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Cocoa Futures ( CC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Cocoa Futures ( CC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 2506 Pivot: 2422 Support: 2280 Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias. To add confluence to this, price is crossing the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to head towards the Pivot line at 2422, where the 50% Fibonacci line and 61.8% Fibonacci projection line are located. Alternative scenario: Price head back up towards the 1st resistance at 2506 where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 100% Fibonacci projection line are located. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by Genesiv
Short term analisis for cocoa #ccthe current pattern is considered a bearish pattern, volume becomes a key indicator. If volume breaks to the sell side, then there is a sell-off. I doubt such a move on a commodity, would not be surprised if it was a stock. This morning Reuters published how the energy crisis is hurting heavy industries such as BASF and other german companies, this no doubt is a bad sign. The war still rages on and shows more dangerous levels of engagement such as going nuclear. For what seems to be most unbelievable, iodine pills are running out in Europe and in the US. Cocoa depends on the sale of chocolate, and in this context, the grinding of cocoa in the EU and US has been lower reflecting lower consumption of chocolate. I have friends in Europe literally buying wood for the coming winter, this is to show that even in the midst of inflation, and higher prices, people are giving priority to stocking up on other things such as wood logs (energy crisis). Not an easy mood at the moment for these northern countries that are the major chocolate consumers. On the chart, we can now clearly see a bearish triangle forming since February 2022 and holding thin support above 2300 as it has already tested 2250 (STS2). Volume becomes crucial and these last weeks there's been more sell volume than buying volume. What are the odds that consumption goes chocolate crazy in the next coming weeks? Little. On the other hand, major commodity analysts are optimistic about cocoa saying smaller crops from Africa could positively impact price, or that US consumption is not as bad as thought. Bank analysts have a duty to sell and maybe they are being overly optimistic. The one support for optimism is speculators: in this arm of the trading range, it is attractive to go long as the downside can be seen as limited. I still think there can be more downside until we see better levels. El grafico actual se considera un patrón bajista, el volumen se convierte en un indicador clave. Si el volumen se rompe hacia la baja, entonces hay una venta masiva. Dudo que tal movimiento en una materia prima, no me sorprendería si fuera una acción bursatil. Esta mañana Reuters publicaba como la crisis energética está afectando a industrias pesadas como BASF y otras empresas alemanas, esto sin duda es una mala señal. La guerra aún continúa y muestra niveles de compromiso más peligrosos, como volverse nuclear. Por lo que parece más increíble, las pastillas de yodo se están acabando en Europa y en los Estados Unidos. El cacao depende de la venta de chocolate, y en este contexto, la molienda de cacao en la UE y EE.UU. ha sido menor reflejando un menor consumo de chocolate. Tengo amigos en Europa que literalmente compran madera para el invierno, esto es para mostrar que incluso en medio de la inflación y precios más altos, la gente está dando prioridad a abastecerse de otras cosas, como troncos de madera (crisis energética). No es un estado de ánimo fácil en este momento para estos países del norte que son los principales consumidores de chocolate. En el gráfico, ahora podemos ver claramente un triángulo bajista formándose desde febrero de 2022 y manteniendo un soporte delgado por encima de 2300, ya que ya ha probado 2250 (STS2). El volumen se vuelve crucial y estas últimas semanas ha habido más volumen de ventas que volumen de compras. ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades de que el consumo de chocolate se vuelva loco en las próximas semanas? Poco. Por otro lado, los principales analistas de materias primas son optimistas sobre el cacao y dicen que las cosechas más pequeñas de África podrían tener un impacto positivo en el precio, o que el consumo de EE. UU. no es tan malo como se pensaba. Los analistas financieros tienen el deber de vender y quizás estén siendo demasiado optimistas. El único apoyo para el optimismo son los especuladores: en este brazo del rango, es atractivo ir 'en largo' ya que la riesgo puede verse como limitada. Sigo pensando que puede haber más baja hasta que veamos mejores niveles.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ejencalada
Cocoa Cacao #CC1!#Cocoa can’t seem to take a clear heading, the august attempt failed. USD keeps consolidating (@109) harming commodities such as cocoa. On a technical view: cc tried for a run above 2400 on the 22nd of August, but this push was cut short by negative world news from higher inflation, more worries from China, Europe, and mostly the energy crisis that will seem to obliterate the european market if leaders don’t find a solution to their problems. The EU is facing an increase of up 500% over their utility bill and that will convert many businesses to bankruptcy. Chocolate will most probably be less consumed in this third and fourth quarter as Europe digs its way out of the energy crisis. On the positive note, CC managed to hold above 2300, on its 12 months support. If it is tested again then I fear the next support is 2150. At 2150 it enters what I call the green zone where it becomes