SOL: second move unfolding?A price action above 13700 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 13700.
The target price is set at 15100.
The stop-loss price is set at 12700.
Remains a risky trade.
SAO trade ideas
$JSESOL - Sasol: 13226 Gives Way, What Now?See link below for previous analysis.
Sasol did not take long to confirm that the down move was not complete.
The bounce from 13226 to 17380 is for wave (iv); the current sell-off is for wave (v) of .
The earliest indication that wave (v) is done will be a break above 17380.
It's a bit late to be bearish and at this mature stage of the trend, I am more interested in buying opportunities.
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol, a prominent international chemicals and energy company based in South Africa, has its origins in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era. The company is significantly influenced by fluctuations in the oil market, with about 50% of its profits directly linked to oil prices. Sasol's major growth initiatives include its 50% stake in the ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, USA, known as the "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its expanding gas operations in Mozambique, where it has been granted licenses to explore an extensive area of about three thousand square kilometers.
Sasol is also noted for its substantial environmental footprint, being the largest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and one of the top 100 fossil-fuel companies contributing to global emissions. This position places Sasol under continual international pressure to effectively manage and reduce its carbon emissions.
The impact of COVID-19 initially led to a significant recovery in Sasol's share price, driven by rising oil prices. However, this recovery has been undermined by recent declines in commodity prices, particularly oil, which have adversely affected the company's financial performance. For the six months ending on 31st December 2023, Sasol reported a decrease in revenue from R149.8 billion to R136.3 billion, primarily due to lower chemical prices and weaker oil prices. The company experienced a 34% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and a 2% decrease in net asset value (NAV).
Sasol's operations continue to be impacted by the volatile macroeconomic environment, characterized by fluctuating petrochemical prices and unstable product demand. Additional challenges include inflationary pressures and the underperformance of state-owned enterprises critical to Sasol's supply chain. Despite these challenges, Sasol has made some operational improvements in South Africa and has recently been successful in an appeal against environmental regulatory decisions that threatened its Secunda plant operations.
The company has also begun to diversify its energy sources, securing 550 megawatts of renewable energy, which aligns with its goals to reduce carbon emissions. However, production issues, particularly at the Secunda plant, led to a 9% drop in production in the quarter ending March 2024, prompting Sasol to revise its full-year production guidance for 2024 to between 6.9 and 7.1 million tons.
These developments have resulted in a sharp decline in Sasol's share price, which continues to trade well below its long-term downward trendline, reflecting the stock's high volatility and the broader uncertainties in the global commodity markets.
For investors, Sasol presents a complex case. While the company holds significant potential due to its strategic initiatives in the energy sector and its efforts to transition towards more sustainable operations, it remains highly susceptible to external economic and environmental factors. Potential investors should carefully consider the inherent risks associated with Sasol's dependency on global commodity prices and its ongoing challenges in operational and environmental compliance before making investment decisions.
SOL.JSE Sasol Trend Cloud & Fibonacci Study.Sasol has shown a decent recovery from the last selloff.
Also winning the recent Emissions court case seems to have Boosted the Stock Price.
The Chart is self Explanatory.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Unfortunately the Trend Cloud Indicator is not Free. Should you wish to Purchase this, message me and I will put you in contact with the Author.
Regards Graham.
PV=FV/(1+r)^t Present Value = Future Value / (1 + R Rate of Return ) ^ Time.
Our opinion on the current state of SOLSasol, a behemoth in the international chemicals and energy sector, traces its origins to the oil-from-coal technology developed during South Africa's apartheid era. With approximately 50% of its profits tied directly to oil prices, Sasol's performance is closely linked to the volatile energy market. The company has strategically positioned itself for growth through two primary initiatives: its 50% investment in the ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, known as the "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and the expansion of its gas projects in Mozambique. The awarding of two new licenses for gas exploration in an onshore area of about three thousand square kilometers in Mozambique highlights its potential to significantly boost its existing operations in the Rovuma province.
However, Sasol faces significant environmental scrutiny. It is the largest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and is listed among the top 100 fossil-fuel companies globally contributing to over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions. This has placed Sasol under considerable international pressure to effectively manage its carbon footprint.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to a dramatic recovery in Sasol's share price, but the resurgence was short-lived due to declining commodity prices, particularly oil. For the six months ending on 31st December 2023, Sasol reported a decrease in revenue to R136.3bn from R149.8bn in the previous period, attributing the downturn to lower chemical prices and weak oil prices. The company's headline earnings per share (HEPS) and net asset value (NAV) also saw declines of 34% and 2%, respectively.
