ABNB ShortWeekly head and shoulders. 1.619 retracement matches up with .50 retracement. Center of channel in a down trendShortby PennantTrading1
Airbnb (ABNB): Time to Short!I love Airbnb for vacations but this chart really isn't looking so good... It is the only stock we are currently looking to short. Airbnb has consistently shown lower prices since its inception, despite a recent period of higher highs since hitting a low of $82. We remain confident in the continued downward trend. The movements from point A to B and B to C align well with Fibonacci extension and retracement levels. The retracement for Wave (2) is particularly notable at the 61.8% level. We believe we are currently within Wave (3). We want to time the short entry based on anticipated Elliott wave counts. We anticipate a further decline in the short term, followed by a potential rise in the coming weeks. We plan to place our short position during this anticipated rise in Wave 2. We will continue to monitor the price action closely and provide a detailed update with exact entry and exit points once we are ready to place the short position.Shortby freeguy_by_wmc3
Airbnb | ABNB Airbnb is the leader in Alternative Accommodations and experiences. I believe their community of individual hosts and strong brand differentiates them from travel peers. The emerging trend of long-term stays would boost Airbnb’s profit margins and expand the entire travel accommodation market size Airbnb estimates its current total addressable market to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion in short term stays, $ 210 billion in long term stays, and $ 1.4 trillion in experiences. Coupled with a notably underpenetrated market size, the global travel market is growing at an above GDP rate. Airbnb’s current market penetration represents less than 2% of the share. As such, there is a huge runway for Airbnb’s growth over the next decade. In terms of competition, most Online Travel Agencies (OTA) provide traditional hotel accommodation (Marriott, Hilton, Accor, Wyndham, and InterContinental, for example). These OTAs are not the real competitors for Airbnb. Instead, Booking.com (BKNG) is expanding its traditional hotel business into the alternative accommodation industry. Expedia (EXPE) entered the alternative accommodation market via the acquisition of VRBO in December 2015. However, Airbnb has the first-mover advantage with a very strong brand. I believe Airbnb’s technology and supplies are superior to their peers, and it is hard for Expedia and Booking.com to compete against Airbnb in the alternative accommodations space. One of the main expenses for Online Travel Agencies is sales and marketing. They have to spend billions of dollars on Google, Facebook, and other social media platforms to attract traffic. The table below shows the sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales. Both Booking.com and Expedia spend almost half of their sales on sales and marketing. According to Airbnb’s disclosure, 80% of their website traffic comes from direct and organic search. In contrast, Booking.com and Expedia only have 60% direct traffic. In other words, Airbnb has the highest brand awareness among these travelers. With a high ratio of direct traffic and organic search, Airbnb spends much less than its peers. In Q1 FY23’s earning call, Airbnb indicated their sales and marketing expense as percentage of sales would remain the same in FY23. In late 2019, Airbnb's costs were rising, and growth was slowing. They spent a huge amount of money on performance marketing, which was basically selling their products as a commodity. Their product was looking less different from their competitors. When the COVID occurred, they lost 80% of sales in eight weeks, and they shut down all marketing spending. Interestingly, when the travel market rebounded, Airbnb's business came back to almost the same level as before, with much less marketing expenses. Currently, they spend much less on performance marketing, and most of their expenses are focused on their products/services. They have had 600,000 articles about Airbnb. These efforts have put Airbnb in a much better shape today. 90% of Airbnb's hosts are individuals. Airbnb can capitalize on the personal experience provided by these unique individual hosts, as opposed to a standard hotel service. Customers can find unique properties, differentiated amenities, as well as local insights from these individual hosts. Airbnb is putting in a lot of effort into the experience market. In Q4 FY22's earnings call, Airbnb expressed that they were beginning to ramp up their Airbnb Experience business and expect to launch more products/services over the coming years. In my opinion, Airbnb Experience may not bring notable direct sales to Airbnb, but it would enhance the stickiness and loyalty of Airbnb's customers. Airbnb Experience would make the Airbnb platform unique and boost their sales indirectly. Furthermore, Airbnb Experience could become more relevant with AI technology. