Before the war Russian reserves amounted to 630 billion USD, a conservative estimate puts them to this date @ around 500 billion USD. Every day that the war lingers on, costs russias coffers 15 to 20 billion USD. This is not considering the additional sanctions and exclusion from the banking system slapped on Russia this weekend. Following the debacle of the...
As usual, Russian local corp bonds are less sensitive to momentum than sovs (OFZ). On price charts you can see that in spite of correction in OFZ corp index moved less. Investors should be more careful in local corps selection paying more attention to spread values.
Technically. Immediate support on the monthly timeframe is in the 134.85-131.60 zone. The long-term uptrend has been broken. You need to be patient and wait for the exodus of investors from this asset to stop and the cycle of accumulation begins.
Fundamental. By the end of October, annual inflation is expected in the range of 8-8.2%. If prices continue to grow at...
Recently foreign investors have started to enter Russian market according to data posted on 28 oct 2020. Hence there is high probability of pullback to S1 level.
However, I see limited ability of RUS bond market to recovery as many things bring uncertainty to the world.
I consider that Russian debt market has reversed, since almost all waves suits to proportional rules and RGBI has just formed entrance wedge that point out to the beginning of bear market. Without any doubts it will effect to Russian RUB that might devalue substantially.
there is great probability that now RGBI is depicting 4-th wave of the biggest order , that lead to sharp devaluation of Russian RUB . So USD/RUB long in short term.
We consider , that there are two possible ways of development current situation . Either RGBI is ready to draw 4 purple wave or it will occur when RGBI will achieve 150.60 approximately. According to gold ratio second variant is more probable however at the moment yellow 1 and yellow 5 wave are equal in absolute term that also might be considered as good ratio of waves.
