Thursday Forecast Crude!So my target for this week will be the weekly open. Simple as that sounds we do have some bsl above however Im expecting price to deliver BEARish as per HTF and the rejection for the Daily FVG Be aware that trading is light we are in the last couple of days of the Month. Shortby IamThattrader2
Crude**CrudeOil:** The forecast is for the price to rise to the top of the channel and then reverse the trend and fall to the key level at 72.69.by simaoxceps6
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE Long above $80.00 Per Barrel...?NYMEX:CL1! "If you train hard, you'll not only be hard, you'll be hard to beat." -Herschel Walker Oil has been struggling to Break above $80.00 Per Barrel roughly this whole month of MAY and this week we could actually see buyers gain strength and get over the hump... However that is a long shot prediction! Now if this actually does come to pass then this is what I'll need to see in order to go LONG... 1) Price is currently trading around a 4Hr Supply Zone. ** I want to see buyers push price up N break the supply zone and continue towards the HTF S&R Zone.... 2) We have a HTF Descending eR/LQ Trendline that I want to Buyers Breakout N push towards $80.00 Per Barrel... I would like to see a retest of the Failed 4Hr Supply Zone and eR/LQ trendline for buyers to gain more strength for pushing towards our target... 3) Now if we can get the sequence of events to take place that I stated above, Then we will wait for the break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone... I want to see confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF N Below to establish conviction in the move from buyers to enter LONG.... 4) Now if we can get the Break above $80.00 Per barrel with confirmed candle closures above price and above the S&R Zone then I'll Enter LONG and Target the break of the 4Hr Supply Zone price ($81.10 Per Barrel) 110 pts to be exact in our favor... Ill set my stop just below the S&R Zone EQ Level giving me roughly around a 2.7RR.... Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!! Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!! #BHM500K #NewERA #Champions Long06:43by TreyHighPwrUpdated 224
Crude Oil continue with the Uptrend On Crude Oil, it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 79.85 . There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. Strong uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Daleby Trader_Dale3
2024-05-28 - a daily price action after hour update - oilcomment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that 76 was rejected often enough and bulls are favored to at least test the top of the channel around 78.8. They poked enough today and finally broke above. I expect 84 over the next 1-2 weeks. Measured move would bring us to 84.3. current market cycle: Bear trend broken - Still inside bigger triangle (form of trading range) key levels: 76 - 84 bull case: Got my clear confirmation today and will look for long entries over the next days. Bulls probably expect a pull-back to maybe the daily 20ema (79) to form a channel). 1h 20ema is currently holding nicely. Invalid below 78.4. bear case: Bears stepped aside since Friday US session and we are in a strong bull trend inside this bigger trading range. Bears will try to sell new highs for small scalps. Best they could hope for is moving sideways around 80. short term: Up - 84 expected over the next 1-2 weeks. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. trade of the day: Just buy anywhere. Look which 20ema is holding and buy near it. Longby priceactiontds1
Options Blueprint Series: Pre and Post OPEC+ WTI Options PlaysIntroduction The world of crude oil trading is significantly influenced by the decisions made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These meetings, which often dictate production levels, can lead to substantial market volatility. Traders and investors closely monitor these events, not only for their immediate impact on oil prices but also for the broader economic implications. In this article, we explore two sophisticated options strategies designed to capitalize on the volatility surrounding OPEC+ meetings, specifically focusing on WTI Crude Oil Futures Options. We will delve into the double calendar spread, a strategy to exploit the expected rise in implied volatility (IV) before the meeting, and the transition to a long iron condor, which aims to profit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments. Understanding the Market Dynamics OPEC+ meetings are pivotal events in the global oil market, with decisions that can significantly influence crude oil prices. These meetings typically revolve around discussions on production quotas, which directly affect the supply side of the oil market. The anticipation and outcomes of these meetings create a fertile ground for volatility, especially in the days leading up to and immediately following the announcements. Implied Volatility (IV) Dynamics Pre-Meeting Volatility: In the days leading up to an OPEC+ meeting, implied volatility (IV) often rises. This increase is driven by market uncertainty and the potential for significant price moves based on the meeting's outcome. Traders buy options to hedge against or speculate on the potential price movements, thereby increasing the demand for options and pushing up IV. Post-Meeting Volatility: After the meeting, IV can either spike or drop sharply, depending on whether the outcome aligns with market expectations. An unexpected decision can cause a significant IV spike due to the new uncertainty introduced, while a decision in line with expectations can lead to a sharp drop as the uncertainty dissipates. Strategy 1: Double Calendar