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb disclosed that they are building AI into their products. Airbnb is working with OpenAI ChatGPT, and Airbnb will embed ChatGPT into their app. The AI powered product will be launched next year. Leveraging AI technology, Airbnb can make their Airbnb Experience and accommodation recommendations more relevant to any consumer. To put it another way, Airbnb would know your preferences for travel destinations and accommodations before you start searching for anything. Long-term Stay: As disclosed, 20% of Airbnb's gross bookings are long-term stays currently. Long-term stays are the fastest-growing segment in terms of trip length. The pandemic also accelerated some inevitable growth for long-term stays. Long-term stays mean higher margins for both hosts and Airbnb. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb indicated that long-term stays would be one of the biggest growth areas over the next five years. Airbnb made over a dozen upgrades to long-term stays based on affordability, and they also have new discounting tools for hosts on weekly and monthly stays. Airbnb expects more hosts to exclusively list long-term stays with Airbnb. In addition, 62% of Airbnb's guests are under 34 years old, and Airbnb is focusing on the next generation of travelers. These young customers are more likely to use Airbnb as the platform for long-term stays. The key thing to remember is that more long-term stays mean higher margins for Airbnb. Airbnb indicated that, in the current macroeconomic environment, consumers are looking for affordable ways to travel on Airbnb. Airbnb is adding more affordable accommodations to their platform. The average price of Airbnb rooms is only $67 per night. Before the pandemic, 80% of Airbnb's sales were coming from either cross-border or urban accommodations. The cross-border business would contribute more sales to Airbnb than other types of travel. The cross-border traveling could be very weak if high inflation persists. Despite this, the global travel market had been growing fast in the past, and I expect the growth will continue in the future. We are using a two-stage DCF model to estimate Airbnb’s fair value. In the model, we assume 20% of normalized sales growth rate, which we believe is quite conservative. We assume they can expand their operating margin by 30bps annually and will reach 25.5% in FY32.Their free cash flow conversion was quite healthy in the past, and we assume they will deliver 35.8% in FY32. In addition, we use 10% of WACC, and 15% of nonGAAP tax rate in the model. The present value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) over the next 10 years is estimated to be $32 billion, and the present value of terminal value is $88 billion. As such, the total enterprise value is estimated to be $120 billion. Adjusting gross debt and cash balance, the fair value of the stock price is $ 200, according to our estimate. All things considered, the huge underpenetrated market, strong brand awareness, and growing trend of long-term stays, in my opinion, will provide Airbnb with a huge runway for growth over the next decade. Their competitors are way behind them, and Airbnb would be the best player for the alternative accommodation service provider. In my view, the current stock price is significantly undervalued, and we encourage investors to buy during the weakness. at the end I always bet on Brian Chesky Longby moonyptoUpdated 5
Airbnb (ABNB): Bleak Outlook or Potential Turnaround? 🏠Airbnb (ABNB): NASDAQ:ABNB Airbnb's outlook appears quite bleak at a glance. We've experienced a break in the downtrend, and since January 2023, there has been an uptrend. However, we anticipate this might not last long as the complete cycle has not yet concluded. Since the IPO, the price initially surged to $220, then fell to $82. We now expect a rise towards a Y-Wave, or Wave II, hitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels, equating to a range between $167 and $190. Following this, we predict Wave III will drop well below Wave 1's low of $82, potentially reaching around $30. It's important to note this is a multi-year scenario that won't unfold overnight. Still, it's crucial to be aware of the long-term perspective. Should the price exceed the 78.6% mark, or $190, our scenario would be invalidated, indicating that the bottom was indeed found at $82.40. Until such a development, we anticipate a declining trend for Airbnb.Shortby freeguy_by_wmcUpdated 2
