$ADSK long-term (multi-year) top? (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
could go up some more in near term, but looks quite risky long-term (5+ years)
General Thesis
weekly RSI showing bearish divergence
recently had multiple touches on long-term channel resistance (1991)
Growth
Gross margins (90%) at historical highs
Revenue growth (18%) also high relative to own history, maybe 80th percnetile
Value
P/FCF about average in the last 12 months
P/S at historical highs (about 80th percentile)
Fundamentals & Balance Sheet
low debt to asset (<1)
quick ratio mild (.8)
Potential Risks
could continue to hug upper resistance
short term bounce is possible, last time price touched trend line it took 4 years to touch bottom trend line
Historically no bullish divergence before bounce