Just my perspective on NASDAQThis is just my perspective on how NASDAQ will move in the coming days. This is purely based on the area of the confluence trap, Demand, and supply.by corestrategytraderUpdated 0
Daily Market Update for 1/21Summary: That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 21, 2022 Facts: -2.72%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 1%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Fourth failed rally attempt this week, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick with large red body. No lower wick. Advance/Decline: 0.24, four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.89%), DJI (-1.30%), RUT (-1.78%), VIX (+12.74%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview That’s four days in a row with a long upper wick from a failed morning rally and a dismal closing range under 10%. Panic sets in for investors as the Fed's rate hike decision approaches to fight higher inflation while risking the possibility of a recession. The Nasdaq declined -2.72% to end its worst week since the pandemic began and its fourth weekly decline in a row. Volume was higher than the previous day. The candle looks just like the other four this week, with a long upper wick from a failed rally turning to a large red body and no lower wick. The closing range was just 1% under a 68% red body. There were four declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -1.89% to close below its 200d moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -1.30%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gave up -1.78%. The VIX Volatility Index continued to soar with a +12.74% rise on Friday. Only Consumer Staples (XLP +0.08%) advanced for the day. The other defensive sectors of Real Estate (XLRE -0.06%) and Utilities (XLU -0.19%) were the next two in the sector list. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.93%) and Communications (XLC -3.38%) were at the bottom. Retail Sales in the UK and Canada for December echoed the US result, missing targets and declining month-over-month. The US Dollar index (DXY) was fairly steady for the week, declining -0.14% on Friday. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Bonds all declined as investors moved to the safety of bonds vs the volatility in equities. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices tracked Treasuries higher (Yields lower, Prices higher). Silver and Gold both moved lower for the day. Crude Oil Futures, Timber, Copper and Aluminum Futures all sank. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 1.15, the most bearish reading since March 2020. The CNN Fear & Greed index floated back into the fear range. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four largest mega-caps declined. Amazon (AMZN) continues to fall more than the others, declining -5.95% on Friday. Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped -2.22%. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) faired a bit better, declining -1.28% and -1.85%. Only four mega-caps gained for the day. Abbot Laboratories (ABT) was the top gainer, gaining 0.90%. The biggest loser in the list was Walt Disney (DIS) which lost -6.94%, possibly weighted down by Netflix's disappointing subscriber growth. Alibaba (BABA) was also at the bottom of the list after topping it several days this week. It gave back the intraweek gains, declining -5.95% on Friday. In the Daily Update Growth List, only two stocks advanced. Peloton (PTON) gained +11.73%, bouncing back from a -24% decline the previous day. Beyond Meat (BYND) squeezed out a +0.29% advance. At the bottom of the list was Netflix, ending the day with a -21.79% decline. The company reported slower than expected subscriber growth. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead The big news next week will be the Fed's rate increase decision on Wednesday. Also impacting the market will be earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft and Tesla, the largest of the big hitters reporting next week. Monday will bring the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager Index data for January, a forward-looking indicator on economic performance. Earnings reports on Monday include IBM (IBM) and Haliburton (HAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index is now -15% below its all-time high. The five-day trend line and the trend line from the 1/12 high both point to a +0.49% advance for the index if it returns to the longer trends. The one-day trend line leads to a -1.39% decline for Monday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up A painful week ends with investors at their most bearish level since the March 2020 crash. Some people call for further pain as a bubble of speculative investments over the past two years bursts. Others are saying this looks like the correction we needed and this could be the bottom. What do the charts and indicators tell us? The Nasdaq chart is dismal. It has no indication of stopping the decline. Every rally attempt this week failed and three of the four days showed distribution from institutional investors, marked by high volume declines. The percentage of stocks above their 200d and 50d moving averages are both at their lowest since the pandemic began. However, they have seen lower levels during the start of the pandemic and in late 2018 and early 2016. So these indicators could go lower. Treasury Bond yields rose sharply the previous week on speculation that the Fed would initiate interest rate hikes with a 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 25 basis points. That uncertainty and volatility in bonds just further tanked equities. One could look at the Fed's decision on Wednesday as a point of stabilization, especially if the Fed confirms the 25 basis point expectation. Investor sentiment often hits extremes around reversals. The put/call ratio rose to its highest (most bearish) point since March 2020, and the first time since 2020 that there were more puts than calls in the market. The CNN Fear & Greed index is not in Extreme Fear, however four out of seven of its subcomponents are there. The NAAIM money manager exposure index is below 60, where it typically bottoms and moves higher as money managers buy the dip. History tells us that equities typically decline leading up to rate hikes and then rise after rate hikes. However, we are in unprecedented times after historic low interest rates and massive QE causing the highest level of inflation since the 1980s. That potentially requires a very hawkish fed to bring it under control. So is there more uncertainty ahead? The bottom line is we're still not out of the woods. Rather than trying to guess, or listen to click-bait media, wait for the market to confirm the bottom. A few days of higher volume advances with broad support across the market will tell us that institutions are back in the game. Stay healthy and trade safe! by drewby43215
