Fundamental Analysis
With NFP around the corner, I wanted to do a fundamental breakdown of the US economy.
US Dollar strength has been sustained although economic indicators are showing signs of recession.
The crypto market is showing signs of a possible bullish reversal.
The market for the 10 year treasury notes has seen to bottom out for now as we are getting come clear bids coming through in the market. As we speak, the market has bounce off of 118.770 and appears to be testing the 120 handle to the upside. Further resistance can be found at 120.25 and 121 if we could get more buying momentum coming in. If not, we will likely to...
Powell's message from yesterdays meeting was received by the markets load and clear; 50 bips is coming at the next meeting. This forward guidance by the FED has been the primary driver of higher yields in the markets over the last several weeks. Now that we are sitting at 3% on the 10 year treasury yield and still having not bottomed out, we are likely to test the...
The 10 year treasury note saw a small bounce after nearly hitting 3% on the yields. Since then we only recover a few points and began to establish a sideway trading range at 120.3 and 118.78. As of now those are the key levels to watch in the bond market as this market decides to take a breather from the most recent selloff.
The 10 year treasury market hit 2.98% overnight, just 2 bips shy of the 3% mark before rallying back up. As we mentioned earlier in the week, the 3% target was the likely area the treasury market wanted to revisit so it would be likely that it will see buyers coming in around there. As of now, the risk on nature in the overall markets suggest that the treasury...
The treasury market has been dropping hard with a predicted target at 3% on the yield. Currently we are only sitting at 2.9%, which means we still have another 10 bips to fall before the market is satisfy with pricing in the aggressive FED tightening cycle. We are looking for a break of the most recent low at 119.45 and the next target for the 10 year treasury...
The bond market appears to making a corrective wave back up after creating a new weekly low. As we move higher in the bonds, the technical analysis is suggesting to us that a short term reverse head and shoulder may be building up. With the neckline at 121.35, a break of this resistance can quickly see bonds trading back towards the 122.07 or 123.10 levels.
The bond market continues its march towards 3% yield in the price action as we made a new daily low in the 10 year. At this point its a matter of when the bond market sell off will take us to 3%, not if. With a slew of economic and central banking data being released this week, its highly likely that we get there sooner rather than later. Next target in the price...
Bond market continues to see selling pressure from the market as the hawkish fed is driven investors out of the safe asset. As we currently sit at the 120 handle in bonds, we are seeing further selling pressure to the start of this week and a move towards 3% yield is likely to happen. This means the price for bonds can continue to drop further towards 117.60 area.
The 10 year treasury market continues to price in further rate hikes from the fed by selling off. This has driven the price down to our support level 120.25. Any further deterioration in the bond market and we can see the yields start driving towards the 3% mark or further downside in the bond market towards the 117.60 level.
The bond market continues to sell off further while pricing in the FED rate hikes. As of this week, we have already touched the 2.66% and likely will be headed towards the 3% handle, taking the bond prices much lower as we go there. Key levels to watch for to the downside would be at 120.25 and 117.60 zone.
The bond market trade lower in the overnight session driving the yields on the 10 year towards 2.66%. At this rate, all the FED hawkishness will likely keep pushing the yields towards 3%, perhaps even 3.25%. As for the price, that means trading around 120.50 at the current rate with more downside pressure to get the price of bonds trading around 117.60 to the downside.
The bond market has seen further selling in the overnight session while still maintaining the range of 123.12 resistance and the floor price at 121.15. Currently looks like the bond market wants to retest the lows set back last week as we enter the NA trading session. With a slew of FED speakers scheduled to speak today, its likely that any further hawkish tones...
After bottoming out at 2.55% on the 10 year treasury yields last week, bonds seems ready to move high. We have made a new lower high and appear to find more buyers coming in. With that say, there is currently levels at 123.12 and 123.60 to watch out for if bonds continue to see more bids coming at the start of the month of April.
The bond market catch a bounce to our resistance point during the previous trading session to settle into the 123.20 area. As we get close to the Payrolls Number from Friday, one of two things is likely to happen: remain neutral or priced in bias. The day before the payrolls release usually will be a strong tell tale sign from the bond market as to what those...
The 2-10 year spread inverted for the first time since 2019 and is suggesting a recession is imminent. The 10 year treasury note catch a bounce back to the 123.12 level in the overnight trading session and has since pulled back from resistance. With a slew of data being released this morning, its hard to pin point which direction the bond market wants to trade in,...
The bond pushes forward with its slide lower as we settle at the 2.5% mark on the yield and look to the next levels. Currently 2.75 and 3% seem to be the ideal targets that bond traders are gunning for. The follow yield levels on the bond prices would be at 120.8 or 117.80 respectively.