Spread The double calendar spread is a sophisticated options strategy that can potentially take advantage of rising implied volatility (IV) leading up to significant market events, such as the OPEC+ meeting. This strategy involves establishing positions in options with different expiration dates but the same strike price, allowing traders to profit from the increase in IV while managing risk effectively. Structure Long Legs: Buy longer-term call and put options. Short Legs: Sell shorter-term call and put options. The strategy typically involves setting up two calendar spreads at different strike prices (one higher and one lower), thus the term "double calendar." Rationale The rationale behind this strategy is that the longer-term options will experience a greater increase in IV as the event approaches, inflating their premiums more than the shorter-term options. As the short-term options expire, traders can realize a profit from the difference in premiums, assuming IV rises as expected. Strategy 2: Transition to Long Iron Condor As the OPEC+ meeting date approaches and the double calendar spread positions reach their peak profitability due to the elevated implied volatility (IV), it becomes strategic to transition into a long iron condor. This shift aims to capitalize on potential volatility changes and capture profits from the expected IV drop. Structure Closing the Double Calendar: Close the short-term call and put options from the double calendar spread. Setting Up the Long Iron Condor: Sell new OTM call and put options with the same expiration date as the long legs of the double calendar spread. The result is a position where the trader holds long options closer to the money and short options further out, creating a long condor structure. Rationale The rationale for transitioning to a long iron condor is to capture profits from a potential decrease in IV after the OPEC+ meeting. Practical Example To illustrate the application of the double calendar spread and the transition to a long iron condor, let's walk through a detailed example using hypothetical WTI Crude Oil Futures prices. Double Calendar Spread Setup 1. Initial Conditions: Current price of WTI Crude Oil Futures: $77.72 per barrel. Date: One week before the OPEC+ meeting. 2. Long Legs: Buy a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.32. Buy a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.38. 3. Short Legs: Sell a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.05. Sell a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.09. Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Transition to Long Iron Condor 1. Closing the Double Calendar: Close the short-term call and put options just before they expire @ 0.01 (assuming they are OTM on Friday May-31, before the market closes for the weekend). 2. Setting Up the Iron Condor: Sell a call option with a strike price of $82, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.13. Sell a put option with a strike price of $73, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.18. 0.11 and 0.17 are estimated values assuming WTI Crude Oil Futures remains fairly centered around 77.50 and that IV has risen into the OPEC+ meeting weekend. Transitioning from the Double Calendar to the Long Iron Condor would be done on Friday May-31. 3. Resulting Position: You now hold a long call at $81, a long put at $74, a short call at $82, and a short put at $73, forming a long iron condor. The risk of the trade has been reduced by half (assuming the real fills coincide with the estimated values above) from 0.56 to 0.27 = $270 with a potential for reward of up to 0.73 (1 – 0.27) = $730. This practical example demonstrates how to effectively implement and transition between the double calendar spread and the long iron condor to navigate the volatility surrounding an OPEC+ meeting. Importance of Risk Management Effective risk management is crucial when implementing options strategies, particularly around significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting. The volatility and potential for sharp market moves require traders to have robust risk management practices to protect their capital and ensure long-term success. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure Undefined risk exposure occurs when traders have no clear limit on their potential losses. This can happen with certain options strategies that involve selling naked options. To avoid this, traders should always define their risk by using strategies that have built-in risk limits, such as spreads and condors. Precise Entries and Exits Making precise entries and exits is critical in options trading. This involves: Entering trades at optimal times to maximize potential profits. Exiting trades at predetermined levels to lock in gains or limit losses. Adjusting trades based on market conditions and new information. Additional Risk Management Practices Diversification: Spread risk across different assets and strategies. Position Sizing: Allocate only a small percentage of capital to each trade to avoid significant losses from a single position. Continuous Monitoring: Regularly review and adjust positions as market conditions evolve. By adhering to these risk management principles, traders can navigate the complexities of the options market and mitigate the risks associated with volatile events like OPEC+ meetings. Conclusion Navigating the volatility surrounding significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting requires strategic planning and effective risk management. By implementing the double calendar spread before the meeting, traders can capitalize on the anticipated rise in implied volatility (IV). Transitioning to a long iron condor after the meeting allows traders to benefit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments or price stabilization. These strategies, when executed correctly, offer a structured approach to managing market uncertainties and capturing profits from both pre- and post-event volatility. The key lies in precise timing, appropriate strike selection, and diligent risk management practices to protect against adverse market movements. By understanding and applying these sophisticated options strategies, traders can enhance their ability to navigate the complexities of the crude oil market and leverage the opportunities presented by OPEC+ meetings. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv3
