analysis on usdjythis is the direction from the analysis recieved during a clear directionLongby vesimsezane1
USD/JPY stabilizes after roller-coaster MondayThe Japanese yen is lower on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.88, up 0.34%. It has been a relatively quiet day for the yen after massive movement over the past two days. On Friday dollar-yen jumped 1.7% and broke above 158, but the real drama unfolded on Monday, when the yen went on a wild ride that saw it swing more than 550 basis points. The yen fell as low as 160.23 but then recovered and closed at 156.30, gaining 1.25% on the day. What caused the huge spike? Japanese markets were closed on Monday and trading algorithms in thin liquidity could have accounted for the swing. Still, in the current environment of the yen losing ground fast, intervention by Tokyo was also suspected. Adding to the intrigue was the refusal of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to comment whether it had intervened in the market. We won’t know for sure if the MoF did step in until next month, when details of any intervention will be released. The MoF intervened in September and October 2022 in the order to prop up the yen, but the moves didn’t have a long-lasting effect and it’s questionable whether another intervention would be any different. Still, Tokyo doesn’t want to stand idly by as a plunging yen complicates its goal to achieve sustainable inflation. The US/Japan rate differential remains wide and with the Fed signaling that it will delay rate hikes, the yen is unlikely to show much improvement without intervention. Investors will be on the alert for an intervention if the yen continues to lose ground. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 156.62 and 156.80. Above, there is resistance at 157.30 There is support at 156.30 and 156.12by OANDA0
USDJPY - BULLISH Breakout & Continuation TradeOn a fundamentally driven day, price has just broken out of a key technical level. Here are my thoughts on the setup & how you can take advantage of it from both a technical and fundamental perspective. If you have any questions or comments please leave them below. Akil Long04:40by Akil_Stokes220
USDJPY major dump ahead 1200pips fall coming soon 145.00We are looking for a week or two weeks fall here and so our target would be first 700pips fall and 157.00 and then more 500pips fall which means totally 1200pips fall is expected here and also major resistances and targets mentioned on the chart too. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <Shortby MMBTtrader1116
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers. So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons: • The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative. • Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves. • Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term. • Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention. However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions. What's Next for the Yen? The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including: • The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease. • Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation. • Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market. The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals. Longby bryandowningqln0
USDJPY PRICE MAY FALL!!!!After the BoJ intervened yesterday (Monday, 29/04/2024) price fell over 3%. Right now, price trades at 157.518 yen per dollar. We may experience a fall from the current market price upto 155.147 (H1 pullback support) A sell opportunity is envisaged. Shortby Cartela8810
USDJPY LONGUSDJPY long term bias is still bullish. As USD is strengthening with JPY is weakening. Price pullback to previous support level and reject from the support. It had formed a ascending triangle. The ascending triangle was broken through the resistance level. Set a long trade. targeting the weekly swing high. Longby royschen072
USDJPY: Bullish Pattern Again?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵 Bulls look strong again on USDJPY. After a presumable intervention, the market dropped by 500 pips on Monday. The price formed a bullish triangle on a 4H time frame then. At the moment, I see a confirmed violation of its neckline The pair may keep growing at least to 158.35 now. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ Longby VasilyTrader118
UJLike GJ, I am staying very far away. WEEKLY We are currently testing with a hanging man, which is usually a reversal candlestick, so we will keep waiting for it to complete as it can change. DAILY This is the highest price UJ has ever crossed in its history, which indicates the strength of the dollar to the Yen. Which is why we can watch as well what the DXY is doing as this is the index to give us ideas of where the market is going. 4H We have been in an ascending channel, this is only the second touch of the touch of the channel so we cannot assume yet that there will be a drop. If we get an override through pattern confirmation or candlestick confirmation then we could look for shorts. We are in an expanding channel within an ascending channel, so we could actually just be continuing to the upside and we are mid-range so it's not best to do anything. 1H Just stay watching.by Mhangwane11