Nasdaq - the bullish case (no reason to panic?)I believe we are in an expanded diagonal and could still have a couple of bullish years. It's possible (an alternative scenario) we could soon start the wave 5 of the diagonal, but I think that would be too short considering wave 1 and the proportions. Note that wave 5 isn't going to reach the 1-3 trend line so that wave 3 isn't the shortest. by PriceActionHelp225
Give me a reason for Nasdaq to go up?I look for 3 major signs in order to initiate a long term short position 1. BB Cross ... 2. RSI Cross ... 3. Macd Cross ✅ Things however do not look good... February & March are key for the rest of the year. To be honest the party was awesome and it lasted way too much and went way too high what else do you expect? Bad signs to take into consideration: 1. Everybody on the planet is involved somehow with "investing" (www.bloomberg.com) 2. Record number of SPACs (www.statista.com) 3. Failed IPOs (sing of the trend getting weaker) + they did also an IPO in way too high valuation check for yourself some of the hottest (Rivian,Robinhood,Didi,Coupang,Roblox, Airbnb, Snowflake etc etc etc) 4. Inflation running super hot & Interest rates rise ( DO NOT FIGHT THE FED) 5. Record sale of insiders sales (medium.com) 6. US 10YR rising 7. Musk sells quite a big amount of Tesla's shares (www.barrons.com) 8. Crypto casino boom & bust 9. Margin Debt all time high (www.forbes.com) 10. Technicals look awful And i am asking myself over and over again!!! especially now that the FED said interest rates going higher (money becomes more expensive, less leverage) why the heck the stock market will go up? especially when big boys are selling and retails power is drying up... WHO'S LEFT TO BUY? by Philoslother224
Korrektion mot IT-bubblan 2000-02Jämför man vad som behövs för att återställa cykeln väntar en ca 70% korrektion. De gulmarkerade är motstånd/stöd där vi kommer att röra oss ett tag till framöver.Shortby reko210
NASDAQ: what "normalization" means for expensive tech stocksHi everyone, I'm out from NASDAQ since mid-October, had a feeling that too high pricing combined with issues to come (inflation, bubble areas) will hurt bad. I'm not that experienced to post on IXIC or SPX, but I think I share what I was looking at when distancing from risky positions: - 100 week MA - 200 week MA And a dozen more reasons, including fundamental ones, but I think the distance from the above 2 explains everything. I'm watching their area as bottoming targets: if wee reach 100week before July, I'll keep watching for Target 2. If we have a solid and longer bottoming at 100 week around or later than June, I might believe that Target 2 will not come. Cheers, and happy dip buying if you have patience and self-control to wait, Antonioby antonio-schmidt1
Daily Market Update for 1/20Summary: A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 20, 2022 Facts: -1.30%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 62% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Another failed rally, closing range of 3%, volume higher on decline Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Long upper wick over a thick red body Advance/Decline: 0.36, nearly three declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.10%), DJI (-0.89%), RUT (-1.88%), VIX (+7.30%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.13%) and Financials (XLF -0.64%) at the top. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A morning rally attempt failed, turning into more declines for the major indexes. Chinese stocks outperformed after China cut interest rates. The Nasdaq closed with a -1.30% loss. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking another distribution day. The failed morning rally created a long upper wick that sits over a 62% red body. There is a tiny lower wick, leaving the candle with a 3% closing range. Nearly three stocks declined for every stock that advanced. The Russell 2000 (RUT) continued to sell-off more than the other indexes, declining -1.88% today. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.10%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell -0.89%. The VIX Volatility Index rose +7.30%. Only the Utilities (XLU +0.13%) sector ended the day with a gain. Financials (-0.64%) was the second best sector for the day, helped by some positive earnings reports from banks in the morning. Materials (XLB -1.45%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.82%) were at the bottom of the sector list. Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecast, coming in at 286,000 compared to the forecast of 220,000. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January printed 23.2 compared to the expectation of 20.0. That was welcome news after the NY Manufacturing Index showed worsening conditions with a negative print. Existing Home Sales for December was under the forecast by 4%. Crude Oil Inventories was higher than expected, marking some fall back in demand. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.16%. US 30y, 10y and 2y Treasury Yields all declined. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to slide while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices seemed to bottom. Silver continued to rise sharply while Gold declined. Aluminum Futures are reaching back toward record highs. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.816. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to Neutral, from the Greed area yesterday. The NAAIM money manager exposure index declined to 56.73 from 74.78 the previous week. All four mega-caps declined today. Amazon (AMZN) continued to tumble, with a -2.96% decline. The stock is nearly 20% off its all-time high. Alphabet (GOOGL) closed just above its 200d moving average, losing -1.34% today. Apple (AAPL) made an attempt to get back above its 50d moving average, but ended the day with a -1.03% loss. Microsoft (MSFT) declined -0.57%. Top performing stocks for the day in both the mega-cap and growth list were Chinese companies. Alibaba (BABA) sat at the top of the mega-cap list with a +2.58% advance. At the bottom of the list was Nvidia (NVDA), declining -3.66% today as the entire semiconductor segment continues to lose ground. The top five stocks in the Daily Update Growth List were all Chinese, with Ehang Holdings (EH)leading the charge and gaining +11.40%. At the bottom of the growth list was Peloton (PTON). The company dropped -23.93% after news hit that they would be halting production of bikes and treadmills. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for the UK and Canada will come overnight. Otherwise, there is not much economic news in the calendar for Friday. Schlumberger (SLB) and Huntington Bacnshares (HBAN) report earnings in the morning. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to tumble as it doesn’t seem to be catching any support areas. The index is -12.70% below its all-time high. If the index can return to the trend line from the 12/28 high, it would require a +1.37% advance on Friday. The five-day trend line points to a +0.35% gain. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -1.86% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Pain, pain, pain. It's tough to watch the failed rally attempts turn into significant losses day after day this week. The strengthening dollar today and rising Treasury prices both point to money coming back into the US market. If that can continue, we should see some support in US equity markets as investors look for greater returns. Based on the chart, the index is not giving us any indication of a reversal, so the expectation for tomorrow remains Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe! by drewby432110
Daily Market Update for 1/19Summary: Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 19, 2022 Facts: -1.15%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 3%, Body: 74% Red Good: Lower volume Bad: Lost the 14,500 support area, low closing range Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, long upper wick, no lower wick Advance/Decline: 0.51, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-0.97%), DJI (-0.96%), RUT (-1.60%), VIX (+4.65%) Sector List: Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways or Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets continued to fall as actions from a more hawkish Fed loom in the near future. Two rally attempts in the Nasdaq couldn't hold on today and investors fled to defensive sectors. The Nasdaq finished with a -1.15% decline. Volume was lower than the previous day. A long upper wick was formed from a morning rally that failed. The rest of the candle is 74% red body, leaving behind practically no lower wick and a 3% closing range. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The Russell 2000 (RUT) led the losses for another day, dropping -1.60%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.97% and -0.96%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.65%. Only two sectors in the S&P 500 finished the day with gains, both defensive sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.63%) and Utilities (XLU +0.45%) were at the top of the sector list. Financials (XLF -1.68%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.80%) were at the bottom. Building Permits and Housing Starts data exceeded expectations for December. There were 1.87m Building Permits compared to the forecast of 1.70m. And there were 1.70m Housing Starts compared to a forecast of 1.65m. Consumer Price Index data from the UK and Canada were both higher than expected. The US Dollar index (DXY) dropped by -0.11%. The US 30y and 10y Treasury Yields receded a bit while the 2y Treasury Yield rose slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices continued to fall while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold both rose sharply for the day. The put/call ratio (PCCE) dropped to 0.717 as some investors may be seeing a bounce from here. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back into Greed, from a Neutral level yesterday. Of the four largest mega-caps, only Microsoft (MSFT) advanced for the day although it gave back much of its intraday gains. The stock ended the day with a +0.22% advance. Apple (AAPL) joined the other three in closing below its 50d moving average, dropping -2.10% today. Alphabet (GOOGL) declined -0.65% while Amazon (AMZN) fell -1.65%. Proctor & Gamble (PG) was the top mega-cap, rising +3.36% on a solid earnings report released in the premarket. The company stated that prices will continue to rise. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -3.38% today. Nvidia (NVDA) also declined more than -3%. Peloton (PTON) was the top stock in the Daily Update Growth List. The stock climbed +5.33% after the company announced it would be cutting staff and other fixed costs, improving the profitability in the company despite slower growth. Digital Turbine (APPS) was at the bottom of the list, losing -6.08%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Tomorrow morning will bring the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. We will also get the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index. The NY index showed worsening conditions for January. After the market opens, Existing Home Sales data will be available. Crude Oil Inventories will come later in the morning. Overnight, inflation data for Europe will be made available. Tomorrow's earnings reports include Netflix (NFLX), CSX (CSX), Travelers (TRV), Fifth Third (FITB), KeyCorp (KEY), and American Airlines (AAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq continues to lose support areas as it moved well into correction territory, down -11.55% from the all-time high. If the index moves back to the 12/29 trend line, that would mean a +0.68% advanced tomorrow. The one-day and five-day trend lines point to a -0.78% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up The pain continues. However, Treasury Yields showed some leveling off today. With some surprise economic data or better earnings reports, we could see a bounce over the next day or two. That won't give us much indication of whether the bounce would hold into next week. Confidence will only come when we see a rotation back into growth sectors that’s broadly shared across the Nasdaq (high advance/decline ratio) and a an advance on higher volume. Based on the chart and today's intraday moves, the expectation is for Sideways or Lower tomorrow. Stay healthy and trade safe! by drewby43219
IXIC NASDAQ SHORTJust simple analysis combined with the meeting on Wednesday, its looking for support lets see where we land.Shortby StayoA1Updated 0
Nasdaq 2022-2024Some ideas on how nasdaq might play out in the upcoming years. This is an abstract painting i made out of my imagination, do not take my graphs seriously. Look first/ Then Leapby PhiloslotherUpdated 3
Even better look at the Nasdaq Fibonacci levels. Great levels of the nasdaq. Watch for continued sell off. by Section31330
Next up on the NASDAQ looks to be October LowsVery simple chart here with Fibonacci retracement levels. Looks like we’re heading to 14,161 on the NASDAQ. They should be good support there but possibly for a little more fall in my opinionby Section31330
Daily Market Update for 1/18Summary: Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, January 18, 2022 Facts: -2.60%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 9%, Body: 68% Red Good: Nothing Bad: Move below 200d moving average on higher volume Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Thick red body with longer upper wick Advance/Decline: 0.23, more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.84%), DJI (-1.51%), RUT (-3.06%), VIX (+18.76%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +0.40%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.68%) at the top. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) at the bottom. Expectation: -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Equity markets fell for another day as Treasury bond yields hit their highest level since the pandemic began. The Nasdaq (IXIC) dropped -2.60% today. Volume was higher than the previous day, marking a significant distribution day for the index. The closing range of 9% comes below a red body that covers 68% of the candle. The longer upper wick was formed in the morning as the index attempted to move back above the 200d moving average but hit resistance. There were more than four declining stocks for every advancing stock. Small-caps had the most significant decline. The Russell 2000 (RUT) dropped -3.06%. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.84% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost -1.51%. The VIX Volatility Index shot up +18.76%. Of the S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +0.40%) gained for the day. Financials (XLF -2.23%) and Technology (XLK -2.40%) were at the bottom of the list. Financials was pulled down by disappointing earnings reports from Goldman Sachs. The Technology sector tends to be most sensitive to rising Treasury yields. To further dampen market sentiment, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in less than zero at -0.70 compared to the forecast of 25.70. The negative number indicates worsening conditions. The US Dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.50% today. The dollar strengthened that last three days. The US 10y and 2y Treasury Yields rose sharply, reaching their highest levels since the beginning of 2020. The US 30y Treasury Yield also rose. The gap between long and short term yields continues to tighten. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices also dropped sharply, tracking with Treasury prices (Yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures are nearing a new high. Silver rose despite the strengthening dollar. Gold declined. Timber (WOOD) prices fell sharply after hitting its highest point since May. The put/call ratio declined to 0.799. The CNN Fear & Greed index is hovering around Neutral. All four largest mega-caps declined for the day. Apple (AAPL) is the only of the four remaining above its 50d moving average line, declining -1.89% today. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) lost -2.43% and -2.50% as they both approach the 200d moving average. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was the best-performing mega-cap for the day, climbing +1.68%. The only other mega-cap to gain more than 1% was Eli Lilly (LLY) closing the day with a +1.21% gain. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Qualcomm (QCOM) were at the bottom of the mega-cap list with -4.86% and -5.21% declines. Chinese fintech companies topped the Daily Update Growth List. FUTU Holding (FUTU) and UP Fintech (TIGR) gained +3.85% and +2.97%. The largest losses in the list came from Cloudflare (NET), declining -6.64%, and Lemonade (LMND), falling -6.67%. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Build Permits and Housing Starts data for December will be available in the morning before the market opens. We'll also get inflation data for the UK and Canada overnight. UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and United Airlines (UAL) are among the earnings reports for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index closed above the 14,500 resistance/support area. If the index returns to the trend line from the 12/28 high, that would mean a +0.27% gain for tomorrow. The five-day trend line points to a -0.22% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect a -1.10% decline for Wednesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up I mentioned on Friday that we'll continue to feel pain until the Bond market stabilizes. With yields spiking today, that meant more price declines for the major indexes and nearly all sectors. Maybe we'll see a bounce in the right direction tomorrow, but much of that depends on Treasury yields. Based on the chart, the expectation is for Lower on Wednesday. Stay healthy and trade safe! by drewby43216