Will oil plummet? Or is this chart primed for a reversal?Oil ended april as a first red month, in which case may id be looking for sell high, they kept price suppressed and didnt attempt to make any significant higher highs this month, since there was no real place, except the start of may, to sell high, (and fundamentals somewhat driving my thesis) i would expect them to keep trapping volume down low for the frontside move of the week, and shift momentum to the upside later in the week ending as a first green month (closing the month above previous month close 81.15 (CL1!) - after attempting to continue going lower in a previous downtrend) friday was a first green day, so mondays thesis would be to look for a buy low in any 1 of the 3 sessions. past 3 weeks have been inside week for the most part, this is primed for a serious reversal. May the markets be with you all!! Longby thesturdygentleman116
break and retest 22 it broke past the trend line and shot to the downside my prediction was incorrect i thought it was going to retest the trendline and shoot the upside. this is important to pay attention to the whole screen or market and really analysis the divergence and trend rather bullish or bearish, practice!10:28by aarudaprodigy0
WTI Crude Oil Bearish MegaphoneCurrent trade I am in, target specified in the chart. Good luckShortby TrickleDownFX0
CRUDEOIL 1HDOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN IS OBSERVED PRICE MAY TOUCH THE RED LINE AND FALLS BECAUSE IT IS A STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL I Am Not SEBI Registered Analyst. All Post and Levels Posting is only for educational and knowledge purpose. I Am not responsible for your any kind of loss or profit. No Claim, All Rights Reserved.‼️Longby saimandali0
2024-06-04 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: Yeah oil again. This is in play and you should look for strong momentum trades. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 70-77 bull case: Yesterday I said bulls need to keep it above 74 or we see 72. Low of the day was 72.48. 1h 20ema was resistance and bulls need a close above that. Still the same argument as yesterday. They need to stop new lows and make market go sideways. They also retested the bear channel from last week, from which we broke below, and they were rejected. Only thing they have going for now is that on higher tf you can clearly see 3 pushes down. Would still not look to buy other than scalping. Invalid below 70 bear case: Globex marked the high of the day and the 15m 20ema was resistance until 1h before US open. From there the market was in a trading range until it touched the 1h 20ema and sold off again. Bears want to keep the momentum going to get to 70 because that would be a clear brake of the bull trend line. Measured move from the last 5 trading days would bring us to 64. Next target for bears is a trade below 72 and then 70 if the momentum keeps going but we are near the lower bear channel line and market will probably need to move sideways to up first. short term: It’s only going down so look for short entries. I expect a pull-back soon but it could just be a shallow one where we move sideways. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday trade of the day: If you weren’t short during Globex, tricky to trade tbh. You could scalp every new high for a short but you really need to know what you are doing. Can also just not trade this or wait for the 1h 20ema touch for a short.by priceactiontds0
CL waiting for BOS on 15 min to go longCL waiting for BOS and pullback for entry from 15 min fvg LONGLongby MGXTRADE1
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: NASDAQ, SP500, DOW, CRUDE OIL (Part 2)We are covering the indices and crude oil in this video. Providing analysis for the week of June 3-7th.20:00by RT_MoneyUpdated 220
CL1 WeeklyThesre is a Wolfe Wave and Price hugging that Extended 1-4 Line in future is Possible . For price to pop above that Channel to 110.00 Area is also possible . All my Price levels are based on Fib's . So we could be locked in this Channel for a few Months by johnmadUpdated 116
Crude Steps and Forces- all rectangles are potential support/resistance with the last one blue being a probable exception - the 3 marked with dots levels can also become support/resistance, especially the first bottom blueish one, but they can also become like milestones levels or steps in the evolution of the price - the 2 green curves are also potential support/resistance acting as forces pushing the price up or down This snapshot considers the bullish scenario where the price remains above 66, with potential reversal patterns to occur near the red rectangle zone.by nenUpdated 0
