In this chart you can see the interest rate differential for the FED versus the ECB.
I have outlined a possible scenario in rate cuts highlighting a bearish Euro/bullish US Dollar.
If the ECB will cut rates before the FED it will enlarge the differential, which is a bearish outlook for the Euro.
I posted in March 2020 that we had likely seen a generational low in yields following the spike driven by Covid fears.
We are now STILL in the early innings of a generational (at least 20 years) BULL market for inflation and yields
Position accordingly over coming years
note: this is just precaution, a risk management, a bad scenario when happen, and know why it could happen
there an article in twitter posted by Kobeissiletter (the source of picture)
it making similar movement like stagflation which potentially could see a higher inflation later
but we are not in stagflation because inflation and unemployment still low
and...
Core CPI vs CPI - Some say core CPI is a better benchmark compare to CPI data to track inflation.
Knowing which way CPI inflation is going, it will sharpen our investment decision?
If CPI inflation is still trending up, majority of stocks will be under pressure. However, there will be other sectors will benefit from a rising inflation.
In this tutorial, we will...
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow at 8:30am. If CPI comes in below 3% the stock market will rally strong. If the CPI print is an upside surprise the stock market will go red. If CPI comes in at 3.1% forecast the stock market will whipsaw and then go up.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the...
Inflation ( CPI ) - A Battle Already Lost
I've recently shared my outlook on CPI and where I think its headed in the months ahead but after further review, it seems that I've previously overlooked certain signals which should have altered my perspective in a way that it did not. Based on discovery of those signals, I have now updated my anticipatory CPI chart...
In the 80's it looks like it took very high interest rates to combat the high inflation in the 1980's. With the GOP looking into stopping Bidens spending habits we may possibly be ready for the unemployment to move up and our economy will do some suffering.
Still, Unemployment is low, and inflation is hot. If the jobs data stay sideways this holds the door open...
It would be awesome if TradingView offered a candlestick chart for CPI but considering its only updated once per month, maybe the line graph/chart is the best option (not sure how that works). As for the data available to me, I've done a best effort markup using the science of Elliott Wave Theory. Considering the fluctuations seen on the M(onthly) chart, I believe...
Finally there is a sense of relief.
The US inflation is just on a some-what downward spiral.
It's almost as if we peaked at a whopping 9.1% and now dropping to around 6%.
And let's not forget all our friends abroad, like Germany where it's dropped from 10. 4 in October down to 8.6%,
UK dropping from 11.1% slightly down to 10.7%,
Canada's 8.1 dropped to...
Core CPI in blue overlayed with FED FUNDS RATE.
In the 70s and 80s, FFR spikes (RED BOXES) used to fight Core Inflation (YELLOW BOXES)
RED BOXES > YELLOW BOXES to stop inflation historically.
RED BOX before YELLOW BOX
Pattern changed?
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Inflation always comes fighting back. You hit it with a bat, it brings a knife. You Stab it with a knife, It pulls a gun. You pull a gun, It brings a tank... NUKE IT. In the early 1980's Fed Chair Paul Volker raised the federal fund rate to a high of 19%. The inflation rate at that time was well above 10% and had been on and off for almost a decade. As usual this...
Prior to 2008 most of the time the FFR was above core inflation. We are now in a situation that we haven't been in decades where the fed is chasing inflation. The chance of the market breaking in this environment is very high. If you have the patience to wait out these macro indicators like the re-inversion of the yield curve and the catching up of the inflation...
This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Tip:
If it happens to be the top. Let's just assume for a moment. Then this means..
If cpi goes down = fed rate goes down
Fed rate goes down = dxy goes down
Usd goes down = gold,...
