AFYV2016 trade ideas
Short OilBrent Oil is in overbought territory, likely forming a triple top on the daily chart, and retrace to test the trend line. short here with a first target around 70 and second target at 60.
CRUDE OIL: Sees Further Upside, Eyes The 70.41 Region CRUDE OIL: Sees Further Upside, Eyes The 70.41 Region
CRUDE OIL: The commodity faces further recovery threats following its higher close on Wednesday. On the downside, support resides at the 69.50 level where a break will expose the 69.00 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 68.50 level. Further down, support resides at the 68.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 70.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 71.00 level. A break above here will aim at the 71.50 level and then the 72.00 level followed by the 72.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. All in all, CRUDE OIL remains biased to the upside.
BR1Retraction can be expected up to the support channel where OBO is formed in the log.
Another important factor is the significant decline in long positions in oil contracts over the past two months. According to CFTC data, long positions in futures oil contracts have experienced a decrease of about 40% since April.
My analysis is not an investment recommendation, it is my personal work
BRENT futures on MOEX 1D price analysis Disclaimer: I'am working here just with technical analyses, this work is not include fundamental trends analyses, only few words and mathematical analysis.
Here is my thoughts of current oil price movement.
Last week was pretty good for a price, can we expect to downtrend for next week or next 2-3 days ?
In my opinion there was first try to leave channel (first wave), second was more successful (second wave) and now we can expect for a third wave?
1D MacD is shouting: SELL, but due to 4H MacD all is under control and we can expect for a new heights.
If we talk about growth: as for me i found only 2 growth waves, so i could expect 69.31 as first reversal level or 67.55. I can expect growth trend up to corridor created by 2 blue lines.
I believe that we will see 67.55, but confirmation of strong downtrend is under of grey corridor ( light blue area ).
News: Last week has positive news background about opec+ and etc. Can we expect support of positive news background or the decrease in investors' interest after last week's news? US report told us about huge crude oil reserves and low reserves of gasoline... WTI confidently going down on this news. Russian Ruble, MICEX index looks strong and MICEX oil industry index has positive trend.
Brent crude oil upside price action continuationEdu bullish setup for Brent crude oil June '18 futures contract.
Short SignalIf 57,3 stays untouched a break of 52,3 would be a bearish sign. Risk-taking traders are searching for earyl shortsignals at the price area of 54,7
Brent Oil: Long or ShortThe Oil market is in at a key pricing level whereby a ceiling has been put in place since Aug 2015.
The $54 level has been tested 4 times, and failed on each occasion with a notable retracement seen on each occasion.
If a break above this price ceiling is made, a buy order should be initiated with a target of $60.
Only sell if fundamental news comes out regarding the OPEC decision in Algiers i.e. a breakdown in agreements or flaring tensions between Saudi A. and Iran.
OIL TRADE OPPORTUNITYOil is moving down since it find resistance around 51 USD, this is a strong level.
The first support zone is around 46,25. And a bigger support zone can be found around 42 USD.
For the short term, Brent Oil can move lower to 46,25 - 46,50. When this level will break, the next stop is around 42 USD.
Brent oil eyeing 23.6% Fibo hurdleBrent clocked 5-month high of $46.10 and trades around the same in early Europe today. Markets ignored a record high weekly inventory buildup reported by US government and cheered IEA’s forecast of sharp drop in non-OPEC output in 2016
Formation – Rising channel
Resistance – $46.47, $47.65, $47.97
Support – $44.90, $43.32, $42.51-42.27
Brent’s day end closing well above $44.90 after a rebound from rising channel support indicates a potential for a rally towards $47.97, which is 23.6% Fibo of June 2014 high-Jan 2016 low).
Daily RSI is nearing overbought zone and may result in short-term loss of momentum and sideways to positive action.
On the downside, $44.90 is a strong support. A violation there would expose $43.23. Only a break below the same would signal short-term bullish invalidation.
Oil news
US crude inventories climbed 2.08 million barrels to 538.6 million barrels last week, the highest level since 1930, EIA data showed.
US crude output fell to 8.95 million barrels a day in the week ended April 15.
IEA expects biggest non-OPEC output fall in 25 years.
Oil looks unstoppable as of now, focusing on every other piece of good news. Moreover, analysts continue to talk about excess supply and rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran and view the current rise in prices with skepticism. The bullish momentum may continue so long as unless retailers begin taking note of the latest price rise and sentiment shifts to the bullish side.
Brent Feb 2016 Bullish Trend FormingChart forming mild upward trend after yesterday drop
RSI still showing upward trend, confirming resistance had been formed for bullish trend,
Risk level moderate.
