Bearish Reversal Confirmation | $NGAS #NaturalGas

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
417 11 0

A very quick note ...

Here is one that turned around quite fast and reinforced a bearish market reversal confirmation. Bearish targets are as follows:

TG-1 = 4.052 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability


TG-Lo = 3.481, low probability

More on this chart as price action unravels.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting

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David Alcindor
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08 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$NGAS hit target @ 4.217; Expect structural rally up to 4.500; Bulls still prevail: via http://www.tradingview.com"


First soft target reached. Expect a potential rally up to structures defined in the chart - I expect that 4.500 would impose the fiercest level of resistance and push bears to lower lows towards the next target levels.


David Alcindor
07 JUL 2014 - Update:

As rally does not occur and price falls further, now floor opens to 4.127 (i.e.: That is BELOW the structure defined in the chart as 4.217 ... So, not a typo).

06 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$NGAS maintains bearish bias; strongest resistance @4.603; targets intact and in force - via http://www.tradingview.com"


Ever since signal released at RED arrow within triangle, price fell. HOWEVER, it failed to reached the first forecast target and instead retreated short of the structure-high level near the 4.850 value.

Since that retreat, price resumed its downward course. In that downwards resumption, a bearish reversal signal confirmation appeared within the predictive/forecasting model.

At this point, bearish targets remains intact and in force.


David Alcindor
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM - From Tiwtter:

"$NGAS NOTE: High-probability interim rally to 4.558 as bears are likely preparing for descent to greater depths towards forecast targets. "

whats your opinon .do think it still could reach these levels
06 MAY 2014 - Update:

First two red marks are based on historical structures. Bottom target is based on predictive analysis/forecasting system.

While the overall pattern favors bears, a recent rally was controlled within the confines of a rising wedge. A 5-point resistance and 3-point support defined the wedge until a recent break below support followed by validation of support-turned resistance.

If this resistance remains in force, this would further validate the downside potential, opening to structures as defined by this additional inserted chart.

David Alcindor
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
16 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

Per Twitter MSG:

"$NGAS fell as forecast towards S/R levels; forecast target @ 3.367 remains in force - via @tradingview #naturalgas"


David Alcindor
Twitter alias: @4xForecaster
Are you still stick to your target?? It will move down even after today's report??
Hello @rajus - At this point, there has NOT been any technical event in price or directional signal change in my system to decide otherwise. So, all is the same: Analysis and forecast remain unchanged for now.

I defined 4.602 as a potential reversal signal in structural analysis, as a potential indicator of forecast failure.


David Alcindor
rajus 4xForecaster
Thanks a lot for your quick response. You mean to say one should wait for 4.602 for short position? Or one can take a short position right now?
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