$IXIC - Nasdaq Composite Looking Vulnerable It may be time to be looking for a real correction in the indices. It's been rough under the hood for sometime. It may be time for the big liquid leaders to give up some ground. I'm mostly cash right now looking for short set-ups. Not too much looking good to me on the long side. However, this can change on a dime. I'm not making any predictions, just watching the chart unfold. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.by jaxdog110
Nasdaq (IXIC) | The best scenario for the fallHello traders, Nasdaq (IXIC) in daily timeframe , this analysis has been prepared in daily timeframe but has been published for a better view in 2 day timeframe. By looking at the waves, Waves 1 and 2 are probably over at weekly time, and this analysis and this wave count is part of Wave 3. Wave 3 that we are talking about is not on the Fibonacci in the weekly time that can be reversed, and only we considered this correction by counting the wave in the daily time. In daily time, waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 is in excellent condition in terms of appearance, but it is not in good shape relative to wave 1. Waves 2 and 4 are very similar both in appearance and correction, causing the wave count to be not normal. However, there are exceptions in the waves. We gave the possibility of correction, provided that the trend line is completely broken, and now this failure has taken place to some extent. We determine the nature of this correction and this wave after completion, but in the first movement of this wave, I think the movements occur in the form of five waves. If the end of wave 5 is broken, the complete analysis of the field will not be done, but this correction will be done in a short time. 🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏 ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️Shortby mahdisoltaninjad1110
Daily Market Update for 1/14Summary: Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, January 14, 2022 Facts: +0.59%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 98%, Body: 89% Green Good: Support at 200d MA, gain on higher volume, high closing range Bad: Lower high and low, lower weekly close Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly green body, tiny wicks Advance/Decline: 0.83, more declining than advancing stocks Indexes: SPX (+0.08%), DJI (-0.56%), RUT (+0.14%), VIX (-5.51%) Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the top. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Markets were mixed on Friday after Q4 earnings reports from JP Morgan and Citigroup disappointed investors. However, Energy and Tech stocks closed the day higher, helping the Nasdaq recover some of yesterday's loss. The Nasdaq finished the day with a +0.59% gain. The candle is mostly green body, and the closing range of 98% comes on higher volume than the previous day. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) was the only index to decline, losing -0.56% today, weighed down by large financial institutions and industrial sector stocks. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.08%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) climbed by +0.14%. The VIX Volatility Index fell -5.51%. Energy (XLE +2.35%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) were the top sectors for the day. Financials (XLF -1.04%) and Real Estate (XLRE -1.17%) we at the bottom of the sector list. Retail Sales in December declined more than expected month-over-month, dropping -1.9% compared to a forecast of -0.1%. Industrial Production was also lower than expected. Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for January is also lower than expected, likely impacted by the surge in Omicron cases across the US. The US dollar strengthened after weakening significantly earlier in the week. The dollar index (DXY) rose +0.32% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices declined, tracking with treasury prices (yields rise, prices drop). Crude Oil Futures continues to track higher, nearing the high levels in October. The put/call ratio rose to 0.875. The CNN Fear & Greed index is at Neutral but moved toward the Greed side. All four largest mega-caps gained. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant gain after declining the most among the four yesterday. It gained +1.77% today. Apple (AAPL) gained +0.51% after hitting resistance at its 21d EMA. All four charts are not looking great, with Amazon (AMZN) struggling the most, 14% below its all-time and 52-week high. Wells Fargo (WFC) topped the mega-cap chart, defying the rest of the Financial sector with an earnings beat and profits growing 86%. On the other end of the mega-cap list is JP Morgan Chase (JPM), which fell -6.15% after missing street revenue estimates. The Daily Update Growth List had a good number of winners today, but most stocks in the list declined. At the top of the list is Futu Holdings (FUTU), with a +3.31% gain. That was followed by another Chinese stock, JD.com (JD), which gained +3.19%. Beyond Meat (BYND) was at the bottom of the list, giving back some of its recent gains with a -6.0% decline today. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr Holiday. Tuesday will open with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock will come after the market closes. Bank of America (BAC), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Goldman Sachs (GS), PNC Financial (PNC) are some of the big financial company earnings reports for Tuesday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The Nasdaq got support around the 200d moving average today before closing higher. The index remains below the 15,000 support/resistance area. If the index returns to the five-day trend line, expect a +0.72% gain on Tuesday. The one-day trend line would result in a -0.27% gain. Returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high would result in a -1.57% decline to start the week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It was a crazy week. Monday and Tuesday looked good as the Nasdaq seemed to catch a bottom intraday on Monday and end the day with a gain on higher volume. Tuesday continued that momentum, but then sentiment turned on Wednesday as more rate increases in 2022 seemed likely from Fed officials' public statements. That resulted in a crushing loss on Thursday and a loss for the week despite some support on Friday. Only two sectors closed the week with gains. Energy rose +5% this week after gaining +10% last week. Communications somehow pulled out a +0.16% for the week. Real Estate was the worst-performing sector for the week as investors anticipate higher interest rates to impact profitability in the sector. The percentage of stocks above their 50d moving averages is still in the low 40% range. That's better than December when it was near 20% for the 50d, but we'd like to see the number near 60%. We need to see some stabilization in the US dollar and the bond market that signals investors are more confident about the Fed's playbook for 2022 (the speed of tapering, the number of interest rate hikes, and the run-off of balance sheet assets). Once that happens, volatility should finally recede a bit in equity markets. Until then, we'll continue to feel some pain and possibly a little more correction. We've only seen a -10% drop from the top for the Nasdaq. The expectation for Tuesday is Sideways. Stay healthy and trade safe! by drewby4321227
The Bigger Picture - Asset MarketsToday I will be attempting to explain and predict the future trajectory of U.S. asset markets. *FULL DISCLOSURE* >My current investments include PUT options on full market ETFs such as ARKK, funds, and treasury bills (TLT). My investments also include call credit spread options on many Cryptocurrency stocks and portfolios with expirations within 1.5 years. I do not trade on margin, and I do not work within an investment agency that specializes in providing advice to non-investors. >Investments are risky and subject to considerable losses. Please perform your own research or speak to a trusted advisor before engaging in any type of investment. PREFACE *The US markets have currently embarked on one of the greatest bull runs in history, with access to capital and stimulus being at the highest peak in decades if not a century. When the COVID-19 pandemic first began, markets panicked as future uncertainty gave way to extreme volatility by means of unprecedented risk factors. As the markets fell, and halts were triggered, investors had to make risky decisions on how to trade in an environment completely foreign to them. Scaling lockdowns, decreased employment, and society on the verge of mass hysteria led to complete and catastrophic withdrawal from markets everywhere. This, of course, led to tantalizing prices at the bottom of the fall once stimulus was expected to come in the following months. Companies knew that with citizens now flushed with cash (that many may not have even needed in the first place) would lead to an excess in spending and an increase in prices. At the bottom of the selloff cycle, BOLs (buyers of last resort) stepped in and saved the market. It was then that the bull market of 2020-2021 began. EXPLANATION OF POSITION *Once a market bottom was triggered, it was off to the races. Of course investors knew that while outlook would improve, there was no way that corporations were going to be able to maintain steady future growth during this volatile time with respect to past profits. My assumption remains that the drastic turn from bear to bull market was not from the expectations that company profits would skyrocket beyond previous years, as this would be illogical and historically false. The idea was to sell hope. To sell "growth". To sell potential. Ideas like "growth" and "potential" when used as a measure of a companies value are inherently risky indicators, but extremely intelligent to market. After all, if you can take a new company with no historical balance sheet data and create a narrative around it, there are no arguments against it as one cannot prove that significant growth will not occur in the future. Similar tactics were used during the dotcom boom of the late 1990s-2000. If there are no fundamental aspects of a company yet to be analyzed, investors cannot make informed decisions about the future solvency of the company. This is a perfect investment scheme, as theories surrounding the future outlook of a company can neither be proved nor disproved as there is no data available for unprecedented circumstances. FUTURE PREDICTION It is my belief that we have reached a point where all capital that can be utilized to purchase assets has been expended. Narrative and sentiment is historically retrospective, and only months after a bubble has burst will we see the effects. My prediction is that the bubble burst late October-mid November. Like a rocket that has launched from earth, the burners turn off before the rocket ever loses momentum. I believe that momentum is starting to fade. My chart notes a few significant indicators. Healthy corrections are market by drawn elipses and "thumbs-up" symbols. The trend that signals an abnormal correction and potential peak is marked by a red flag. Media outlets will have you believe that the reason for rises and falls in the market somehow pertain to the current pandemic, but this is false. The market only cares and operates under one concept. Money. Who has it? Who is spending it, and on what? Is there a low supply or high supply flowing into markets? The pandemic has changed the rules on how and where money is spent, but not significantly. Retail investors are most likely seen by investment firms as sources of income instead of valued opponents within the market. As retail trading volume falls, Investment firms previously working in tandem to feed off of unsuspecting consumers investment capital, will soon begin to feed off of each other as retail investor capital dries up. Corporate cannabalism, stripping each other of funds through the same manipulation they used to strip retail investors of theirs. When this happens, the market experiences significant volatility (imagine Godzilla and Optimus Prime fighting each other, destroying an entire city as they battle). In the end, the city will be the market and the citizens will be the ones that pay the price. Below are my current official predictions. 1.) We are currently experiencing a fall in asset prices due to the FEAR of FUTURE rate increases. This will pale in comparison to the ACTUAL EVENT of rate increases, solidifying it in reality. 2.) Global markets will endure significant turmoil as spillover from various foreign economic crises reach domestic soil. (China credit crisis and real estate failure) 3.) Because monetary policy has already been pushed to its limit, the FED will struggle to find new tools to maintain equilibrium in a time when the market begins crashing while rates are already near 0. This is an extremely dangerous place to be. 4.) Sentiment will shift to negative extremes and the suspension of disbelief will be broken as investors scramble to their exit strategies in a market that has locked all doors out. 5.) The NASDAQ will fall below 9,000 and find support, only to trend sideways for years. 6.) IPOs and SPAC mergers will fail and create a significant credit crisis as the US government does not have the funds to bail out so many failing companies at once during a time when our debt ceiling is already at its limit. 7.) Markets will (in future months/years) return to normal functioning, however, with significantly decreased volume and sentiment. We are all audience to a magnificent orchestral performance. Now, the piece is reaching its final crescendo. As the players stand and take their bow, the greatest fools will be revealed, and we may find that the fools look a lot like ourselves.Shortby ProjectIcarus8827
Daily Market Update for 1/13Summary: Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, January 13, 2022 Facts: -2.51%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 5%, Body: 92% Red Good: Close above 200d MA, volume lower on decline Bad: Thick red body, selling all-day, failed support at 15,000 Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Mostly red body, tiny upper and lower wicks Advance/Decline: 0.48, two declining stocks for every advancing stock Indexes: SPX (-1.42%), DJI (-0.49%), RUT (-0.76%), VIX (+15.27%) Sector List: Utilities (XLU +0.49%) and Industrials (XLI +0.22%) at the top. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) at the bottom. Expectation: Lower -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview Tech stocks sold off this week's gains in a reversal for the Nasdaq. Investors took profits as the Fed talked more about rate hikes in public comments. The Nasdaq closed with a -2.51% decline, returning to the trend line from the 12/28 high. Volume was lower than the previous day. The closing range was only 5%, coming underneath a 92% red body. There were two declining stocks for every advancing stock. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed -1.42% lower, led by growth sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined -0.49%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -0.76%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +15.27%. Only three sectors ended the day with gains, led by the defensive sector of Utilities (XLU +0.49%). Industrials (XLI +0.22%) was the next best sector, followed by Consumer Staples (XLP +0.18%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.01%) and Technology (XLK -2.59%) had the most significant losses. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in lower than expected, growing only 2% month-over-month compared to the analyst forecast of 0.4%. That could indicate inflation is topping out as the producer price index is a forward-looking view on consumer price increases. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims was 230,000, higher than the expected 200,000. The US Dollar index (DXY) continued lower, declining -0.13% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all fell. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices dropped, but Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Timber (WOOD) continues to climb higher while other commodities pulled back from recent gains. The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.781. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved back to neutral. The NAAIM money manager exposure index decreased to 74.78. All four largest mega-caps decline. Apple (AAPL) moved back below its 21d EMA with a -1.90% decline. Microsoft (MSFT) had the most significant loss of the four, dropping -4.23% today. Amazon (AMZN) lost -2.42%, and Alphabet (GOOGL) fell -2.01%. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) topped the mega-cap list, gaining +5.26% after an exceptional earnings report before the market opened. Tesla (TSLA) was at the bottom of the list with a -6.75% decline. Only three stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the list with a +4.75% gain, defying gravity today thanks to high short interest and a continued bullish sentiment from the Kentucky Fried Chicken deal. CloudFlare (NET) took the brunt of the profit-taking, declining -13.15% to give back all the gains this week and close at its lowest level year-to-date. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Retail Sales data for December will be available in the morning. We'll also get numbers for Industrial Production for December. The Michigan Consumer Expectations and Consumer Sentiment Data for January will be available after the market opens. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance If the index can return to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +2.52% advance tomorrow. The trend line from the 12/28 high points to a -0.44% decline. If the one-day trend continues, expect another -2.37% decline for Friday. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up It's painful to watch, but the market is still figuring out how often and how quickly the Fed will increase rates this year to control inflation. As investors and analysts hang on every word of Fed officials' public statements, they re-evaluate the impact on the bond and equity markets. We can expect more volatility as the month progresses. Based on the broken support today and a new intra-week low, the expectation for tomorrow is Lower. Stay healthy and trade safe! by drewby43217
