maybe both, lol. Dump it until RSI and MFI hit oversold, then pump it back up, lol. We've seen that before.
In any case, RTY moving off hours for the first time in a while. Kinda strange they would try to do the China trade pump with small caps again considering the market sold of the pump in one day last time (Monday).
When Generals Run and Soldiers Nap — The Market’s Odd ParadeEver seen an army march where the generals sprint ahead, but the soldiers just yawn and stay behind?
That’s exactly what’s happening in the U.S. futures battlefield right now.
The ES, NQ, and YM — our large-cap “generals” — opened the week above their prior highs, looking ready for victory speeches. But the RTY, representing small caps, is still lagging like it hit the snooze button.
The Breadth Problem
Healthy rallies need everyone on board. When small caps don’t join the charge, it’s like running a marathon with only one leg — you might move forward, but not for long.
That’s why this gap between the big guys and the small ones is called bearish divergence — momentum without muscle.
How Deep Could It Go?
Under the surface, liquidity pockets (UFO supports) show the “landing zones” below price:
ES: ~5% lower
NQ: ~6% lower
YM: ~9% lower
RTY: ~14% lower (!)
Translation: if the market trips, the generals may bruise a knee — but the soldiers could roll down the hill.
Tick, Margin, and Scale
CME index futures come in two flavors — E-minis for the pros, Micro E-minis for precision control:
S&P 500 (ES/MES): tick 0.25 → $12.50 / $1.25; margin ≈ $21K / $2.1K
Nasdaq 100 (NQ/MNQ): tick 0.25 → $5 / $0.50; margin ≈ $30K / $3K
Dow Jones (YM/MYM): tick 1 → $5 / $0.50; margin ≈ $13K / $1.3K
Russell 2000 (RTY/M2K): tick 0.10 → $5 / $0.50; margin ≈ $9K / $0.9K
(Approximate numbers, educational only.)
The Lesson
Breadth divergences don’t “predict” the end of the rally — they just whisper: “Careful, this parade’s out of sync.”
So before chasing the next breakout, remember:
even the best generals can’t win a war if their soldiers stay in camp.
Want More Depth?
If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one:
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained
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The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
RUSS 2K....GOING WHICH WAY? HMMM CME_MINI:M2K1! Bias-Bearish HOWEVER!
Price is hitting some key areas and will show us whether it continues or dumps to key levels.
PP-2522-2514 are fib zones in a FVG so price could most def push higher to the S.O.B above (which is what a majority of signs show). However my personal belief with all the negative news I believe we will have this week, price will take some of these lows out and find a B.O.B below. Thats a theory but like always we let price tell us the true trend and direction! Now what is your theory for this week?
Either way, WE'RE GOING TO GET PAID!
RTY Small Open GapRTY has a small open gap from the Thurs 1 hr break that does not exist on NQ and ES. Pennant breakdown also looks bearish.
ES did not go oversold on RSI last drop like RTY did, so maybe ES melts up and RTY doesn't? Small caps can diverge from NDX and SPX. Also, RTY didn't break out to a new ATH like the otehr 2 indices.






