#202423 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls rejected 76 area 4 times now. At some point one side will concede and we see a bigger move. Patience pays. Bulls want retest of the daily 20ema and bear channel next (78.8). Afterwards break above the bear channel. Bears had two clear pushes down and now a tripple bottom. I think they will give up and market trades back up again. But I wait for clear confirmation on this. comment: Here is also my comment from last week “Market in total balance 76 - 80. Buy low and sell high. Right now I prefer a spike below to around 75 which bulls gladly buy and we then trade back to 83 over the next weeks. Invalid below 74.” Nothing changed in Oil. Bulls got a very small spike above 80 which was rejected again and we are 77 again. Play the range until we get a breakout with follow through. One funny “coincidence” is that the 50% pull-back from the 2021 low to the 2022 high, is about 78.3 and now guess where the freaking 50% pb of this trading range is. Market is always giving some hints. Learn to spot them. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 76 - 80 bull case: Ascending triangle with around 4 highs and 4 lows. Market is in breakout mode and will probably test lower or higher prices next. I have absolutely no idea where we will break out first so just do the high probability thing here, buy low and sell high when you see good signal bars. Bulls see this as the lows of this trading range and want to reverse here for at least 80 again. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “Kinda neutral 76 - 80. Clear trading range with tails above and below. Market in balance. R:R here is with the bulls for test of daily 20ema at 78.6 again.” → Last Sunday we traded 77.72 and now we are at 76.99. High of the week was 80.62 and I said we will probably at least hit the daily ema again. That was a perfect outlook for at least 90 ticks but could have held til 80 or higher. 80 Would have been 228 ticks. Hope you made some. short term: R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle and now we test the lower trend line again. —unchanged current swing trade: None Update: removed bull flag/bear trend, whatever you want to call it. It’s the same and you trade it the same. Added expanding triangle trend linesLongby priceactiontds0
Mastering Top-Down Analysis: Spot High Probability SetupsDiscover how to elevate your trading game using a powerful top-down approach across multiple time frames. Using real-time examples from Oil Crude Futures, you'll learn to identify the key price signatures that signal high-probability entries. Gain valuable insights on: Implementing a top-down analysis to spot lucrative trading opportunities Recognizing specific price patterns that indicate optimal entry points Setting realistic trade expectations and defining your targets Framing your entries with precision on lower time frames Long31:14by LiquidityTrackerUpdated 0
OilThats what i tihnk will hapend on OIL, Technical analysis is based on MTF AnalaysisLongby andy4444_0
Crude Oil, Not Out of the Woods YetThe chart above references continuous (front-month) Crude Oil, below we are discussing the July contract. Crude Oil (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled 79.83, up 2.11 WTI Crude Oil futures cleared the psychological $80 mark, but can it settle above? A major catalyst to start the week was strong travel demand data from the U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend and from China of late. We also believe geopolitical tailwinds are more relevant than headlines may give credit at the moment. Ultimately, weakness last week came on the heels of the White House announcing a release of Gasoline reserves ahead of the weekend and this was quickly shaken off and further helped create a technical bottom at a critical area of support we have been highlighting. Still, price action is not in the clear, and we find it a good time to monetize some of this move at least if you’ve been able to capitalize as it is testing major three-star resistance at 81.15-81.28, aligning a gap with the 50% retracement back to the April 12th high. Additionally, the 50-day moving average comes in at 80.84. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 81.15-81.28***, 82.03-82.34*** Pivot: 79.97-80.11*** Support: 79.46-79.61**, 79.01-79.05*, 78.66-78.78***, 77.72-78.05*** *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.by Blue_Line_Futures0
Wednesday Forecast Crude OilWe had a very expansive two days From the Bank Holiday Monday and Tuesday. I do expect the market to slow down a little before we start to move higher to 81.50 as long as price stays above the 1hr fvg and the 1hr +ob my bias will be Bullish. If we close bellow these pd arrays then a retracement is in order and different targets will have to be looked at. Pretty simple Longby IamThattrader0
Oil Daily Charts - Long Trade - Image I'm looking to take a long here on oil, we have had a good pullback, and I believe we are still in a bullish phase, so I will take a long. TP and SL are as per the image. Longby TraderRiz3
Oil - BUY Out of Bounds FTLMA Bands at bottom band Retrace Over Extended Double Bounce on Support Aggressive Entry Passive Entry After pull back into Fair Value Gap + Continuation Nice Order Block Below Has been pushing down all week really Could well be heading for that Lets See : )Longby NZ_SharemanUpdated 1
CRUDE OIL (CLN2024, USOIL, WTI)... BEARISH!Bias is Bullish. Daily TF shows 2 weeks of consolidation supported by a Daily +FVG. Friday finally saw a "BO" as price traded through the swing high with a close above it. Note that price is now inside the a Daily -FVG. Potential for a bearish reaction? Yes. However, I believe it will be short term if anything. The 4H gives more detail. One can see bullish structure in place that will support a move higher, potentially to to test 80.21. Thank you for viewing! Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! May profits be upon you.Shortby RT_MoneyUpdated 447