OMG! FUTURE IS SO UNPREDICTABLE! (NO)I'll keep it stupid simple, Humanity is pretty damn simple, and since July 1945 it can only: Totally vanish via nuclear annihilation. OR Infinitely expand. With that perspective in mind.. Upcoming RECESSION is just another relatively tiny fluctuation in a huge stream of humanity's will to expand. Good, isn't it? NO! Because the probability that the humanity will choose the first path is actually getting higher with every second. by BillyHomelessUpdated 6
Daily Market Update for 1/12Summary: A rally back into large-cap stocks drove the major indexes higher on Wednesday, while small-caps fell back. Consumer Price Index data for December was higher than forecast, but investors remained confident that the Fed would remain vigilant in controlling inflation in 2022. Notes Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, January 12, 2022 Facts: +0.23%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 35%, Body: 37% Red Good: Higher high and higher low Bad: Red body, fade after topping 15,200 Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low Candle: Red body in middle of equal length wicks Advance/Decline: 0.71, more declining stocks than advancing Indexes: SPX (+0.28%), DJI (+0.11%), RUT (-0.82%), VIX (-4.29%) Sector List: Materials (XLB +1.01%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.66%) at the top. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.04%) and Health (XLV -0.29%) at the bottom. Expectation: Sideways -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Market Overview A rally back into large-cap stocks drove the major indexes higher on Wednesday, while small-caps fell back. Consumer Price Index data for December was higher than forecast, but investors remained confident that the Fed would remain vigilant in controlling inflation in 2022. The Nasdaq rose +0.23% for the day. Volume was lower than the previous day. The red body covers 35% of the candle, sitting in the middle of equal-length upper and lower wicks. The second day of higher highs and higher lows is the start of an uptrend. However, there were more declining than advancing stocks, and volume remained low. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose +0.28% for the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) climbed by +0.11%. Small-caps in the Russell 2000 (RUT) did not participate in the rally, declining -0.82% today. The VIX Volatility Index fell -4.29%. Ten out of the eleven S&P 500 sectors rose today. Materials (XLB +1.01%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.66%) were the top sectors. Health (XLV -0.29%) was the only sector to decline. The Core Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in December compared to the forecast of 0.5%. Year-over-year growth was 5.5% compared to an expected 5.4%. Crude Oil Inventories showed higher demand than expected. The 10-year Note Auction didn't move yields much. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply, declining -0.64% today. The US 30y and 2y Treasury Yields rose while the 10y yield declined slightly. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices rose while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices fell. Timber, Copper, and Aluminum Futures increased significantly for a second day. The put/call ratio increased to 0.617. The CNN Fear & Greed index moved into the Greed range. Apple (AAPL) continued to rally with a +0.26% gain today after closing above its 21d EMA yesterday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) also had gains but have some work before repairing their charts. Amazon (AMZN) declined -0.09% today. Alibaba (BABA) was the top mega-cap for the day, gaining +3.95%. It was followed closely by Tesla (TSLA), which ended the day with a +3.93% advance. Ely Lilly was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -2.44% today. The Daily Update Growth List had mixed results. NIO (NIO) was at the top of the list with a +5.53% gain. Peloton (PTON) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.66% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Looking ahead Produce Price Index data will be available tomorrow morning. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims before the market opens. Earnings reports will include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Delta Air Lines (DAL). -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Trends, Support, and Resistance The index rallied in the morning but then faded the rest of the day, closing below the 15,200 support/resistance area. If the one-day trend line continues into tomorrow, it will meet with the five-day trend line for a -0.43% decline. The trend line from the 12/28 high points to a -2.74% decline. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Two days of higher highs and higher lows is good. However, the index needs to make it back to 15,900 to claim a new trend and attempt a new all-time high. The lowering volume and advance/decline line below 1.0 signals weakness even as the index rallies this week. We need to see the index break back above the 21d EMA and head toward 15,900 on higher volume with broad support. Other key indicators to watch for are the percentage of stocks above their 50d and 200d averages. Both of these indicators remain below 0.5 at the moment. For tomorrow, the expectation is Sideways as we wait for the index to decide on a direction. Stay healthy and trade safe! by drewby43216
Weekly Watchlist - January 11, 2022Review: $IXIC #NQ_F $QQQ #ES_F $SPY #YM_F $DIA #RTY_F $IWM Names I'm watching: $PFE $TSLA #GC_F $GLD $SPOT $LCID Long11:27by BalarezoCapital0