Recently foreign investors have started to enter Russian market according to data posted on 28 oct 2020. Hence there is high probability of pullback to S1 level.
However, I see limited ability of RUS bond market to recovery as many things bring uncertainty to the world.
I consider that Russian debt market has reversed, since almost all waves suits to proportional rules and RGBI has just formed entrance wedge that point out to the beginning of bear market. Without any doubts it will effect to Russian RUB that might devalue substantially.
there is great probability that now RGBI is depicting 4-th wave of the biggest order , that lead to sharp devaluation of Russian RUB . So USD/RUB long in short term.
We consider , that there are two possible ways of development current situation . Either RGBI is ready to draw 4 purple wave or it will occur when RGBI will achieve 150.60 approximately. According to gold ratio second variant is more probable however at the moment yellow 1 and yellow 5 wave are equal in absolute term that also might be considered as good ratio of waves.
we think that now russian state debt market is in final stage of its growth. It is obvious fact that it will lead to strengthen of Russian ruble or ruble will be stable relatively.
At the moment, the key factor determining the dynamics of the Russian currency is the inflow and outflow of money in Russian bonds. The current rubble appreciation is associated with a new influx of non-residents in GOV Bonds. Wave analysis of Eliot showed that at the moment we are drawing A to ABC (B is of a higher order), which means that the rubble will...
