QOG2023 trade ideas
GC 15M ICT UNICORN BULLISH BREAKERGC created nice 15M bullish breaker aligning with 15M FVG. I will be targeting weekly equal highs as a draw on liquidity. 1:2 RR would be available in this trade
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well.
Interesting day today. Very strong move by the bulls above many bear trend lines. The first move to 2046 happened exactly in the Globex session as i said but the spike to 2058 was so big, that all bears had to give up. I expect follow through.
Quote from yesterday:
At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema and the bull trend line from the triangle, very high probability market will go there for a retest.
bull case: Bulls want follow through and i got a measured move target around 2080-2090. If this was a w1, it could lead up to 2100+ again. If bulls can keep the giant bull gap open, i’d enter on a stop 2060 for 2080 and higher.
bear case: Bears gave up on the spike bar and will be cautious before shorting again, especially not the bull flag we formed into the close. If they could close the gap to 2046, this might reverse completely but for now bulls are in control.
short term: neutral until we break 2060, then it’s up, below 2046 is more down
medium-long term: sideways
trade of the day: long double bottom one tick above bar 8, which could have given you the complete spike up. Monday and Wednesday could not break 2030 and it was an obvious buy area
Gold forecastgold forecast. We believe that 3 downward waves have been completed after 5 upward waves since October 2023. So we would now be in a new wave to the upside, targeting 2150.
GOLD Long Idea-This week I've had an overall bullish bias for Gold to head to the PWH after we put in a fractal swing low on the weekly, confluence with wicking below several weekly lows.
-Although today's Daily candle close isn't super strong, I'm still leaning towards looking for longs.
-Daily candle rejected from the Daily +OB again, and also failed to displace and close below Tuesdays Low.
-I am targeting Wednesdays high, and the PWW.
-I want to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected, followed by a displacement entry confirmation on M15/M5.
Bearish on GoldIn reviewing the chart, I've observed a recurring descending triangle pattern. Despite numerous attempts to break out, the pattern has consistently failed. My entry point stands at $2042.7. For the exit strategy, I plan to set the price slightly above the last swing high, while aiming to secure profits at the last swing low.
Entry: $2042.7
Exit: $2045.8
Take Profit: 2033.4
GOLD moving in a bearish flagOn a 1-hour timeframe, we are currently in a bearish flag pattern. The green box represents a significant resistance line, so trade caution if you are considering opening long positions. Additionally, there is a decrease in trading volumes, which is also term for short move.
The trading setup may involve entering the market within the flag pattern, considering both support and resistance lines, and utilizing the Williams Alligator angles, preferably on the 15-minute timeframe.
IMPORTANT! Always follow the RM strategy!
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Options Blueprint Series: Protective Puts for Market DefenseIntroduction to Protective Puts: Safeguarding Your Investments with Options
In the ever-fluctuating world of finance, protective puts emerge as a strategy for investors aiming to shield their portfolios from unexpected downturns. This options blueprint series delves into the intricacies of protective puts, presenting them as a pivotal component in the arsenal of market defense mechanisms.
Understanding Gold Futures
Before we navigate the strategic utilization of protective puts, it's essential to grasp the fundamentals of Gold Futures traded on the COMEX exchange. Gold Futures are contracts to buy or sell a specific amount of gold at a predetermined price on a set future date. These contracts are standardized in terms of quality, quantity, and delivery time, making them a popular tool for risk management.
Contract Specifications:
Contract Size: One Gold Futures contract represents 100 troy ounces of gold.
Point Value: Each point move in the gold price equates to a $100 change per contract.
Margin Requirements: Initial and maintenance margin requirements vary (currently $8,300 per contract), providing leverage to traders but also increasing risk.
Trading Hours: Gold Futures trading hours extend beyond the traditional market hours (currently 23 hours of trading per day), offering flexibility to traders across the globe.
In addition to standard Gold Futures, investors and traders can also consider Micro Gold Futures as a more granular tool for their trading and hedging strategies. Micro Gold Futures represent 10 troy ounces of gold, offering a tenth of the size of a standard Gold Futures contract. This smaller contract size allows for greater precision in position sizing, making it easier for individual investors to tailor their investment strategies to their specific risk tolerance and market outlook. Micro Gold Futures follow the same trading hours and quality standards as their standard counterparts, providing the same level of liquidity and access but with added flexibility.
These specifications underscore the liquidity and accessibility of both Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures, making them attractive instruments for a diverse range of trading strategies, including protective puts. The addition of Micro Gold Futures to your trading arsenal can offer more precise control over your investment exposure, enhancing your ability to implement protective measures like puts effectively.
Implementing Protective Puts with Gold Futures
The protective put strategy entails purchasing a put option for an asset you own, in this case, Gold Futures. This approach effectively sets a floor on the potential losses should gold prices plummet, while still allowing for unlimited gains if gold prices soar.
