Initial Claims FRED:​ICSA

Jobless claims indicator has been a reliable indicator of recessions. By examining a historical chart that goes back to 1960s we see a similar pattern in the behavior of claims and recessions. Every single recession the U.S. encountered in the underlying period was preceded by a rise in jobless claims. The chart above draws the quarterly jobless claims. The ...

Unemployment data is clearly one of if not the most important data sets when it comes to predicting a recession. With unemployment at very long term lows, when does this break, and what happens when it does? For me, I watch exponential moving average crossovers in unemployment data. Initial claims works if you smooth it out (it's a high frequency data series). ...

On the chart is the 4-week average of jobless claims. Prior to the past three recessions in 2007, 2001 and 1991, the jobless claims average was near the current levels. Cyclically, Jobless claims is probably much closer to rising then falling. As we approach the 7th year since exiting the last recession, the average of jobless claims is at the bottom of its range ...

Jobless claims continue to trend down within relevant descending range. Currently reached a cyclical low, last seen in 2000 and 2006. Thus the short term unemployment indicator shows that on one hand, situation is improving, but on the other hand it will be difficult to trade lower - and a cyclical upturn in Jobless Claims could be in the cards.

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