Here is a chart that shows the correlation between the market (SP500) Inflation and Jobless numbers. Jobless numbers is the golden indicator of economic strength though there are many others I look at, and many more economists look at. For our purposes, Jobless numbers show the strength of the economy. We want a LOW number. We can see jobless numbers have been on...
SP500 vs Jobless Claims
Maximo Jobless Claims = Minimo SP500
Recuperacion de la Data de Empleo ha acompanado la recuperacion del indice SP500
Maximo Jobless Claims 6.867K
The maximium FRED:ICSA since 1967 has not been more than 1m weekly (not even during 2008 or 2001), now in 2020 the US is at 6m per week (see FRED data here: fred.stlouisfed.org).
Charting economic data can help you learn more about the macro world and see the bigger picture. This chart shows weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the US. In other words, it shows you how many people are filing for unemployment each week. The big spike, which has never been seen before in economic history, shows what the COVID-19 slowdown did to the economy in...
In about an hour 7:30 CST we are going to see something we have never seen before....
With the COVID-19 starting to take significant hold of the U.S. economy I believe this week we will see a massive rise in unemployment insurance claims that will translate to massive unemployment. My current estimates are anywhere from four to eight million if you use Canada...
Based on research compiled by SouthBay, for tomorrow's historical data print for jobless claims.
The SouthBay data shows a 66% y/y drop in hiring (-44% week-over-week), with the heaviest concentration in... . In 2009, when jobless claims were surging at a comparable rate, they were running at 600k initial claims per week. But we didn't have complete...
On August 13th, 2019, I said this in my recession analysis:
"I think will be born out of the next recession. And I believe that the next recession is most likely less than 18 months away."
-Referenced analysis attached blow-
Here we are, roughly seven months later, and my recession indicator has officially given the signal, showing that the economy is now...
With the coronavirus slowing down global economies, and now oil collapsing with treasury yields, there is an increasing chance that we could be entering a recession. This is my recession indicator. If you're a long time follower of mine, you're probably familiar with this chart. Here is the breakdown...
The pink line graph on the chart is the S&P500 , and I'm...
Alright, let's talk recessions. For those who aren't familiar with this chart, it's a recession indicator that I put together a while back, that I like to follow as a baseline indication of recession in the economy. There are other indicators that I look at in addition to this, but this is my favorite.
The pink line graph on the chart is the S&P500 , and I'm...
It's a very long view, so It may take some time but i think it will happen. I do not recommend to buy equity at this point and looking for sell opportunity. We need to wait for conformation on MA's cross.
This primary indicator just flashed a huge warning signal. Looking like its time to sell and take profits on the enormous post GFC rally. Note - keep a close watch on weekly claims in the coming weeks. We still want a little bit more confirmation of this rising before jumping to conclusions about the direction of unemployment, but I do not take this cross...
Taking another look at my recession indicator, you can see that there still has not been a crossover of the orange and purple moving averages, which has historically been a precursor of recession. For those who aren't familiar with this chart, it's a recession indicator that I put together, that I like to follow as a baseline indication of recession in the...