AbnbChanel breakdown around 148. Now potentially flipping into reistance. This looks like a rising channel or a bear flag. If bearflag target is 124) Either way my exit plan is around 135 at the .618 fib support. I’m in at anything around 148 and I’ll add up to 149s If we lose 145.60 and hold below that is another confirmation of further downside. Shortby Erictaylor0
7/11/24 - $abnb - LT winner but ST headwinds7/11/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ABNB LT winner but ST headwinds - best in class - generates healthy >4% fcf yield - 30x PE (in theory) expensive - but opex leverage not normalized in this environment - PF # probably closer to mid 20s in a smoothed scenario - size factor is ambiguous. 88 bn enterprise value not "small" (by any stretch) but also not a small cap that i tend to think r good beneficiaries of the current environment (read my take on AMEX:IWM from last night) - even the chart showing higher lows and higher highs since the '22 low in tech stonks - that's good - on it's equal weighted SPXEW pair looks sideways, unconvincing - this matters - if i didn't need to own the stock i'd probably not in the current environment - google trends are good/ not great - stalled bc of environment trends.google.com - i'd want to pick this up once we figure out what's happening w/ the rates picture. if this marches higher i have no problem letting it go - i don't think there's an obvious 10-15% upside here into YE w/o a lot of monitoring - if we get some sort of risk off, this is probably a weak link esp having just dipped below the 200d EMA... last few times it did that we saw a bit more dippity dip. not my bread and butter - but i use TA as a layer to my above thinking. - i like it more in the $120s. near $150 (like today) i'm ambivalent and see many other names that have better than low teens growth, cash generative, better GM's and trading cheaper than 8x. 6x. fine. 25x on current cons. PE. let's go. - sidelines. what do u think? Vby VROCKSTAR1
ABNB BULLISH JULY 10 2024Abnb has got just 1 resistance and thats it and we will rally and I am long in this. This is not a penny stock like SNAP. NOTE: I AM LONG WITH STOCKSLongby THECHAARTIST1
Good opportunity with ABNB swings150/200 ema cloud has provided good support. I feel once it fully close above 9/20 ema cloud, it will take off possibly reaching the zone above.Longby jsingh0092
ABNB TRADE IDEAWhen considering the forecast and the evidence that supports it, it is likely in wave three to a higher degree, which is the bread and butter of swing trading. That said, the safest wave three entry is often the break above wave one of three, but in this case, the 8 and 21 EMA gave a buy signal, weekly volume is ticking up, and the weekly RSI is holding above 40. Therefore, a break above the weekly 8EMA may be the buy signal we are looking for. For any trade, you need a reason to enter, which is listed, a valid stop, which would be the wave 2 of 3 low in this case, and a target, which will be at least the 161.8% extension, based on typical Elliot wave theory and the overall forecast.Longby BlueLineTradingLLC3
PRIMARY FORECAST FOR ABNBWhile there is an alternate count that treats wave two as a flat correction, there is more evidence to support the listed forecast. Based on the high extension of wave one of three, it is likely that wave three will be extended and target the 260 zone. Currently, the weekly volume steadily increasing over the past few weeks supports that this could get moving to the upside soon. We will want to see the RSI hold above about 40 to confirm the count is correct and in fact in wave three on a higher degree.Longby BlueLineTradingLLC1
ABNB - Bullish PointThe green up trend line should continue. This follows a break of the red trend line and the support of the white horizontal. Should go up. 4Hr chart but still bullish. by Bixley111
$ABNB ALMOST READY?WHAT CAN I SAY ABOUT NASDAQ:ABNB ? NASDAQ:ABNB well, there is a lot to like here, lets dive in I'm waiting for a daily close above the 34 ema, $150 area, i want the saty phase ema to be above the 23.60 level in blue, i would also like the ema to turn green above this level but not a big deal for me on this trade. then go long for the gap fill till $155 - $156 areaLongby brandopresents663
ABNB ConsolidatingI have been watching this consolidation below support on ABNB. $150 has been a very strong resistance, which indicates that once it breaks with volume we could see a big move towards the upside. by HouseOfTrades1
AIRBNB Reasons for execution 1)PWL & PML LIQUIDATED 2)+OB 3)0.382 FIBONACCI SUPPORT LEVEL 4)POSITIVE ORDERFLOW 5)1.618 FIB plus Longby roberto_us302
Airbnb Rising Wedge OpportunityAirbnb carries a potential profit of more than 21% unless it closes below $140 per week. Since my usual bottom finder indicator is currently giving a buy signal, I can open a long targeting $176 with a stop at $140. But in the long term a rising wedge pattern is forming. by YavuzAkbay5
$ABNB Momentum Swingstwo good setups back to back enter at consolidation exit at first fall below MALongby risktolerator1
ABNB - - A potential setup for a swing tradeRemain vigilant for daily reversal candles occurring near the support area. In the event of a daily closing breach of the support levels (red lines), there is a possibility of further downward movement, emphasizing the importance of implementing risk management strategies.Longby Financial_Insights2
ABNB gonna pay went long friday, 150s this week 155s next week exp. bottom of the box stop loss. ez play good setup. already a free trade. gonna let the rest do the work. overall target 155Longby Glocktopi3
2024-05-28 ABNB Bottom fishing position with tight stoplossABNB has really good fundamental, stock went down due to weak guidance. However, looks like a bottom fishing position can be place with a tight stop at this point. If stock reverse and goes further down more than 5%, just cut loss, no second guess (not a financial advise). by vincentvu15111
Airbnb: Downhill 🏂Airbnb shares should approach our turquoise Target Zone between $129.45 and $106.12 before placing the low of the magenta wave (2) there. Subsequently, it should turn around and rise above the resistance at $170.05. Should the price exceed this resistance now (33% likely), we will already see it in the magenta-colored wave alt. (3).by MarketIntel0
Airbnb beats analysts' estimatesAirbnb delivered its quarterly results for the first quarter of 2024, surpassing analysts' estimates on the top and bottom lines. The company reported revenue growth of 18% YoY, bringing the figure to $2.1 billion. The net income was $264 million, up 126% YoY, and operating income amounted to $1.9 billion, recording an increase of 18% YoY. Per the investor letter, the company conducted share buybacks worth $750 million in the first quarter of the current year and registered 132.6 million bookings, marking an increase of 9.5% YoY. Net revenue = $2.1 billion (18% YoY) vs. $1.8 billion in 1Q23 Net income = $264 million (126% YoY) vs. $117 million in 1Q23 Operating income = $1.9 billion (18% YoY) vs. $1.6 billion in 1Q23 Earnings per share = $0.41 (127% YoY) vs. $0.18 in 1Q23 Additional information Active listings rose by 15% in the first quarter of 2024. Long-term stays of 28 days or more accounted for 17% of gross nights booked, down about 1% compared to the first quarter of 2023. Gross nights booked in non-urban areas grew by 10% YoY. Forward guidance Airbnb expects its revenue to increase by approximately 10% in the second quarter of 2024, bringing it to $2.68 billion. Further, the company anticipates stable growth in bookings and adjusted EBITDA to be flat to up on a nominal basis but down on an adjusted EBITDA margin basis when compared to the second quarter of 2023. In addition to that, Airbnb expects its full-year 2024 stock-based compensation expense to be approximately 20% higher than in the full year 2023. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade. by Tradersweekly9
ABNB POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE MOMENTUM AHEAD WITH THIS BREAKOUTABNB has undergone a notable shift in its recent trajectory. A significant breakout accompanied by a gap suggests the possibility of a downward momentum, potentially returning towards the lower support levels. Furthermore, the failure of bullish momentum above the resistance confirms a significant sell zone. Anticipating a further decline of approximately 10% to 12% from the $150 region.Shortby traderchamp_3
ABNB Potential Bearish Continuation SetupAfter the first "confirmed " reversal signal of Extreme Reversal Sniper on the H4 Chart Time Frame; we look for bearish breakout confirmation as decribed on the chart. Holding Period : 5- 7 days Major Trend : Bullish Chart Time Frame: H4 Trade Type: Correction Price Target: Targets are the trendlines on the chart. Status : Not confirmed yet. Important Note: Reversal/Correction is not confirmed. You need to wait for the confirmation signal. Shortby chartreader_proUpdated 1