ISM Manufacturing Index

ISM

:

MAN_PMI

This simple but elegant indicator is nothing but the ISM Manufacturing Index represented with a baseline of 45. Once the ISM line breaches the baseline it indicates a recession is guaranteed if not already under way. This indicator has perfectly predicted the last seven recessions and is currently trending down towards the baseline as we speak. Like, share and...

Industries showing weakness.

ISM PMI VS US10Y

Drop below 50 = economic contraction. What's concerning is market has been making all-time highs while ISM has been going down. I interpret that as a fundamental problem and as a friend once told me, "Fundamentals are king...eventually".

Historically if ISM < 45 , it was 100% of the time that US went into recession. I personally believe FED will continue its rate cut as well as reintroducing QE soon.

Manufacturing index ISM

Manufacturing slows as the S&P rises, not a good sign.

Previous three recessions were preceded by the MAN_PMI index hitting 45.

Manufacturing numbers continue to be horrendous at best, and with recent escalating tariffs between US-China which will only seemingly get worse through time, manufacturing should inevitably decline even further through Q4 2019 and Q1 2020. From number extrapolation based on key data I am targeting a PMI of around 39 late Q2 2020 or possibly Q3 2020. In the near...

Weekly no log with 100EMA, RSI & MACD

historical

PMI vs SPY with 50 & 200 MA

ISM Manufacturing Index...> 55..Short bias..& Growing..predict Inflation..

US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

.

ISM decline in recent months indicate more SPX weakness is ahead

US PMI Purchasing Managers Index

SPX yoy performance follows ISM Source: Raoul Pal youtu.be