Sasol's first half of 2024 continued to be marred by a challenging macroeconomic environment, characterized by weaker oil and petrochemical prices, fluctuating product demand, and rising inflation. Operational improvements in South Africa were overshadowed by the persistent underperformance of state-owned enterprises involved in Sasol's value chain, compounded by a weaker global growth outlook, adversely affecting business performance.
On a positive note, on 7th April 2024, Sasol announced that the Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, had upheld its appeal against a decision by the national air quality officer, a ruling that could have jeopardized the operation of its Secunda oil-from-coal plant. This decision comes as a relief for Sasol's operations, albeit temporarily alleviating some regulatory pressures.
Sasol's stock initially benefited from a spike in Brent oil prices to around $127 per barrel, although prices have since receded to about $90, reflecting the inherent volatility and risk associated with commodity shares. In its pursuit of environmental stewardship, Sasol has made a notable stride by securing 550mw of renewable energy, marking progress toward achieving its carbon emission reduction goals. This move signifies Sasol's commitment to transitioning towards more sustainable energy sources amidst the evolving energy landscape and regulatory pressures.
Sasol showing upside to come with two patterns target R228.61There are two potential rising formations to come for Sasol.
Either Rev Cup and Handle or Inv Head and shoulders
We do need the confirmation though for upside to continue to come.
Moving averages yield a Medium Probability setup with
Price>20
Price<200
Oil is also confiriming a short to medium term rally which will help push up the price
Target R228.61
$JSESOL - Sasol: Bear Trend Still Intact, How Much Lower?See link below for previous analysis.
Sasol has continued its strong selloff, going well below the support zone of my previous analysis.
Price action is giving better Elliott Wave context.
I am looking at the bear market from 43860 as a zigzag with the bounce from 13226 for wave (iv) of .
The zigzag is well contained in a falling channel and a clear break out off this channel will give conviction that the bear is over.
I will maintain a bearish stance until we get five waves down for wave and/or a break out off the channel.
Sasol Ready to Reverse TrendWe have previously detailed the short position on Sasol (see linked idea), now we analyze the bullish case, Sasol price has diverged from Brent, brent is seeking a daily cycle high while Sasol is seeking a cycle low. Here we see a Hammer candle forming at the point of the 0.50 retracement of downtrend. This area is also a support level set by price as it moved out of COVID low while RSI is showing a double bottom. Indications are that price will move upwards, it is in pursuit of a yearly low. The brent chart shows price bouncing on 200 week moving average support that forms a falling wedge with the resistance. If this move plays out Sasol bulls will be happy to accumulate at current level, the implication for inflation due to sharp rising oil will be something to watch.
* Risk accepting investors can buy based on reversal Hammer candle.
* Risk averse investors are best to wait for full confirmation that the cycle has turned when price closes above the blue trendline as well as the 10 week moving average (also blue).
UPDATE: Sasol next target is more morbid to R83.96We've held onto the Sasol short and extended the take profit.
Purely based on the bigger picture on a weekly chart.
There's an even larger Inv Cup and Handle.
Price has broken below the Brim level and entered into a Down regression channel. By the looks of it, the price will tank down to R83,96.
The nature of the trade is HIGH probability as the Price<20 Price<200
Target R83.96
Our opinion on the current state of SOLSasol (SOL) is a massive international chemicals and energy company which has its roots in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era in South Africa. About 50% of the company's profits are directly linked to the oil price. It has two main growth areas - its 50% stake in an ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, America, known as "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its development of gas resources in Mozambique. Sasol was awarded two new licences in Mozambique to explore for gas in an onshore development of approximately three thousand square kilometres. This could significantly add to its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province.
One area of concern for Sasol is that it is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE. It is listed as one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies world-wide that contribute to more than 70% of Greenhouse gases. The company remains under international pressure to deal with its carbon emissions effectively.
After the impact of COVID-19, the share made a dramatic recovery which was been brought to an end by the decline in commodity prices, especially oil. In its results for the six months to 31st December 2023, the company reported revenue of R136,3bn down from the previous period's R149,8bn mainly as a result of lower chemical prices and a weak oil price. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) fell 34% and net asset value (NAV) fell 2%. The company said, "Sasol’s performance for the first six months of 2024 continued to be negatively impacted by the continued volatile macroeconomic environment, with weaker oil and petrochemical prices, unstable product demand and continued inflationary pressure. Despite some operational improvements in South Africa, persistent underperformance of the state-owned enterprises involved in Sasol’s value chain and the weaker global growth outlook continue to impact Sasol’s business performance."
Obviously, the share initially benefited from Brent oil prices which rose to a high of around $127 per barrel but have since fallen back to around $82. Sasol remains a volatile commodity share and hence risky. The company says that it has now sourced 550mw of renewable energy - which takes it closer to its carbon emissions goals.
SOL'Distance Divergence'. Similar to the traditional bullish or bearish divergence used when looking at a MACD, RSI or Stochastic, the 'distance divergence' is where the indicator (price distance vs moving average) develops a lower high or higher low vs the price. At current levels, Sasol (SOL) is printing a lower low however, the distance vs the 75-day EMA (i.e. the 50/100-EMA spread) is developing a higher low high, which may be a precursor to potential upside and an opportunity to take a buy/long position.
Our opinion on the current state of SOLSasol, a global powerhouse in the chemicals and energy sector, traces its origins to the oil-from-coal technology developed during South Africa's apartheid era. Approximately 50% of its profits are directly tied to the oil price, with significant growth ventures including its 50% ownership in the Lake Charles Chemical Project (LCCP) ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, USA, and the development of gas resources in Mozambique. Sasol's expansion in Mozambique is marked by the acquisition of two new licenses for gas exploration, potentially augmenting its gas projects in the Rovuma province.
However, Sasol faces considerable environmental scrutiny as South Africa and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's (JSE) largest producer of greenhouse gases. It is identified among the top 100 fossil-fuel entities globally, contributing to over 70% of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, placing it under international pressure to address its carbon footprint effectively.
For the fiscal year ending 30th June 2023, Sasol reported a turnover increase to R289.7 billion from R272.7 billion the previous year, with headline earnings per share (HEPS) rising by 13% and net asset value (NAV) by 4%. The company noted constraints on profitability due to the high brent crude oil prices, a weaker rand/US dollar exchange rate, challenges in South African mining operations, and reduced margins in American and Eurasian segments amid unfavorable market conditions.
In a six-month production and sales update to 31st December 2023, Sasol reported a 6% increase in mining production and a 10% rise in gas production from Mozambique. Fuel production saw an 8% uplift. However, the chemicals business experienced declines in sales revenue across various regions, with South Africa down 18%, America 19%, and Eurasia 26%, attributed to volatile economic conditions, weaker oil and petrochemical prices, unstable product demand, and ongoing inflationary pressures.
A trading statement for the six months to 31st December 2023 projected a significant drop in HEPS, estimated between 28% and 42% lower than the previous period, primarily due to the decline in oil and chemical prices. Despite a strong recovery post-COVID-19, Sasol's share performance has been dampened by these recent results. Although the share initially benefited from a spike in Brent oil prices, which reached around $127 per barrel, prices have since receded to below $82.
Sasol remains a high-risk, volatile commodity share, intricately linked to global oil prices and market dynamics. The company's commitment to reducing its carbon footprint is evidenced by securing 550MW of renewable energy, aligning with its goals to lower carbon emissions.
SASOL LIMITEDI have written a top-down analysis within the video therefore if anyone does not understand some thing, they are welcome to ask me.
Our opinion on the current state of SOLSasol (SOL) is a massive international chemicals and energy company which has its roots in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era in South Africa. About 50% of the company's profits are directly linked to the oil price. It has two main growth areas - its 50% stake in an ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, America, known as "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its development of gas resources in Mozambique. Sasol was awarded two new licences in Mozambique to explore for gas in an onshore development of approximately three thousand square kilometres. This could significantly add to its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province. One area of concern for Sasol is that it is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE. It is listed as one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies world-wide that contribute to more than 70% of Greenhouse gases. The company remains under international pressure to deal with its carbon emissions effectively. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023 the company reported turnover of R289,7bn compared to R272,7bn in the previous year. Headline earnings per share (HEPS) was up 13% and the company's net asset value (NAV) increased by 4%. The company said, "Despite benefitting from the elevated brent crude oil price and a weaker rand/US$ exchange rate, our profitability for the year was constrained. Challenges in our South African mining operations and reduced margins in our American and Eurasian segments, driven by unfavourable market conditions, impacted our financial results". In a production and sales update on the six months to 31st December 2023 the company reported mining production up 6% and gas production (from Mocambique) up 10%. SO fuel production was up 8%. Sales revenue from the chemicals business was 18% lower in South Africa and 19% lower in America while sales from Eurasia dropped by 26%. The company said, "The H1 FY24 performance continued to be impacted by a volatile macro-economic environment, with weaker oil and petrochemical prices, unstable product demand and continued inflationary pressure. Persistent underperformance of state-owned enterprises in South Africa remains a concern, as does the outlook for weaker global growth. Pricing pressure continues to impact sales volumes, margins and resultant profitability". Since the impact of COVID-19, the share was making a dramatic recovery which has been brought to an end by the latest results. Obviously, the share initially benefited from Brent oil prices which rose to a high of around $127 per barrel but then fell back to below $82. Oil prices are now rising again. Sasol remains a volatile commodity share and hence risky. The company says that it has now sourced 550mw of renewable energy - which takes it closer to its carbon emissions goals. On 12th July 2023 the company announced that its application to be exempt from the sulphur dioxide emissions rules at its Secunda plant had been rejected. This could have a major impact on the company's long-term viability. On 13th November 2023 the company announced that its chairperson, Sipho Nkosi, resigned with effect from 10th November 2023.
