Coronavirus effect's on credit market and how they perfrom. 10-Year Treasury > Corporate Investment Grade > 3-Year Teasurey > High Yield
Weekly IEF chart. 2/28/20 Risk vs Reward warning Bonds have performed very well and Treasury yields have tanked Could it go higher? Sure.
IEF(D) Shark Channel MA Desc Triangle Break
Treasury yields have been rising over the past two months, with 2-10 treasury yield spread reaching 29 bps on 12/20/2019, highest level since June 2019. The 1 to 3 year Treasury ETF - SHY broke below the June-November 2019 trendline last week, forming a head-and-shoulder top. Based on the project, the treasury bond ETF prices could target 83.95 area, retracing...
I (kind of) called this uptrend in US treasuries back in a post in July 2018 but it stalled at resistance with this decent correction. Is this now a possible route for treasuries to take in the coming weeks? Perhaps coinciding with a decent correction in equities? Before equities embark on another leg up? Questions, questions.......
Bonds are back, bouncing off long term trendline. Time to buy back in.
The map says it all. Price movement is seeking 120. First stop 116 and then a rest before resurging to 118 and beyond.
Despite the market chatter of rate cuts by the Fed at the end of July, it seems that one area of the market that is not paying much attention are US 10-Year Treasuries ($IEF as a proxy). After posting an "Evening Star" pattern on July 3rd, US Treasuries have been selling off since. As can be seen in the attached chart, the RSI has been showing negative divergence...
The US10Y looks to be gaining towards a bullish outlook creating this ETF to continue to increase its pattern. Waiting for breakout!
After peaking in late December 2018, the price ratio between 7-10 year US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) has fallen since then. This is backed up by the fact that the US Treasuries/US Stock ratio fell below its 10 day EMA (Green) and failed to move higher. We believe that this indicates that “Risk-On” sentiment is...
IEF has bounced off of its double top created during the recession. This has created a hard support. Not only that it has bounced off of it before in a similar fashion between 2013 and 2014. Volume is dramatically increasing at this level, the moving averages are flattening out. All of these are bullish signals. * This information is not a recommendation to...
After the formation of a solid "Inverse Head and Shoulders", the price ratio price ratio between US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) took off past the neckline of 0.39 in early December. A Golden Cross between the 50/200 Day EMA further supports the trend. This indicates that money is flowing into US treasuries, as a...
The trade is long $IEF the iShares 7-10 Year Bond ETF (daily vol is only 0.21%) as I expect 10-year rates to fall slightly over the next 2-6 weeks with the reverse head and shoulder pattern in the weekly 10-year notes and traditional late summer/September rise in Treasuries from pension manager as people return to the office which should accelerate sooner than...
Really not sure about this count at all with all the talking heads going on about rising yields and interest rates and the general gloom surrounding bonds but with commercials very long and speculators very short on the COT index you never know in the markets. If I am right I often call the bottom to early so I wouldn't be surprised to see another leg down before...