4xForecaster

Bearish Reversal Confirmation | $NGAS #NaturalGas

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
413 11 0
Friends,

A very quick note ...

Here is one that turned around quite fast and reinforced a bearish market reversal confirmation. Bearish targets are as follows:

TG-1 = 4.052 - 26 MAR 2014, moderate probability

and

TG-Lo = 3.481, low probability


More on this chart as price action unravels.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting


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Disclaimer:
- Remember to remain dubious about every and any thing I say. All comments are subjective perceptions based on unshared, proprietary and common knowledge of fundamental analysis, classic technical analysis , basic and advanced pattern trading, as well as personal research in occult market geometries, predictive analysis and quant-based forecasting, some or none of which is being shared in my trading profiles, so do your due diligence and review the disclaimer below.
- Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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rajus
2 years ago
Are you still stick to your target?? It will move down even after today's report??
Reply
4xForecaster PRO rajus
2 years ago
Hello @rajus - At this point, there has NOT been any technical event in price or directional signal change in my system to decide otherwise. So, all is the same: Analysis and forecast remain unchanged for now.

I defined 4.602 as a potential reversal signal in structural analysis, as a potential indicator of forecast failure.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
rajus 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks a lot for your quick response. You mean to say one should wait for 4.602 for short position? Or one can take a short position right now?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO rajus
2 years ago
Hello @rajus - I do not mean to sound evasive, but please remember that all of my analyses and forecasting are not trading recommendations.

This being said, all I am saying is that the trader should be aware that 4.602 can be used as a physical limitation to roughly estimate a bullish market reversal.

If price climbed up there, it is likely to find resistance, and a subsequent price action might produce a continuation to the downside.

If price broke above that level, I would look at my own device and change my analysis accordingly.

Again, all the analyses are similar to weather forecasting. I'm not telling people to go to work or take a vacation, just saying whether it's going to rain or shine, ... so to speak.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
06 MAY 2014 - Update:

First two red marks are based on historical structures. Bottom target is based on predictive analysis/forecasting system.

snapshot


While the overall pattern favors bears, a recent rally was controlled within the confines of a rising wedge. A 5-point resistance and 3-point support defined the wedge until a recent break below support followed by validation of support-turned resistance.

If this resistance remains in force, this would further validate the downside potential, opening to structures as defined by this additional inserted chart.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
16 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

Per Twitter MSG:

"$NGAS fell as forecast towards S/R levels; forecast target @ 3.367 remains in force -
snapshot
via @tradingview #naturalgas"

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Twitter alias: @4xForecaster
Reply
booze765
2 years ago
whats your opinon .do think it still could reach these levels
Reply
06 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$NGAS maintains bearish bias; strongest resistance @4.603; targets intact and in force -
snapshot
via http://www.tradingview.com"


snapshot



Traders,

Ever since signal released at RED arrow within triangle, price fell. HOWEVER, it failed to reached the first forecast target and instead retreated short of the structure-high level near the 4.850 value.

Since that retreat, price resumed its downward course. In that downwards resumption, a bearish reversal signal confirmation appeared within the predictive/forecasting model.

At this point, bearish targets remains intact and in force.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
ADDENDUM - From Tiwtter:

"$NGAS NOTE: High-probability interim rally to 4.558 as bears are likely preparing for descent to greater depths towards forecast targets. "

David
Reply
07 JUL 2014 - Update:

As rally does not occur and price falls further, now floor opens to 4.127 (i.e.: That is BELOW the structure defined in the chart as 4.217 ... So, not a typo).

David
Reply
08 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$NGAS hit target @ 4.217; Expect structural rally up to 4.500; Bulls still prevail:
snapshot
via http://www.tradingview.com"

snapshot


Traders,

First soft target reached. Expect a potential rally up to structures defined in the chart - I expect that 4.500 would impose the fiercest level of resistance and push bears to lower lows towards the next target levels.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
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