The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these...
In May we find out how much damage the Corona virus has caused.
I expect an index around 28 and it will confirm the recession. Now this is a lagging indicator which means that things happen first and then shows how much growth has been effected the month before.
In my opinion, the coming years will be very hard. High unemployment figures, bankruptcies, unrest...
No, not really. Only 3 of 7 divergences signaled recessions in the last 50 years. Besides, some recessions did not have any divergence.
So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis.
Red flag -> Divergence with recession following
Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession
? -> No divergence signal before recession
(This post is in response to some...
It is interesting to note that there is a current clear divergence between the SPX and the ISM Manufacturing Index, that started back in January 2019 when the Fed stopped raising rates. The SPX has shot higher, while the ISM has continued to drop crossing below 50 and therefore indicating a contraction. In the past this drop below 50 has lead to a stock market...
SPX yoy performance vs PMI Manufacturing index
Tried to replicate TeddyVallee's chart w/o z-scores he published on Twitter
Big divergences I could find are marked with flags. I may be missing a few so make your own decisions
Looks like when PMI and SPX diverged, most of the time SPX was correct!
Could it be that stocks are the first to feel the liquidity...
Drop below 50 = economic contraction. What's concerning is market has been making all-time highs while ISM has been going down. I interpret that as a fundamental problem and as a friend once told me, "Fundamentals are king...eventually".
Historically if ISM < 45 , it was 100% of the time that US went into recession.
I personally believe FED will continue its rate cut as well as reintroducing QE soon.
Manufacturing numbers continue to be horrendous at best, and with recent escalating tariffs between US-China which will only seemingly get worse through time, manufacturing should inevitably decline even further through Q4 2019 and Q1 2020.
From number extrapolation based on key data I am targeting a PMI of around 39 late Q2 2020 or possibly Q3 2020. In the near...
This simple but elegant indicator is nothing but the ISM Manufacturing Index represented with a baseline of 45. Once the ISM line breaches the baseline it indicates a recession is guaranteed if not already under way.
This indicator has perfectly predicted the last seven recessions and is currently trending down towards the baseline as we speak. Like, share and...
