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Silver Futures (Dec 2023)Silver Futures (Dec 2023)Silver Futures (Dec 2023)

Silver Futures (Dec 2023)

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SIZ2023 trade ideas

Major Overhead Resistance for SilverSilver futures have faced challenges in the new year, but the market has established higher lows, instilling a layer of optimism for the precious metal. Like all risk assets, silver will continue to be susceptible to changes in interest rate expectations and the path of the Federal Reserve. Recently, the bond market has tempered its expectations of an interest rate cut in March, with probabilities now ranging from low to mid-60%, compared to expectations as high as 80%+ in late December. Comparison of Fed’s Interest Rate Projections to Market Expectations: The latest Summary of Economic Projections outlined the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) expectations for the path of interest rates in 2024. Median estimates anticipate a terminal rate of 470-475 basis points (75 basis points of cuts) by the end of 2024. Current market expectations are pricing in a terminal rate of 395 basis points (125 basis points worth of cuts) by the end of 2024, reflecting 75 basis points more in cuts than the Fed's latest median projection. For the market to align with this interest rate trajectory, a significant downward trend in inflation or a slowdown in growth would be necessary. Otherwise, we might witness the bond market realigning expectations, converging with the Fed’s projections and posing a headwind to risk assets like silver. Technical Analysis: Silver encounters significant overhead resistance from 23.50 to 23.75. To observe more momentum and conviction, a break and close above this level would be required. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:SI1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
DeGRAM | Silver at the reaction zoneSilver dropped from the resistance and broke the lower border of the descending channel. If we look closely, we can see that the price is near the reaction zone. It bounced off this level multiple times. If the market fails to break through the resistance level, we can sell at that level. We anticipate a breakout of the channel and further bearish moves. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
COMEX:SI1!Short
by DeGRAM
1
Can Silver Break-Out? Since reaching recent all-time highs, gold has outpaced silver, and despite a favorable risk asset environment, recent price action in silver has yet to validate a decisive upward move. It's crucial to recognize that silver holds significant industrial applications, establishing a notable correlation with metals like copper and zinc. As these metals are considered forward-looking due to their integral role in various industries, their increased demand is often indicative of growing economic activity, positioning them as leading indicators. Economic Headwinds and Fundamental Challenges: The recent revision of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q4, were lowered from 1.8% to 1.2%, reflecting weaker economic growth expectations. Concurrently, weaknesses in the labor market have shifted interest rate expectations, now pricing in a potential cut as early as March 2024. While easier financial conditions typically boost silver prices as investors seek risk assets, concerns arise regarding demand in the industrial sector, heavily influenced by the business cycle. Can We Break Out? Silver, with characteristics of both a precious and industrial metal, requires more robust fundamentals than gold. Upcoming unemployment rate and Nonfarm payrolls reports will offer insights into the labor market, with further weakness likely leading to lower rates and supporting silver. However, industrial sector strength in China and the U.S. is equally imperative. The Technical Picture: From a technical standpoint, the 21-Day EMA serves as a near-term support, while 26.25-26.75 presents substantial overhead resistance. A breakthrough and close above this level are essential to retest the $28 mark. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:SI1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Silver like gold has two possibilitiesHello there! I am a big fan of the Elliott Wave Principle, which is very interesting and useful for analyzing the market. I have developed my analytical approach by combining the principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that may occur in the market. Although I want to share my analysis with you, I want to emphasize that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My main intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions. To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand. I hope that my analysis will be helpful in your trading journey and wish you all the best. Sincerely,
COMEX:SI1!Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
2