RTY Premarket UpdatePosting premarket update because I showed it went oversold yesterday. MFI hit overbought already, don't chase it.
Trade ideas
RTY UpdateI said I'd wait until indicators show something before trading, RTY MFI hit oversold before market opened, so I went long today....
but I realized what I should have done is buy IWM call options on open, lol. Next time. RSI is almost overbought, I expect it to go above teh line just like last time.
RTY UpdateRSI and MFI actually hit oversold on the daily, so it got the biggest pump of all. Good retail earnings certainly helped today.
In any case, RSI and MFI are both overbought on the 3 hr, expecting a dip here tomorrow. Not gonna short it though.
The way to play it is to wait until MFI goes oversold and buy calls. I'm expecting a melt up.
RTY BUY and SELL ZonesSetups i am watching this week
Buy zone - Green arrow (2411-2400) - (swing) confluence for this Green zone
Clean Sweep of 25 - Nov low
Strong support zone in hourly (4h)
TL support
Sell zone - (2520-2510 ) confluence
Clean sweep of PMH,PWH, PDH & 29 Oct High
Resistance Zone
Always enter the Trade after confirmation which is 2B in 30 mts or hourly
RTY - Bull and sell zonesSetups i am watching this week
Buy zone - Green arrow (2411-2400) - (swing) confluence for this Green zone
Clean Sweep of 25 - Nov low
Strong support zone in hourly (4h)
TL support
Sell zone - (2520-2510 ) confluence
Clean sweep of PMH,PWH, PDH & 29 Oct High
Resistance Zone
Always enter the Trade after confirmation which is 2B in 30 mts or hourly
RTY Open GapRTY left an open gap after the 1 hour break.
That's gonna fill, it's coming back down.
Note: 15 min chart, ignore indicators
RTY UpdateMFI hit overbought already, but they're pumping it anyways on NVDA earnings which really has nothing to do with small caps. Jobs report tomorrow though.
This remains the index to short, but I'll probably wait until Monday.
Analysis for What’s Coming - AI Bubble Sentiment The US markets have been described as “on a rally” for quite some time. I would not agree if it is meant to describe the overall US market, but would agree if it refers specifically to AI or tech stocks. Why?
Among the four major US indices, the Russell—representing a much broader base of US-listed companies—continues to struggle to break above its high from last year, even though the others have far surpassed it. In fact, it has since corrected by 9.5% since its all-time high just last month.
After that, the other indices are also following suit only in the past few days, breaking below this uptrend that started in April.
Micro E-mini Russell 2000 Index
Ticker: M2K
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 index points = $0.50
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RTY Box LevelsI've taken some time to chart the Russell 200, and I have to say the box is looking quite excellent.
Nice and clean levels, makes a fella wanna put a bid in.
I am not used to trading this name(literally traded it the first time on Monday), but it seems like a good time so far.
I'll be on the look out for LBAFs and LAAFs, no directional bias just trading what is seen atm.
If a look below and fail occurs and is sustained at the upper box, then it is objectively a long (especially if we trade lower first w/a failure to go lower), otherwise if we trade through the level w/ continuation or trade higher first and fail, then a LAAF would take us within the middle box's range.
Trading higher first and failing is more bearish than trading lower first.
Trading lower first and failing to go lower is more bullish than trading higher first.
I like to keep these concepts in mind as I wait for the opening and initial balance ranges to form intraday, and from there, I can form an opinion and initiate a trade.
Zigzag Structure in Russell (RTY) Nears Resolution Around 2300The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for the Russell 2000 Index (RTY) indicates that the decline from the October 25, 2025 peak is unfolding as a zigzag corrective structure. From that high, wave 1 concluded at 2473.9, followed by a corrective rally in wave 2 that terminated at 2517.2. The Index then extended lower in wave 3, reaching 2419.6. A brief recovery in wave 4 ended at 2483.4, while the final leg, wave 5, completed at 2386.6. This sequence marked the completion of wave (A) at a higher degree.
Subsequently, the Index corrected higher in wave (B), which concluded at 2486.67, as illustrated in the accompanying one-hour chart. From that point, the Index has resumed its descent in wave (C), which is unfolding internally as a five-wave diagonal. Within this structure, wave 1 ended at 2353.8, and the corrective rally in wave 2 peaked at 2409.1. Wave 3 then declined to 2321.9, followed by a modest rebound in wave 4 to 2371.6.
The Index is expected to extend lower in wave 5, thereby completing wave (C) of ((4)). The projected downside target lies within the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension range from the October 27 peak, spanning 2316.3 to 2307.4. In the near term, as long as the pivot high at 2486.6 remains intact, any rally is anticipated to fail in three, seven, or eleven swings, paving the way for further downside pressure.
RTY UpdateSeems like the market has given up on small caps, lol. They're not even bothering to pump futures unless MFI and RSI get way oversold. Will most likely hit the purple line below.
Also, small caps aren't done tanking until garbage like FCEL go back down to where they belong. I'll plot it.
RTY UpdateDaily MFI is almost oversold, but I'm not sure that matters.
I'm still bearish on small caps because there's still a bunch of total garbage companies that haven't fallen to proper levels, such as FCEL.
RTY UpdateRTY not only filled the Sunday gap but also the TACO gap.
Not sure where the market is headed long term, but I expect a bounce either tomorrow or Monday.
The bearish part is that it's back in the down channel. It has to break back through the purple line to rally. Not sure if it does or not. We'll find out next week.
Upside momentum is slowing downBe cautious on the long side in the S&P 500 daily chart. Momentum still favors the upside. However, the structure indicates that momentum is slowing down so be cautious on the long side of this market.
us2000A trendline got broken, and the price has pulled back to it—keep an eye on it for a possible move up .
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RTY UpdateIndicators are neutral.
I don't think it'll rally like I thought so I deleted the green arrow. Every time they stop pumping futures, small caps just drop, like this morning and afternoon.
Probably just drifts sideways until ES and NQ get overbought then goes down with the rest of teh market.
RTY UpdateMuch like ES, it has a downward megaphone pattern. I think it'll break Monday, but I'm not sure it will regain the previous up channel. RSI and MFI hit oversold, so we're moving back up. Bullish for Monday, all long positions, no puts.
RTY UpdateMFI should hit overbought tomorrow, RTY might be the only index that fills the TACO gap. It tried to regain the upward channel and failed today.
Small caps have been the weakest index lately. Not as much future pumping as the rest of them.
RTY UpdateCouldn't even hold the bounce I drew, lol. Expecting RTY to break support and fill the TACO gap. Small caps are always the first to fill gaps.
I don't expect to see much of a gap in either direction tomorrow. Held on to a few puts, just EWY (Korea ETF which is basically shorting Samsung) and CAT puts.
RTY UpdateSmall caps will lose he channel line if it doesn't go up tomorrow. It'll probably just whipsaw sideways though
RTY UpdateMFI headed to overbought as expected, movement is small on RSI side. I don't think it'll stay in the upward channel at this rate. Market seems to have lost interest in small caps.
Note that doesn't mean it will tank, mid caps have been sideways since June much like the DAX and rest of Europe.
RTY Update I expected the algos to pump small caps today because it's at the bottom of the channel that it's been in since April. Went long on ALB after open but bailed on it when the market rolled over before lunch. Made money though, but chart looked to much like yesterday and teh day before to stay in it.
The problem is that MFI went up a lot but the index didn't go up much. So MFI will hit overbought Monday, possibly even before open.
I'm also bearish on Europe for next week.