This graph illustrates the payoff of a put strategy. Combining such outcome with a Long Gold Futures Positions would present a loss limitation below the put option's strike price, reflecting the insured nature of the investment against significant downturns. Conversely, the graph indicates the potential for unlimited gains, minus the cost of the put premium, as gold prices rise.
Why Use Protective Puts?
The allure of protective puts lies in their ability to provide a safety net for investors, particularly in the volatile realm of Gold Futures trading. This strategy is akin to purchasing insurance for your portfolio; it's about preparedness, not prediction. In an unpredictable market, protective puts are a testament to the adage, "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst."
Cost of Protection
The cost of purchasing a put option, known as the premium, is the price paid for downside protection. While this cost can impact overall returns, the premium is often viewed as a reasonable fee for the insurance it provides against significant losses. Savvy investors consider this cost an investment in portfolio stability and risk management.
How Protective Puts Work
Understanding the mechanics of protective puts is crucial for effectively employing this strategy in the context of Gold Futures trading. This section demystifies the process, guiding investors on how to leverage protective puts for market defense.
The Mechanics of Protective Puts
Purchasing the Put Option: The first step involves buying a put option for the Gold Futures contracts you own. This put option grants you the right, but not the obligation, to sell your futures contracts at a specific strike price up to the option's expiration date.
Choosing the Strike Price: The strike price should reflect the level of protection you desire. A strike price set below the current market price of the Gold Futures offers a balance between cost (premium) and the degree of protection.
Determining the Premium: The cost of the put option, or premium, varies based on several factors, including the strike price, the duration until expiration, and the volatility of the gold market. This premium is the maximum risk the investor faces, as it represents the cost of protection.
Scenario Outcomes:
If Gold Prices Fall: Should the market price of Gold Futures drop below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option, selling the futures contracts at the protected strike price, thereby minimizing losses.
If Gold Prices Rise: In the event that gold prices increase, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the rise in the value of their Gold Futures contracts, less the cost of the premium.
Implementing Protective Puts in Your Portfolio
To effectively implement protective puts in your investment strategy, consider the following steps:
Assess Your Risk Tolerance: Determine the level of downside protection you need based on your risk appetite and investment goals.
Select the Appropriate Put Options: Choose put options with strike prices and expiration dates that align with your desired level of protection and market outlook.
Monitor the Market: Stay informed about market conditions and adjust your protective put strategy as necessary to align with changing market dynamics and investment objectives.
Scenario Analysis: Protective Puts in Action
Let's explore how protective puts would work out in the current Gold Futures market scenario.
In a bullish market, where Gold Futures prices are rising, the protective put option may expire worthless, but the investor benefits from the increase in the value of their Gold Futures contracts. The cost of the put option (the premium) is the only loss, considered an insurance expense against downside risk.
In a bearish market, Gold Futures prices decline. If the price falls below the strike price of the put option, the investor can exercise the option to sell the futures at the strike price, thus minimizing losses.
In a market where Gold Futures prices remain relatively stable, the protective put option may expire worthless. The investor retains ownership of the futures contracts, which have not significantly changed in value, losing only the premium paid for the put option.
Considerations and Best Practices
Cost-Benefit Analysis: Weigh the cost of the put option premiums against the potential benefits of downside protection. Protective puts are an investment in peace of mind and should be evaluated as part of a broader risk management strategy.
Diversification: While protective puts offer specific risk mitigation for Gold Futures, consider diversification across different asset classes such as WTI Oil Futures, Yield Futures, etc. and strategies as a comprehensive approach to portfolio risk management.
Conclusion
Protective puts are a powerful tool for investors in Gold Futures, offering a methodical approach to safeguarding investments against adverse market movements. By thoughtfully implementing protective puts, investors can achieve a balanced portfolio, characterized by reduced risk and preserved potential for growth. As we move forward in our Options Blueprint Series, the importance of a disciplined approach to risk management and strategic planning cannot be overstated in the pursuit of investment success.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well.
bull case: Bulls stalled the market around 2040 which is important now. Bears made lower lows and broke below the triangle. Bulls need to trade back above 2040 and they want a retest of the smaller bear trend line around 2046 and then make a higher high above 2050. At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema and the bull trend line from the triangle, very high probability market will go there for a retest. As long as they keep it above 2034, the market is neutral.
bear case: Bears broke below the triangle and are trading inside a weak looking bear channel. Their next target is to trade below 2034 and make lower lows. They want the market to stay below 2044.
short term: neutral with maybe a slightly higher chance for the bears but need 1h close below 2034 for that.
medium-long term: neutral until breakout of bigger triangle with follow through
trade of the day: short 2050 which is holding as resistance. there was a good triple top bar 4, 8, 11
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE on this GC Future Short...?COMEX:GC1!
YOO family....I hope all is well>>> Lets Chop it Up and Go over this Future Short...
Here are the few things I will need to see in PA before I enter SHORT...
1) On Friday Feb. 23rd Buyers pushed price up nearly 200pts during both session combined London & NY and Entered a major a Daily Supply Zone. Sellers held resistance inside the Daily Supply around Major KEY LEVEL ($2050.00) AND immediately pushed price back down...
