ES - September 24th - Daily Trade PlanBefore reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the weekly trade plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section)
My trade plan is out later this am due to some family commitments. I will not be highlighting yesterdays, so please read it and review the real-time notes that I posted during the day.
September 24th - 7:30am EST
Overnight session high is 6728 and low is 6711. We have been moving up the levels in a very slow structured way since finding a low yesterday around 6701. Ideally, price will either continue to grind up and retest the 6741-44 area of where we sold off from, or we will need to retest overnight low or yesterday's low to flush and reclaim and move higher to back test the 6741-44 area.
Key Support Levels - 6721, 6715, 6711, 6701
Key Resistance Levels - 6728, 6733, 6741, 6744, 6754
We are in a bit of a holding pattern, unless you have a low time frame entry strategy for a scalp. I personally do not see much to get excited about as price slowly moves higher into some key resistance levels. IF, price loses 6715 and can't reclaim it, then we will probably head lower to retest yesterday's lows. Since I DO NOT SHORT ES, I won't have any good quality setups until we get a pullback. I will be patient and wait for a flush and reclaim of 6711, but 6701 or 6697 would be a much higher quality area.
Make sure you look at yesterday's sell off and plan. I wrote at "1:40pm - I would let price build a base. It could be here at 6710, 6705 or down at 6696. Give it time to build a base with a move lower like this. NO RUSH." We found structure at 6701 and it took us over 2hrs to build a base and chopped everyone around inside that tight 15pt range.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
SPF1! trade ideas
VWAP/OR Setups & Macro Crosscurrents (Sept 24, 2025)The S&P 500 (MES1!) is currently in a volatile state as Wednesday’s trading session commences.
Macro headwinds have dampened expectations for further rate cuts, leading to weakness in Big Tech yesterday. On the other hand, sector tailwinds have emerged, with Micron reporting strong Q4 earnings and Boeing and Palantir forming an AI partnership. These developments have generated after-hours optimism, supporting the performance of semiconductors and AI-related stocks.
This volatile environment presents opportunities for scalpers. The volatility around VWAP/OR levels, coupled with liquidity-driven inflections, creates fertile ground for scalping.
Chart Context (MES1! – 15m & 5m overlays):
VWAP serves as a key pivot point, with multiple reclaims and rejections occurring overnight. The ORH stands at 6720.50, while the ORL is at 6719.75. As of pre-market, the VWAP is also at 6719.75. High-volume nodes at 6710–6722 act as scalp magnet zones. The overnight low at 6701.50 remains the downside inflection point.
Scalping Plan:
- Long bias above VWAP/OR breaks with volume. Target 6728 to 6735+.
- Fade VWAP rejections back to OR. Quick 1–2pt rotations.
- Avoid chop inside VWAP compression.
Risk Management:
- Use half-size into the open; scale only on confirmed breakout.
- Hard stop: sustained trade below 6701.50.
- Event risk: 10:00 AM New Home Sales, 4:10 PM Mary Daly speech.
Takeaway:
Scalpers should focus on reacting to market movements rather than predicting future trends. The ongoing debate between Powell and Micron is likely to lead to whipsaws in the market. Therefore, it’s crucial to adhere to VWAP/OR discipline, respect liquidity pockets, and let the market tape confirm the direction of the trade.
Introduction to Arbitrage in Global MarketsPart 1: Understanding Arbitrage – The Concept
Arbitrage is a fundamental concept in finance that has existed for centuries, yet it has evolved significantly with the growth of global markets, technology, and financial instruments. At its core, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of price differences between markets for the same asset, security, or commodity. By buying low in one market and selling high in another, traders can theoretically make risk-free profits.
Arbitrage is often considered a mechanism that helps maintain market efficiency. Prices in global markets are constantly influenced by supply, demand, and other economic variables. When a price discrepancy arises, arbitrageurs exploit it, which eventually brings prices in different markets back into equilibrium.
Key Characteristics of Arbitrage
Risk-Free Profit (Theoretical Concept):
In ideal conditions, arbitrage is risk-free because it exploits simultaneous price differences. However, in real-world markets, transaction costs, taxes, and timing issues can reduce or eliminate these profits.
Market Inefficiency Exploitation:
Arbitrage exists because markets are not perfectly efficient. Price discrepancies may arise due to delays in information, regulatory differences, or market segmentation.
Simultaneous Transactions:
To be considered true arbitrage, the transactions must occur nearly simultaneously to avoid exposure to price fluctuations.
Leverage of Technology:
In modern global markets, arbitrage often requires sophisticated technology, high-speed trading platforms, and algorithms to detect and exploit price differences in milliseconds.