Technical Analysis of USD/JPY as of April 30, 2024Overview: The USD/JPY pair has been exhibiting a strong bullish trend over recent weeks, as observed in the series of green candlesticks. The most recent data indicates a pullback, with a red candlestick signaling potential short-term reversal or retracement. This analysis will leverage various technical indicators and market data to predict future movements and identify key trading levels. Price Action and Candlestick Analysis: The last recorded price shows USD/JPY at 156.902, with the day's trading range between 156.056 and 157.003. The appearance of a long red candlestick following a significant uptrend suggests potential exhaustion among buyers. This could indicate the beginning of a retracement or at least a consolidation phase. The size and closing position of the candlestick relative to previous ones are critical for suggesting a temporary pullback. Technical Indicators and Their Implications: Moving Averages (MAs): Short-term MAs (10 and 20-day) are positioned below the current price, indicating a bullish setup. However, the exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) on the 50-day timeframe showing signs of leveling might suggest slowing momentum. The 200-day MA support is far below current levels, reinforcing the longer-term bullish trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is near the 70 mark, which traditionally indicates overbought conditions. This aligns with the potential for a pullback or sideways movement in the short term. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains above the signal line but shows signs of converging, which could indicate a weakening in the current bullish momentum. Fibonacci Retracement: Recent price retracement respects the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 156.676, suggesting strong support around this area. A break below this level could see the next support at the 38.2% level (155.750). Pivot Points: Current price action is hovering around the R1 pivot level (153.354), with potential to test higher resistances at R2 (155.406) and R3 (158.840) if upward momentum resumes. Support levels are identified at S1 (147.868) and S2 (144.434), should a deeper retracement occur. Market Sentiment and Performance Metrics: The market sentiment remains predominantly bullish with strong performance over the last 3 months, showing a 6.33% increase. However, investors should be wary of potential shifts, especially given recent price action and technical indicators suggesting a near-term correction. Trade Strategy and Price Prediction: Buying Strategy: Ideal buying opportunities may arise if the price approaches the 155.750 level (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) with confirming bullish signals, such as a bullish reversal candlestick pattern or RSI moving away from the overbought territory. Selling Strategy: Traders might consider taking profits or short positions if the price fails to breach the recent high near 158.00 and shows signs of reversal. A stop-loss can be reasonably set above 158.840 (R3 pivot). Price Target: If the bullish trend resumes post-consolidation, a speculative price target of 160.892 (R3 pivot) is foreseeable in the mid-term. Conversely, should the pullback intensify, a fall to around 155.750 (38.2% Fibonacci level) could occur before finding substantial support. Conclusion: While the USD/JPY exhibits strong bullish momentum, recent signs suggest caution is warranted. Traders should look for confirmation of trend continuation or reversal around key technical levels. Monitoring upcoming economic events and market news will be crucial in steering the future course of this currency pair.by AxiomEx2
USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. We ask for your support through boosters and subscriptions. While the Japanese stock market took a day off, the value of the yen plummeted, causing the dollar-yen exchange rate to surge. However, after the surge, there was another sharp decline, which is speculated to have been influenced by intervention from Japanese authorities. As the details are not official yet, uncertainty persists, but it seems to have been a good opportunity as the range between 160 and 162 is considered an important resistance level by Japanese authorities. - The FOMC meeting will be held from April 30th. - The minutes of the Japanese monetary policy meeting will be released on May 2nd. - US employment figures will be announced on May 3rd. - The Japanese stock market will be closed on May 3rd for Constitution Day. USDJPY surged, forming prices above the upper trendline for a while due to the surge, but then retreated to the 156 line. The current movement seems to be a false breakout, and if the next candle forms below the 159 line, it indicates a downward trend. Therefore, we expect a short-term downward trend, and the current low point is likely around the 154 line. In short, after the candle that broke through the 160 line, if the next candle forms below the 159 line, it indicates a short-term decline to the 154 line. However, there are variables. Due to this week's FOMC meeting, there is a possibility of the dollar strengthening, and Japanese authorities may also intervene more actively. If there are unexpected movements, we will adjust our strategy accordingly.Shortby shawntime_academy6