Sasol Vulnerable to BearsSasol is likely leaving behind a cycle high as it got a strong rejection at the 200DMA, the blue line defines a cycle, we expect price to close below this line moving into a daily cycle low. Price is in a rising wedge channel (bearish). Bulls would want to avoid price going lower than R225.22. It is noteworthy that enroute to a daily cycle low, price must go lower than the 200 week moving average, getting back above that would be hard especially considering that it we are in week 21, a time window for a top of the weekly cycle.
UPDATE: Sasol hit the target at R184.50 _WAIT!Rising Flag formed on Sasol, the price broke below.
And it was all downside from there.
We saw the price tank way past our target of R184.52 and then some.
Now I'm getting a lot of requests to what we should do.
Well personally I'm just waiting.
We need to be patient to wait for another consolidation and breakout. Just as every other market.
Trading needs patience. And a lot of it to spot the HIGH probability trades.
That helps get the excitement and emotions removed from the analyses...
The stock market doesn't have emotions, neither should we.
Calculated risks and rewards. It's all an auction of probabilities.
SOL Wednesday 13 December 2023 06h30 Sasol Ltd (SOL, 17124c). Has reached an inflection point i.e. a print at the lower boundary of it's downward trending parallel channel. Current phase = high bearish momentum/approaching oversold. No sign of price stability as yet but remains on the watchlist for a buy/long entry/re-entry.
Sasol in Race Against Time CycleSasol is in week 19 of a weekly cycle, it has wasted precious time in a ranging price action. Here we see price is facing resistance of the 30 week moving average while supported by the 200 week moving average. Price is caught in a triangle that can break either way, however because of time we can be expecting the cycle to be looking for a top.
Curiously the current price action & pattern seems to resemble that before the COVID crash where the cycle topped in week 18. On the daily timeframe price should be moving higher into a cycle high so we have higher confidence the triangle will break to the upside potentially trapping shorts before buyers vanish. We will be watching this one closely.
TAKE PROFIT REACHED: Sasol Price hit the R184.52 level-now what?Rising Flag formed on Sasol, the price broke below and beautifully it went down on a strong trajectory and declination. The price remained below the 200MA confirming the bear market for the company.
The price came down in a strong fashion takeing it to the first target of R184.52.
The oil price also coincided with the Sasol price having the downtrend dominate taking investors and trader out and shifting to shorts and sells.
The previous trend was down, and it was clear that the downside that came here was a DIstribution phase of the market environment...
SO where to from here?
Well, Down!
There is no indication of upside or slowing down. And when there is I'll let you know.
#JSESOL #SASOL Losing Another BattleIn follow up on my first post of 25 August 2023, we see that after four serious attempts to overcome the neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern, it seems #Sasol has given up that fight and also went on to slip below the lower line of the slightly upward sloping channel. The implied target of the H & S pattern is way down lower.
UPDATE: Sasol on track and tanking to R184.52Rising Flag formed on Sasol after the continuous downtrend.
We see price remains below 200MA which makes a nice risk and reward trade for the short.
Target remains at R184.52
Sasol - Stop Loss triggeredIn a previous post, it was highlighted that Sasol was approaching a buy zone, with a stop loss below 220. Unfortunately, the trade went against us and stop loss has been triggered. There is some minor support at around 212 now, with next major level around 185. Staying away from this stock in the short term as it has been trading poorly last few sessions. Will re-visit if 220 is reclaimed convincingly.
SASOL - Horizontal support Price has found good support at the major R220 level and broken out of the short-term downtrend.
Pullbacks into R235-R226 will give opportunity to accumulate for a move upwards to target the 200dma initially and then top of range. (Potential for a breakout there as it's been tested 3 times now.)