Types of Arbitrage in Global Markets
Arbitrage is not a one-size-fits-all concept. Over time, financial markets have developed various forms of arbitrage to address different market inefficiencies:
Spatial Arbitrage (Geographical Arbitrage):
This involves exploiting price differences for the same asset across different geographic locations. For example, gold might trade at a slightly lower price in London than in New York. Traders can buy in London and sell in New York, profiting from the discrepancy.
Triangular Arbitrage (Currency Arbitrage):
In the forex market, triangular arbitrage occurs when there is a price imbalance among three currencies. For instance, a trader might notice that the direct exchange rate between USD and EUR is inconsistent with the indirect exchange through JPY. By converting USD → JPY → EUR → USD, a profit can be realized.
Statistical Arbitrage (StatArb):
This approach uses statistical models to identify mispriced securities. Instead of relying solely on observable price differences, traders use historical data and correlations to predict temporary inefficiencies. It is widely used in equity markets and relies heavily on quantitative models and algorithms.
Merger Arbitrage (Risk Arbitrage):
In the M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions) market, arbitrage involves buying the stock of a company being acquired at a discount to the acquisition price and selling the acquirer’s stock if applicable. While profitable, this type carries higher risk due to regulatory hurdles and deal failures.
Convertible Arbitrage:
This involves trading convertible bonds and the underlying stock to exploit price differences between them. Investors buy the undervalued asset and hedge the risk with the other, aiming for a risk-adjusted profit.
Regulatory and Tax Arbitrage:
Different countries have varying tax policies and financial regulations. Some firms structure transactions to exploit these differences to minimize tax liability or regulatory costs. While profitable, it must comply with legal frameworks to avoid penalties.
The Role of Arbitrage in Global Market Efficiency
Arbitrage plays a crucial role in maintaining price consistency across global markets. By exploiting temporary discrepancies:
It narrows bid-ask spreads in financial instruments.
Encourages market integration, connecting local and international markets.
Improves liquidity, as arbitrageurs provide capital and facilitate transactions.
Reduces opportunities for persistent mispricing, making markets more efficient.
Without arbitrage, global markets would suffer from persistent inefficiencies and price distortions. However, with the growth of technology and algorithmic trading, price discrepancies are often corrected in milliseconds, leaving very narrow windows for profitable arbitrage opportunities.
Challenges and Risks in Global Arbitrage
Despite its theoretical promise of risk-free profit, arbitrage in practice involves multiple risks:
Execution Risk:
Delays in executing trades across different markets may lead to losses if prices move before the transaction completes.
Liquidity Risk:
Some markets or assets may lack sufficient liquidity, preventing large trades without impacting prices.
Counterparty Risk:
In global markets, trades often depend on intermediaries. Failure of a counterparty can result in losses.
Regulatory Risk:
Different countries impose varying regulations on trading, capital flows, and taxation. Arbitrage strategies must comply with legal frameworks, or traders risk fines and penalties.
Technological Risk:
Algorithmic and high-frequency trading rely on robust infrastructure. Any malfunction or latency can result in missed opportunities or losses.
Currency and Political Risk:
For international arbitrage, currency fluctuations and political events can quickly erode potential profits.
Global Examples of Arbitrage
Forex Markets:
A classic example is triangular arbitrage among major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY). Even small inefficiencies can generate millions in profit when leveraged across large volumes.
Commodity Markets:
Oil, gold, and agricultural commodities are traded globally. Traders exploit differences in local futures prices or spot markets to profit.
Equity Markets:
Stock exchanges like NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE often have slight price differences for dual-listed companies. High-frequency traders exploit these micro-movements.
Cryptocurrency Markets:
With the rise of digital assets, arbitrage opportunities emerge across crypto exchanges. Bitcoin, for example, might trade at slightly different prices on Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken.
Part 2: Strategies and Techniques of Arbitrage in Global Markets
1. Classical Arbitrage Strategies
Even in the modern, high-speed trading era, many fundamental arbitrage strategies remain relevant:
a) Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage
Mechanism: Involves buying an asset in the spot market and simultaneously selling its futures contract if the futures price is higher than the spot price plus carrying costs (storage, insurance, interest).
Example: Suppose gold is trading at $2,000/oz in the spot market, while the 3-month futures contract is $2,050/oz. Buying gold today and selling the futures contract locks in a profit, minus carrying costs.
Significance: This strategy aligns spot and futures prices and reduces market mispricing.
b) Reverse Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage
Mechanism: Happens when futures prices are lower than the spot plus carrying costs. Traders sell the spot asset short and buy futures.
Impact: Prevents futures prices from diverging significantly from spot prices, stabilizing derivative markets.
c) Triangular Currency Arbitrage
Mechanism: Exploits discrepancies in exchange rates among three currencies. Traders convert Currency A → B → C → A, aiming for a net gain.
Practical Note: Most forex platforms now detect and automatically exploit small discrepancies, leaving minimal manual opportunities.