Dollar yen analysisThe analysis is based on the attractive magnetic force, which in turn attracts the price to it if it meets certain conditions!!! This knowledge is not available to anyone and is something I have reservations about? We will soon see the price response to this eventShortby hishamghalib072
usdjpyThe current selling zone for the USD/JPY pair is at 156.79, indicating a potential downward movement in the currency pair. Traders are eyeing multiple take-profit levels, with targets set at 156.40, 156.00, and 155.50, reflecting varying degrees of profit-taking strategies. These levels suggest that traders are anticipating the pair to decrease in value, with incremental profit-taking opportunities as it moves lower. Additionally, a stop-loss order has been placed at 157.30 to mitigate potential losses in case the market moves against the anticipated direction. This combination of take-profit and stop-loss orders illustrates a disciplined approach to managing risk and maximizing profit potential in forex trading. As traders closely monitor market movements, these predetermined levels serve as key reference points for executing trading strategies effectively.Shortby FOREX_trade_01157
USDJPYThe current opportune zone for buying the USDJPY pair is at 159.23. This indicates a favorable entry point for traders looking to capitalize on potential gains. The strategy suggests setting two take-profit levels: the first at 159.00 and the second at 160.00. These levels represent anticipated price points where traders can secure profits from their positions. Additionally, implementing a stop-loss at 157.50 is advised to mitigate potential losses in case the market moves unfavorably. By adhering to these entry and exit points, traders can effectively manage their risk and maximize their profit potential in the USDJPY market."Shortby FOREX_trade_01Updated 164
Weekly Analysis: USDJPY Bullish on Ascending Triangle BreakoutOn weekly chart, the USDJPY continues soaring after a bullish breakout from a long term ascending triangle formed since 2022. The bullish breakout occurred on 10th of April when the pair decisively pierced above the 152 resistance zone, and the breakout with an upside target of 176 (measured by triangles height) remains valid as the subsequent weeks continued closing higher beyond 152. While BOJ had already exited from its negative interest rates policy, the interest rates differential between USD and JPY remains jarringly wide. The movement of USDJPY is largely dependent of the USD strength, with recent sticky inflation data, the Fed is expected to push back on its interest rates cut, which means that the yield spread in USDJPY is to remain higher for longer, favoring the greenback against the yen. In the short term however, given the sharp and rapid depreciation of the yen, traders should be cautious of a potential FX intervention by the BOJ, which would trigger a whipsaw (suspected to have taken place on 29 April after the sharp spike to 160). In the intermediate term, the fundamentals are aligned for further appreciation of the USDJPY pair. This broad uptrend in the USDJPY offers short-term traders opportunities to capitalize on short-term price swings by aligning their trades with the overall bullish momentum. They can use technical analysis tools to identify entry and exit points within the uptrend, potentially profiting from smaller price movements.Longby phillip_nova113
Anyone have suggestions on a trip to Tokyo?In Tokyo next end of June for a few weeks, anyone got recommendations for places to go and things to see? Betting COVID gone and JPY weaker.Longby fenditendiUpdated 3
Japanese Yen likely reaching a bottom, short term at leastLots of talk about the #Dollar & #Yen as of the last day. US #Dolalr ( TVC:DXY ) has done well for some time. VS We've spoken on Japan a few times over the last year, has been the opposite. Daily shows that this trade is exhausting SHORT TERM! Look at that volume! Likely Japanese govt is intervening!by ROYAL_OAK_INC0
UJ update 4/29 , 160 Target hit!Quick update on UJ, took 90% of my positions on UJ at exactly 160.00 as that was my TP. Currently looking to add another position as I like the 4hr body closures and rejection wicks to the downside, that to me indicates that it wants to take 160.44 level which is full tp level, or may even blow past that to 163. This week is packed full of news, so i might just sit on the sidelines, or use a small entry as im very bullish on the dollar in general.Longby VincentFX951
USDJPY: bullish ascending triangleHello hello Looks like dollar is about to breakout and we can see the ascending triangle and also long term trend line above. Once it breaks 152 and stays above, it confirms the move towards 160. Happy investingLongby MarathonToMoonUpdated 221
The Yen's Wobble: Bank of Japan in a Policy BindThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) finds itself caught in a precarious situation as it grapples with defending the weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). With global inflation on the rise and other central banks tightening monetary policy, the BOJ faces a difficult choice: intervene in the currency market or stick to its ultra-accommodative stance. The Yen's depreciation stems from a divergence in monetary policies between Japan and other major economies. The BOJ has stubbornly maintained an ultra-loose policy, keeping interest rates at a negative 0.1% for nearly eight years. This stands in stark contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which has begun raising rates to combat inflation. This difference in interest rates makes the US Dollar (USD) a more attractive asset for investors, leading to a decline in the Yen's value. A weakening Yen presents a double-edged sword for Japan. On the one hand, it benefits exporters by making their products cheaper in foreign markets. However, on the other hand, a weaker Yen translates to higher import costs, particularly for essential commodities like oil and gas, which are already experiencing price hikes due to global factors. This translates to a squeeze on Japanese consumers' wallets and fuels inflationary pressures domestically. The BOJ has a couple of options to address this dilemma. One option is to intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling US Dollars from its massive war chest of over $1.2 trillion worth of US Treasuries (as of February 2024 data). This intervention would theoretically raise the value of the Yen by increasing demand for it. However, such a move is not without its risks. Selling a significant amount of US Treasuries could cause their yields, or the interest rates investors receive for holding them, to spike. This could have a ripple effect on global financial markets, potentially destabilizing them. Furthermore, Japan's intervention might be seen as futile if the underlying cause, the policy divergence with other central banks, is not addressed. The effectiveness of currency intervention is often debated, with some economists arguing that it is a temporary solution at best. The other option for the BOJ is to raise interest rates. This would bring Japan more in line with other central banks and potentially make the Yen a more attractive asset for investors. However, the BOJ has been reluctant to raise rates for several reasons. One concern is that raising rates could derail Japan's fragile economic recovery. The country has struggled with deflation, or persistently falling prices, for decades, and raising rates could dampen economic activity. Additionally, many Japanese businesses and households have become accustomed to, and even dependent on, the low-interest-rate environment. Raising rates too quickly could lead to financial instability. The BOJ's decision to maintain negative interest rates at its April 26th meeting underscores this cautious approach. This decision, while expected by many analysts, further highlights the difficult balancing act the BOJ faces. The path forward for the BOJ remains uncertain. The bank may eventually be forced to raise interest rates as global inflationary pressures persist. However, the timing and pace of such hikes will be crucial. The BOJ needs to find a way to defend the Yen without jeopardizing the economic recovery or causing undue financial market volatility. This situation serves as a reminder of the complex challenges central banks face in a time of global economic uncertainty. by bryandowningqln1
JPY really weak right now A few weeks back I posted a swing idea of USD/JPY being a bullish for a while. Price reached my target of 1000 pips and appears to be pulling back temporarily. Another opportunity might be around the corner for more longs. Stay tuned by snipdapipz0
Usdjpy dipping here show range read the caption The USD/JPY pair witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround and tumbled over 570 pips from levels beyond the 160.00 mark, or the highest since October 1986 touched earlier this Monday. Although an official announcement has been made so far, the possibility of an intervention by Japanese authorities to support the domestic currency was cited as a key factor behind the sharp downfall. In fact, Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda refrained from making any commentsShortby Mrsam364