attractive to get back in. Nevertheless CC is still very far from its 50 day MA, 140 points on the weekly graph. There are some signs of improvements on the MACD indicator holding a positive trend since 22/08. On the longer term graph, it is still far from showing a change from a downtrend. As we approach the end of year, which usually denotes higher consumption for chocolates, I am hoping to see a reversal of trend by seasonality effect. Macro events will definitely take over any micro trends possibilities. **** Cacao parece no tomar rumbo, el intento de inicios de agosto fracasó. USD sigue consolidándose (@ 109) perjudicando materias primas como el cacao. Desde un punto de vista técnico: #CC intentó romper por encima de 2400 el 22 de agosto, pero este impulso se vio interrumpido por noticias mundiales negativas de mayor inflación, más preocupaciones desde China, Europa y, sobre todo, la crisis energética q asombra europa si los líderes no encuentran solución a sus problemas. La UE se enfrenta a un aumento de hasta 500 % en su factura de electricidad y eso llevará muchas empresas a la quiebra. Lo más probable es que el chocolate se consuma menos en este tercer y cuarto trimestre a medida que Europa se abre camino para salir de la crisis energética. En la nota positiva, CC logró mantenerse por encima de 2300, el soporte de los últimos 12 meses. Si prueba nuevamente, temo que el próximo soporte es 2150. En 2150 ingresa a lo que llamo la zona verde donde se vuelve atractivo ingresar para especuladores. Sin embargo, CC aún está muy lejos de su Media Móvil de 50 días, 140 puntos del gráfico semanal. Hay algunas señales de mejora en el indicador MACD que mantiene una tendencia positiva desde el 22/08. En el gráfico a más largo plazo, todavía está lejos de mostrar un cambio de la tendencia bajista. A medida que nos acercamos al final del año, que generalmente denota mayor consumo de chocolates y por ende una mejoría en el precio, esperare ver una reversión de la tendencia por el efecto de la estacionalidad. Los Macro eventos definitivamente tendrán mayor peso a las posibilidades de las micro tendencias.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada
Cocoa market repeatedly bottoms in JulyThe picture below highlights major swing bottoms that all occured in July. Years 2020 and 2021 clearly offered a phenomenal buying opportunity for long positions. Further back, in 2019, a major swing bottom has been locked in in August. In 2018, we got minor swing bottom in August as well, but the price came slightly below the level in October. That year, the market was greatly disrupted by a major bull run from January 2018 that continued throughout the first half of the year. Anyways, halfway through July, we were given a bottom that is holding to this day. It would be the third rally starting at this price level, but something is different - the price is consolidating instead of rallying. I interpret this consolidation as a way to get in at slightly lower price when the stop-loss level has already been determined. I don't think the price could be manipulated only to get Long speculaters out of the position - not this much. Another possibility is that other agricultural commodities have overshadowed Cocoa, but I think the increasing prices will make Cocoa markets soar just as much as Wheat. It is mostly grown in countries that will be last to afford now expensive fertilizers.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by OrcChieftain
Cocoa Breakout Off Inflation SlowdownThe cocoa market, along with many of the softs, is gaining some steam as inflation levels seem to be turning around. The September contract broke its downtrend going back to April of this year and pushed through the 50-day moving average. As inflation looks to be cooling, Cocoa could look to extend gains and test some resistance near the 2464 level, where there will likely be some congestion, and the 50-day moving average which was previous resistance will now act as a strong support level.
ICEUS:CCU2022
by Ryan_Gorman
Short term Cocao Analisis On the daily graph, #CC is attempting a break-out from its mid-February downhill from 2800 down to 2250. It has tried monthly to break through that resistance (RED) and failed, it is now on 9th of august attempting yet again. However, this time it looks more supportive as its MACD has turned positive since mid-July and better buy volumes also. Its short term moving average is also trying to turn positive. It is in process. On a longer-term chart, weekly, and which will be showing, the black arrow is attempting to reverse trend. It is so far a weak attempt, as averages are still far from giving any confirmation, and volumes are still largely negative. Nevertheless, higher lows can be a positive indication of a higher price if this tendency maintains itself. I would call this at the crossroad. En el gráfico diario, cacao está intentando romper de su descenso de mediados de febrero desde 2800 a 2250. Ha intentado romper mensualmente esa resistencia (ROJA) y ha fallado, ahora el 9 de agosto lo intenta una vez más. Sin embargo, esta vez parece mejor posicionado ya que su MACD se ha vuelto positivo desde mediados de julio y también muestra volúmenes de compra. Su promedio móvil a corto plazo también está tratando de volverse positivo. A largo plazo, periodo semanal, como se ve en el gráfico, la flecha negra indica que intenta revertir la tendencia. Hasta ahora, parece un intento débil, ya que los promedios aún están lejos de dar una confirmación y los volúmenes siguen siendo en gran medida negativos. Sin embargo, bajos más altos suele ser una indicación positiva de un precio más alto si esto se mantiene. Yo lo llamaría: la encrucijada.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada