Silver futures have faced challenges in the new year, but the market has established higher lows, instilling a layer of optimism for the precious metal.
Like all risk assets, silver will continue to be susceptible to changes in interest rate expectations and the path of the Federal Reserve. Recently, the bond market has tempered its expectations of an interest rate cut in March, with probabilities now ranging from low to mid-60%, compared to expectations as high as 80%+ in late December.
Comparison of Fed’s Interest Rate Projections to Market Expectations:
The latest Summary of Economic Projections outlined the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) expectations for the path of interest rates in 2024. Median estimates anticipate a terminal rate of 470-475 basis points (75 basis points of cuts) by the end of 2024.
Current market expectations are pricing in a terminal rate of 395 basis points (125 basis points worth of cuts) by the end of 2024, reflecting 75 basis points more in cuts than the Fed's latest median projection.
For the market to align with this interest rate trajectory, a significant downward trend in inflation or a slowdown in growth would be necessary. Otherwise, we might witness the bond market realigning expectations, converging with the Fed’s projections and posing a headwind to risk assets like silver.
Technical Analysis:
Silver encounters significant overhead resistance from 23.50 to 23.75. To observe more momentum and conviction, a break and close above this level would be required.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Like all risk assets, silver will continue to be susceptible to changes in interest rate expectations and the path of the Federal Reserve. Recently, the bond market has tempered its expectations of an interest rate cut in March, with probabilities now ranging from low to mid-60%, compared to expectations as high as 80%+ in late December.
Comparison of Fed’s Interest Rate Projections to Market Expectations:
The latest Summary of Economic Projections outlined the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) expectations for the path of interest rates in 2024. Median estimates anticipate a terminal rate of 470-475 basis points (75 basis points of cuts) by the end of 2024.
Current market expectations are pricing in a terminal rate of 395 basis points (125 basis points worth of cuts) by the end of 2024, reflecting 75 basis points more in cuts than the Fed's latest median projection.
For the market to align with this interest rate trajectory, a significant downward trend in inflation or a slowdown in growth would be necessary. Otherwise, we might witness the bond market realigning expectations, converging with the Fed’s projections and posing a headwind to risk assets like silver.
Technical Analysis:
Silver encounters significant overhead resistance from 23.50 to 23.75. To observe more momentum and conviction, a break and close above this level would be required.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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