The idea is very simple: majority stocks in a 100 basket should trade above their 200 day average price to carry a strong trend. As a conservative investor if 65% of them dips below their 200MA you should be sidelined, until the majority gains strength again. If you are looking to take moderate risk you can use the 50 line, additionally you may switch to weekly...
The sell off in oil continues to drag the market down . The S1TH is at 68 % , but 2/3 supportive indicators are negative. As per the rules of this system, long positions should be closed.
Chances are will see oil at or below $50 this week. I t will be very interesting how investors react to this. Also keep an eye on treasuries and the mighty USD.
The S1TH is now at 74.25 % , however all three supportive indicators are still negative. As per the rules , at least 2 out 3 supportive indicators need to be positive before opening new positions, this system is still out of the market.
The S1TH shoot back above 65 % this week. However , all three supportive indicators are still negative. Despite the rally , no new position should be open , as per the rules for this system.
Last week the S1TH was still above 65 % line last week, however due to high volatility , and negative reading from two supportive indicators, i advised that this market wasn't "tradeable" ( not a word) or new position shouldn't be opened.
fast forward to yesterday, the S1TH is well below 65 % ( 51.48),volatility so far for the month is 22.5 %. at this point , if...
the S1TH dipped below the 65 % line on Wednesday ,before closing above it again at 69.30% . However , two of the supportive indicators are negative. Also the volatility is EXTREMELY high, 19.5 % so far.
When I first published this strategy three years back, I described it as a strategy for conservative investors. so due to the high volatility in the market...
Alibaba is trading, now we can get focus on something else. the S1TH jumped to 86 % from 73 %. All three supportive indicators are positive, so this market remains "tradeable".
The the AK TREND ID indicator for the SPY, remains in the green zone ( see comment section).
The week has been pretty volatile. SPX closed below 2000, and the VIX jumped to 14.27 before closing at 13.31. The S1TH lost 11 pts, going from 84 % to 73 %. Two out of three supportive indicators remains positive, so this market remains "tradeable"
Interesting week ahead, things i will keep my eye on :
- Scottish independence & GBP
- Alibaba IPO & YHOO
The S1TH saw its sharpest drop since March of this year, and currently sitting at 69.30 ( down from 83.16). The exit point for conservative investors is 65, but we are not there yet. Out of the three supportive indicators, only two remains in positive territory.
Very interesting times , is this the beginning of the end of one of the most profitable bull market...
The S1TH index declined more then 10 % this week , going from 93 % to 83.16%. We got strong earning reports from AAPL, FB, but got mix results from MSFT and CAT. The S1TH remains above the 65 % , at 83 % , and only 2 of 3 supportive indicators are positive (RSI is below 50 ) , so this market is still "tradealble"
Despite the volatility and tragic events in Ukraine the S1TH gain 3 pts from last week, 93 % of SP 100 stocks are still trading above their 200 ma, and all supporting indicators remain bullish. Market is still "tradeable"
Economic numbers this week
- Existing Home Sales
- New Home Sales
- Initial claims
Popular Earnings report this week