Inflation has Peaked-Multi-decade resistance trendline unbroken -Bearish divergence on the Wolfpack -"Overbought" on the RSI -Curling price action by ILuminosityUpdated 1
FED vs ECB Interest Rate DifferentialIn this chart you can see the interest rate differential for the FED versus the ECB. I have outlined a possible scenario in rate cuts highlighting a bearish Euro/bullish US Dollar. If the ECB will cut rates before the FED it will enlarge the differential, which is a bearish outlook for the Euro.by ASignOfTime1
Inflation is not going to go awayI posted in March 2020 that we had likely seen a generational low in yields following the spike driven by Covid fears. We are now STILL in the early innings of a generational (at least 20 years) BULL market for inflation and yields Position accordingly over coming yearsLongby WVS_Stockscreen0
2024 inflation lower but 2026-2028 might be different trendnote: this is just precaution, a risk management, a bad scenario when happen, and know why it could happen there an article in twitter posted by Kobeissiletter (the source of picture) it making similar movement like stagflation which potentially could see a higher inflation later but we are not in stagflation because inflation and unemployment still low and based on 1970s there is oil shock too An oil shock refers to a sudden and significant increase in the price of oil, usually due to a disruption in the global oil supply. This can result from geopolitical events, natural disasters, or other factors that impact the production or distribution of oil on a large scale. Oil shocks have historically had profound effects on the global economy, often leading to economic recessions and changes in economic policies. The 1970s witnessed two major oil shocks: 1973 Oil Crisis: Trigger: The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), consisting of Arab members of the OPEC, proclaimed an oil embargo in response to the Yom Kippur War between Israel and a coalition of Arab states in October 1973. Effect: Oil prices quadrupled, leading to a significant increase in production costs for many countries. This contributed to a period of high inflation and economic recession in several oil-importing nations. 1979 Oil Crisis: Trigger: The Iranian Revolution in 1979 led to a disruption in oil production in Iran. Additionally, the Iran-Iraq War, which began in 1980, further strained oil supplies from the region. Effect: Oil prices surged again, exacerbating inflationary pressures and contributing to economic challenges in various countries. The second oil shock reinforced the economic difficulties already present from the first oil crisis. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stagflation: Stagflation is an economic phenomenon characterized by a combination of stagnant economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Typically, inflation and unemployment move in opposite directions, but during periods of stagflation, both can be high simultaneously, which poses a challenge for policymakers. In the early 1970s, inflation started to rise, driven by factors like increased government spending, loose monetary policy, and the cost-push effects of rising oil prices. The Nixon administration implemented wage and price controls in 1971 in an attempt to combat inflation, but these measures were largely unsuccessful. In 1973, the first oil shock occurred, leading to a significant spike in oil prices and contributing to inflationary pressures. In 1974, inflation reached double-digit levels, and the U.S. experienced a recession, marking a period of stagflation. In the latter part of the 1970s, there were efforts to address inflation through tighter monetary policies, but these measures initially had limited success. The second oil shock in 1979 further exacerbated inflationary pressures. It was only in the early 1980s, under the leadership of Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, that a more aggressive monetary policy was implemented to bring inflation under control. This involved raising interest rates significantly, which eventually led to a decline in inflation, albeit at the cost of a severe recession. by salvanost1
CPI CORE RATE maybe a BOTTOM for now I am posting this so all can see the path of cpi based on the core rate No statement yet but it is good to share by wavetimer3
Choosing Your Inflation Tracker: Core CPI or CPICore CPI vs CPI - Some say core CPI is a better benchmark compare to CPI data to track inflation. Knowing which way CPI inflation is going, it will sharpen our investment decision? If CPI inflation is still trending up, majority of stocks will be under pressure. However, there will be other sectors will benefit from a rising inflation. In this tutorial, we will discuss what are these inflation sectors and how we can invest or trade in them? And core CPI vs CPI, which one, we should be spending our time tracking. 3 types of crude oil for trading: • Crude Oil Futures 0.01 per barrel = $10.00 Code: CL • E-mini Crude Oil Futures 0.025 per barrel = $12.50 Code QM • Micro WTI Crude Oil 0.01 per barrel = $1.00 Code MCL Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Long08:04by konhow116
CPI tomorrowU.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow at 8:30am. If CPI comes in below 3% the stock market will rally strong. If the CPI print is an upside surprise the stock market will go red. If CPI comes in at 3.1% forecast the stock market will whipsaw and then go up. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It's a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The 2s10s yield curve is a measure of the difference in interest rates between the two-year and ten-year Treasury bonds, which generally tend to trend together with 10s yielding a premium to 2s. However, on rare occasions, the front end of the curve can become inverted as a result of the Federal Reserve (FOMC) policy intervention via raising short-term rates. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of an impending economic recession. Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Jul 12, 2023 (Jun) 08:30 TBA% 3.1% 4.0% Jun 13, 2023 (May) 08:30 4.0% 4.1% 4.9% May 10, 2023 (Apr) 08:30 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% Apr 12, 2023 (Mar) 08:30 5.0% 5.2% 6.0% Mar 14, 2023 (Feb) 08:30 6.0% 6.0% 6.4% Feb 14, 2023 (Jan) 09:30 6.4% 6.2% 6.5% Jan 12, 2023 (Dec) 09:30 6.5% 6.5% 7.1% Dec 13, 2022 (Nov) 09:30 7.1% 7.3% 7.8% Nov 10, 2022 (Oct) 09:30 7.7% 8.0% 8.2% Oct 13, 2022 (Sep) 08:30 8.2% 8.1% 8.2% Sep 13, 2022 (Aug) 08:30 8.3% 8.1% 8.5% Aug 10, 2022 (Jul) 08:30 8.5% 8.7% 9.1% Jul 13, 2022 (Jun) 08:30 9.1% 8.8% 8.6% Jun 10, 2022 (May) 08:30 8.6% 8.3% 8.3% May 11, 2022 (Apr) 08:30 8.3% 8.1% 8.5% Apr 12, 2022 (Mar) 08:30 8.5% 8.4% 7.9% Mar 10, 2022 (Feb) 09:30 7.9% 7.9% 7.5% Feb 10, 2022 (Jan) 09:30 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% Jan 12, 2022 (Dec) 09:30 7.0% 7.0% 6.8% Dec 10, 2021 (Nov) 09:30 6.8% 6.8% 6.2% Nov 10, 2021 (Oct) 09:30 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% Oct 13, 2021 (Sep) 08:30 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% Sep 14, 2021 (Aug) 08:30 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% Aug 11, 2021 (Jul) 08:30 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% Jul 13, 2021 (Jun) 08:30 5.4% 4.9% 5.0% Jun 10, 2021 (May) 08:30 5.0% 4.7% 4.2% May 12, 2021 (Apr) 08:30 4.2% 3.6% 2.6% Apr 13, 2021 (Mar) 08:30 2.6% 2.5% 1.7% Mar 10, 2021 (Feb) 09:30 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% Feb 10, 2021 (Jan) 09:30 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% Educationby Options360Updated 10103
Inflation (CPI) - A Battle Already LostInflation ( CPI ) - A Battle Already Lost I've recently shared my outlook on CPI and where I think its headed in the months ahead but after further review, it seems that I've previously overlooked certain signals which should have altered my perspective in a way that it did not. Based on discovery of those signals, I have now updated my anticipatory CPI chart to highlight certain levels of interest. As we can see on the wavemap, the Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) has broken above its 40+ year bearish trend line. The breakout was very strong and should be considered as very significant. The format of the wave during this breakout has developed as what seems to likely be a zig-zag formation. Noticeably, the upside zig-zag wave has retraced 90% of the 40 year long bearish drawdown. Therefore, leaving little probability of it being a truly corrective wave. Aside from the macro bear trend-line, I have also highlighted the newly respected bullish trend-line. Finding resistance near 6.77, Fibonacci measurements suggest that the pending action will fall to retest the former price containing trend line and maybe even drop below it. Specifically, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that 0.99-1.01 should be the downside target range. Over the past 20 years, this level has also supplied nearly unbeatable support. If support is once again discovered near 1.00, the currently active wave could then be sent to retest the red bullish trend, at a level near 9-10. Ultimately, completion of the blue diagonal will signify that the CPI (and inflation) area headed for upside levels that the American economy has never witnessed. Personally, I believe that inflation is a byproduct of capitalism and there is no true containment possible. The next decade will prove to show if this is on point or simply farce.by DigitalSurfTrading2
Will Jobs data have to suffer in order to get inflation down ?In the 80's it looks like it took very high interest rates to combat the high inflation in the 1980's. With the GOP looking into stopping Bidens spending habits we may possibly be ready for the unemployment to move up and our economy will do some suffering. Still, Unemployment is low, and inflation is hot. If the jobs data stay sideways this holds the door open for a more hawkish fed. The large difference in the 80's is we had Reagan in office, and he was not a senile wimp. I think the Feds are about to step up their game. So get ready traders!by BamaGapster1
Elliott Wave Science Meets the Consumer Price IndexIt would be awesome if TradingView offered a candlestick chart for CPI but considering its only updated once per month, maybe the line graph/chart is the best option (not sure how that works). As for the data available to me, I've done a best effort markup using the science of Elliott Wave Theory. Considering the fluctuations seen on the M(onthly) chart, I believe its possible that CPI is sitting in the midst of a shallow Wave 4 correction. With this in mind, I find it possible that the number stretches into the low-mid 7.xx range between now and March. From there we may see a 2023 low within the 4.xx level. I will share my thoughts here as I know there is much interest in "what will the CPI numbers be?"... Being that this CPI data is directly based on the actions of humans and the habits that we act on, it should work pretty well with Elliott Wave Theory. I will keep this post fluid and apply analytical updates as monthly results are publicly announced. Remember these three important things: 1) trade the chart instead of the news and 2) stay safe /3) don't drown!by DigitalSurfTrading2
Inflation Report: 11 Jan 2023Finally there is a sense of relief. The US inflation is just on a some-what downward spiral. It's almost as if we peaked at a whopping 9.1% and now dropping to around 6%. And let's not forget all our friends abroad, like Germany where it's dropped from 10. 4 in October down to 8.6%, UK dropping from 11.1% slightly down to 10.7%, Canada's 8.1 dropped to 6.8%, France's steady 6.2%, and China's decent1.6%. And let's not forget our lekker country, South Africa where inflation has also dropped from 7.8% down to 7.4%. It's just too bad all these numbers are due to supply chain issues, war, and food shortages. But it looks like we have potentially seen the end of The Great Inflation - and now things should start to settle. Your thoughts? Trade well, live free Timon (Trader since 2003) Educationby Timonrosso3
US core CPI vs Fed Funds in periods of high inflation ...US core CPI vs Fed Funds in periods of high inflation ... The Fed has always cut BEFORE core CPI peaked as the chart suggestsby JoaoPauloPires0
INFLATION FIGHT - Pattern changed?Core CPI in blue overlayed with FED FUNDS RATE. In the 70s and 80s, FFR spikes (RED BOXES) used to fight Core Inflation (YELLOW BOXES) RED BOXES > YELLOW BOXES to stop inflation historically. RED BOX before YELLOW BOX Pattern changed? by PROTRAY111
Cpi goes up $dxy goes up everything else goes down.This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.Longby alibadshah881
Inflation always comes fighting back..... NUKE IT. Inflation always comes fighting back. You hit it with a bat, it brings a knife. You Stab it with a knife, It pulls a gun. You pull a gun, It brings a tank... NUKE IT. In the early 1980's Fed Chair Paul Volker raised the federal fund rate to a high of 19%. The inflation rate at that time was well above 10% and had been on and off for almost a decade. As usual this killed confidence in the Fed's ability to keep price stability which led to more inflation. Raising the rate continuously and rapidly is the only way to stomp the nation killer, Inflation. Now we are in a similar position, only we have historical data to use and stop ourselves from creating a decade of higher prices and lack of money for those who need it most. The Fed must swiftly raise our rate above 5%. Swiftly meaning yesterday. Yes, this brings shorter term pain. Yes, this means recession or maybe worse. BUT... Nothing is worse than hyper inflation. Don't believe me? Ask the Germans, it was so bad they birthed Adolf Hitler. Shortby Hasbula110
Fed funds rate chasing core inflationPrior to 2008 most of the time the FFR was above core inflation. We are now in a situation that we haven't been in decades where the fed is chasing inflation. The chance of the market breaking in this environment is very high. If you have the patience to wait out these macro indicators like the re-inversion of the yield curve and the catching up of the inflation rate by the FFR i think you will get amazing market deals in all asset classes. The thing is that no on knows how much time it will take. Might take 1 year might take 5 years.by BGMind_Control2
$Dxy $Usd #Cpi MTF TOPPED.This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck. Tip: If it happens to be the top. Let's just assume for a moment. Then this means.. If cpi goes down = fed rate goes down Fed rate goes down = dxy goes down Usd goes down = gold, btc, eur, jpy, chf, aud, nzd, silver all go up. Why? Well it's my assumption but inflation is too high for which fed raises rates. Cpi is what makes fed decide whether it's gonna raise or not anymore (cpi higher fed raises rates). If cpi is topped then I don't think the fed rate hike would make any difference in the market because this would be it's final and since (I believe) the market has made it's move already and as you can witness charts having supports on MAJOR tfs I don't think the raise in fed would make much difference or may do the opposite because it's what makes the cpi react that means cpi lags that means fed may not raise the rates as we have topped. Cpi what we have seen today was of AUGUST!!!!!!!!!!!! So.. Even if the fed raises rates. Then the market would already have moved by then means no reaction because it was already anticipated (or as they say.. Buy the rumors!!!!!!! Sell the Nooz!!!. The news? Fed is gonna raise the rates. Anticipation? No surprise, (rate hike anticipated by 0.75 bps !! The market has already been moving as per the anticipation. Cpi? Of course would FALL. Means what happens AFTER that? No more raises!!! (My assumptions). No raise? Reaction? Bonds go up yield goes down usd dxy goes down jpy eur gold silver btc goes up. Good luck. Shortby alibadshah88Updated 1
CPI-inflation Based on the data, it is unlikely that inflation will decrease, and if something does happen, it will likely be in a direction that can be corrected, not the end. Follow me, like, comment, and write questions.by Ario_trader1
CPI_USA CPII did not spend a lot of time on the chart because there is not much information available, but according to this chart, I predict that CPI will increase in the most optimistic state according to the forecasts.As in the DXY analysis, it was clear that the dollar was strengtheningby Ario_trader3
USCCPI * US CORE CPI consumer price indexUS CORE CPI consumer price index ::: Consumer price indices measure the average price change of all goods and services that are bought by households for consumption purposes. The Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices are calculated monthly.by Anakyn1
INFLATIONtheyre blatently lying to you just so you know. 8% is lucky closer to 9.5 in reality. good luck out thereLongby largepetrol2
US inflation (CPdue for a pullback but has much higher potentialThe exit from the 50 years wedge looks highly bullish with target between 9% to 12%. Short term is overbought so a pullback is probable but the longer term trend seems higher.Longby powerintegral3