According to the model, France would not be spared the next wave, but it is delayed until January 2022 thereabouts, based on the current trajectory.
Oct 17 2020 = 21189 cases/day = 148323 cases/week Oct 24 2020 = 31329 cases/day = 219303 cases/week Oct 31 2020 = 40161 cases/day = 281127 cases/week Nov 07 2020 = 56377 cases/day = 394639 cases/week
CONFIRMED_FR 2.2 million cases by December 2020
CONFIRMED_FR 3.5 million cases by March 2021
1,417,408 CONFIRMED FR cases by 22nd Nov. 2020
1,173,975 CONFIRMED FR COVID19 cases by 19th November 2020 before going up faster.
I would like to know someone who studied normalized Gaussian curves with expected value u and variance o2. In theory, the more we will test people, the more the curve will spike rapidly, to go down rapidly, but it's just mathematics, not epidemiology. According to epidemiologists, there won't be second wave before September 2020. Here is the official numbers...
I simulated the number of case based on Chinese model, 1month after quarantine. In realy EU is worth then CH, so i could be worst.
Covid19 Comparaison évolution France /Chine / Italie / Allemagne