2) Now If sellers can stand their ground and HOLD ($2050.00) as Major Resistance and push price lower breaking demand then we may be compelled to go short...
3) I want to see Price Drop $10.00 trading back down to ($2040.00) and break that minor level o/support and enter the 30m indecision candle CPB Demand...
4) Now IF I can have it all my way!! I want to see the CPB demand fail with at least a 1Hr candle wick below and then I'll be very interested in going Short. *Catching the Retest of Support Level that failed around ($2040.00).
5) Now even if the CPB Demand doesn't fail and pushes price back up into the support level that failed around ($2040.00) then I will still enter Short as long as long as we can get candle closures on both the 30&15m candle sticks inside the CPB demand & under failed support level. Then I will enter short on the retest...***I need to price to close under support though on both the 30&15m candles! Very very important factor and also price needs to be trading underneath the RED V-Wap as a final cherry on the top confluence to enter...
7) We also have a Major iR/LQ Trend that needs to be swept to the downside on the 4Hr TF
(which will be the move I am looking to capitalize on...) This is also why I believe the Market is getting ready to go short, to rebalance itself out...Remember Buyers and Sellers both have to have fair play! The market has imbalance currently to the upside that buyers have created and now we need to sellers to come and participate to rebalance the market and create fair play for both parties...
6) Now if we can see the following Play out in PA stated in the steps above, then I will look to target the next Daily Support Level around ($2028.5). Roughly around 115 points... We can easily catch a solid +2-3R % gain depending on your management system...
***Remember nothing is set in stone, This is simply a Short narrative I want to see play out. That does not mean that it will because play the game of probabilities... However I am very confident in my reading of PA...
Now lets sit back N stalk like the saltwater croc!
#BHM500K #NewERA
Is it time for Gold to ShineAMEX:GLD COMEX:GC1! looks ready for a move up. RSI paused just below 60, ADX move not started yet, MACD and price both coiling
A lot of Economic Reports on deck this week may act as catalyst.
Gold LongI see price buying just to clear liquidity as for now. Price did its 4th element which was the reversal to the upside. That element usually aims for liquidity pools, external liquidity, highs and lows, before reversing. Im watching this every 15 days. Already rode the buy up at @2008
Short Gold PositionNow we are moving in a developing descending channel, and when the price reaches the rectangle area, you can open a short position.
Reasons for opening:
1. From this price, a descending movement observed several times.
2. When the price reaches the box area, you can see a sharp angle on the Williams' Alligator.
Important! Follow risk management and do not open a trade for more than 2% of your deposit. Place the stop-loss around 2050. TP in the down box.
Engineering liquidityI expect short positions. We are in FVG where I am waiting for a rejection at a lower levels.
First Target 2032.5
Gold breakout to $2,500I think after four years of getting rejected and sinking back down, gold finally looks like it's ready to break out. If it does I think it's going to break out hard and we could see a quick (but short lived) run to $2,500.
Let's see.
Two potential swing trades for goldGold futures saw a false break of $2060 on Wednesday, before momentum turned lower and sent prices back beneath the weekly and monthly pivot points. Those pivots have since turned into resistance, before gold saw a trendline break.
As RSI (2) is oversold and prices have found support at the 10-dy EMA and daily S1 pivot, bulls could seek a near-term swing long trade with a stop below 2045 and a target back near the pivots.
At which point, we see the potential for another leg lower, so bears could seek evidence of a swing high and for a move back down to $2040, or the swing lows near the daily S pivot.
Gold: Don’t Slacken! 💪To follow our primary scenario, Gold must not slacken on its way further up the chart! We still expect the turquoise wave B to reach a new all-time high, which requires more (corrective) rises. However, our alternative scenario could still prevail with a probability of 40%. In this case, the turquoise wave alt.B would have already been finished with the last prominent high, and Gold would, therefore, turn down earlier to dive below the support at $1935.
Textbook RectangleIf you were to draw a channel/rectangle for #gold futures daily chart, this one has the most relevant hits.
These are the best set-ups IMO. Price is squeezing.
Sellside liquidity long on goldTwo realtive equal low = Sellside liquidity
Long with target buyside liq
CG1 looking for gold to climb Gold has been testing the resistance of 2027 and looks set to finally break free once it has a retrace to 2024. look for a breakout at 2028
Gold Update: No changesNothing new to add on Gold. It is as slow moving as molasses. It is still on positive divergence at this time. Economists are starting to say a recession is expected at some time this year so maybe that is the catalyst gold is waiting on to raise higher. It has always been a store of value and a commodity people flock to in hard economic times.
One question I want to leave you with concerning gold; is BTC replacing it? Many older investors are finally coming around to BTC and the potential it holds making it more mainstream. This is opening it up to more equity streams of capital. What does this mean for gold? Only time will tell...
Don't forget, beginning February 23rd, I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view. My last regular post / update will be on that day.
