ETH - LONGVery clean downtrend after half ct bought the top on this one.
We are frontrunning the D1 EMA 100 a little bit here, because the s/r flip was reacting very nicely.
Expectations are that we compress here between H4 EMAs and D1 EMA 100.
Sweeping into D1 EMA 100 is probably a good add, but I'd wait for a decent reaction and be ready to cut if things go south.
Tradfi and macro guys are starting to get uneasy here, and although we often meme that it's not relevant, it does become very relevant at big inflection points. BTC not being able to break that consolidation range and ETH struggling to make new highs, both on very good news, is not great for crypto in general.
Others have said it: there's a parallel to be seen with prices not going down in the 16k range, even though we had only bad news and things couldn't look uglier. At this point we have almost only good news and things rarely looked better for crypto, but price is.. not going up?
Just to set some basic expectations that we're playing longs here for a bounce, not for new highs; the base case is still that there is a higher probability we break to range to the downside vs. upside. Both are possible though, so just be flexible, identify levels of interest and be patient.
Good luck!
H&M