1D trending up with retracement on zone
Taking the trade on 1H chart as a double bottom, 2nd low is higher than 1st low. We set the SL below the 1st low
I'd be inclined to trade long to play the channel. What I like is the potential behind.
But on the other hand, I'm bit worried about the hidden bearish divergence.
Set tight stop loss if you go long.
NatGas appears to be starting a wave c of an a-b-c move.
This pattern is the favored pattern so long as price remains above 3.72.
The August 12, 2014 move lower was a 3 wave move where red wave 'c' was nearly equal to red wave 'a'. This suggests the whole pattern is likely to be retraced meaning prices visit 4.03.
Additionally, the equal wave pattern appears...
Natural gas is currently on the long term trendline and holding after massive price appreciations, whipshaw, consolidation, and sell off. Nat gass is down around a dollar in the past month, around 22%.
Technicals:
RSI: Super oversold on daily
Open and close below weekly bollinger band, hyper extended.
Fundamentals:
Dollar per unit of energy nat gas still remains...
Zoomed-in (60-minute) observation indicates "Three inside up" at previously (April) bought-up level.
Speculating on short term directional developments is encouraged by the descending line, proved in number of occasions as an active gravitational body.
Idealized scenario would carry impetus through the 4-hour and bolster medium term velocity.
In the event of...
To me it seems that the spot natural gas should provide more valid historic s/d levels than the futures. This chart raises the question, though potentially in an ambiguous manner since both the spot and futures have levels at this area. The level held extremely well, suggesting that overlapping levels may hold a secret mystical power.
It looks like natural gas is forming a broadening top (megaphone) pattern. Price could potentially range from 4.722 to 4.127 in the next two weeks.
If this continues, I anticipate (with Fibonacci levels) that it could likely be 4.423 to 4.316 towards the last week of April 2014.
I want to clarify that I do not have much experience with forex \ cfd etc but I think that the gas has found resistance at 4,540 and that, given the situation of climate improvements should return to lower levels. Take this with caution as I said I am no expert in the field.
Friends,
A very quick note ...
Here is one that turned around quite fast and reinforced a bearish market reversal confirmation. Bearish targets are as follows:
TG-1 = 4.052 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability
and
TG-Lo = 3.481, low probability
More on this chart as price action unravels.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
If...