2. Statistical and Quantitative Arbitrage (StatArb)
Modern arbitrage increasingly relies on data and algorithms. Statistical arbitrage differs from classical arbitrage because it:
Uses historical price data, correlations, and probability models.
Trades pairs of assets that historically move together but temporarily diverge.
Example: Pairs Trading
Identify two historically correlated stocks, say Stock X and Stock Y.
If X rises significantly while Y lags, buy Y and short X, betting their prices will converge.
Advantage: Market-neutral; profits even in volatile markets if divergence corrects.
Tools Used
Machine learning algorithms to detect anomalies.
High-frequency trading systems for rapid execution.
Risk management frameworks to prevent losses if correlations fail.
3. Risk Arbitrage (Merger Arbitrage)
Mechanism: Focuses on corporate events, such as mergers or acquisitions.
Strategy: Buy shares of the target company at a discount to the announced acquisition price and sell shares of the acquiring company if applicable.
Risks: Deals may fail due to regulatory rejection, shareholder opposition, or financing issues.
Example: If Company A announces it will acquire Company B for $100 per share, and B’s stock trades at $95, arbitrageurs may buy B’s stock hoping it rises to $100 upon deal completion.
4. Technology and Algorithmic Arbitrage
Global markets are increasingly dominated by high-frequency trading (HFT) and automated arbitrage:
Speed Matters: Price discrepancies may exist for mere milliseconds. Only advanced trading algorithms can detect and execute trades fast enough.
Co-location Services: Many hedge funds place servers physically close to exchange servers to reduce latency.
Cross-Market Monitoring: Algorithms monitor multiple global exchanges in real-time for mispricing opportunities.
Example: Buying an undervalued stock in the London Stock Exchange and simultaneously selling its equivalent in the NYSE within milliseconds.
5. Global Commodity Arbitrage
Arbitrage in commodities markets often exploits:
Geographical differences: Prices of oil, gas, or metals vary by region due to local demand, transportation costs, and storage constraints.
Time-based differences: Futures contracts may temporarily misprice compared to spot prices.
Example: Crude oil may be cheaper in the Middle East than in Europe due to local supply-demand imbalances. Traders can transport and sell it at a higher price.
6. Cryptocurrency Arbitrage
Cryptocurrencies present a new frontier:
Exchange Arbitrage: Prices of the same cryptocurrency differ slightly across exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken.
Triangular Crypto Arbitrage: Similar to forex, using three crypto pairs.
Decentralized Exchange Arbitrage: Differences between decentralized and centralized exchanges can yield opportunities.
Challenges: High transaction fees, blockchain confirmation delays, and regulatory risks can reduce profits.
7. Implementing Arbitrage: Key Considerations
Even seasoned traders must navigate practical and operational challenges:
Transaction Costs: Profits can evaporate after commissions, spreads, and taxes.
Liquidity: Thinly traded markets can prevent large trades without moving prices.
Currency Conversion: International arbitrage often requires currency conversions, introducing risk.
Legal Compliance: Cross-border trades must comply with regulations, taxes, and anti-money laundering laws.
Capital Requirements: Arbitrage often involves leveraging large amounts of capital to generate meaningful profits.
8. Real-World Examples of Arbitrage in Global Markets
Forex Arbitrage: Major banks frequently exploit triangular currency arbitrage, though opportunities are brief due to automated trading.
Stock Market Arbitrage: Dual-listed companies, e.g., Royal Dutch Shell in London and Amsterdam, present opportunities for price convergence.
Commodity Arbitrage: During periods of supply disruption, oil traders profit from regional price differences.
Crypto Arbitrage: Bitcoin and Ethereum trades across global exchanges illustrate how rapid price movements create opportunities.
MESZ2025 WEEK 39 SEPT 21ST Looking for MON, TUE, WED to be the low of the week, trading towards then away from he daily VIB. Because of PMI on TUES look for early week run
Look for buying opportunities once price has broken below the 3H Bullish breaker #6715. Note that price can run lower into the BOB (Bullish OB) $6703 or $6700 before turning around.
IF- price closes below the 3H OB at $6797. Hold to see if price runs lower breaking and closing below 3H swing lows. You could be wrong in your analysis and price may be trying to run lower.
NOTE we are entering MC-NM. This is typically a retracement which should be to the up side given market structure.
NOTE: you are looking to hold for a 12 point run based on the fib. The best BUYs will be formed below $6715
CALENDAR EVENT
MON
- 12PM - FOMC SPEAKER
TUES
- 9:45AM - PMI (HIGH)
- 12:35AM - POWELL SPEAKS (HIGH)
WED
- 10AM - NEW HOMES SALES
THUR
- 8:30AM - FINAL GDP (HIGH)
- 10AM - EXISTING HOME SALES
FRIDAY
- 8:30AM - CORE PCE INDEX (HIGH)
Final Note
- remember to keep track of midnight/8:30 opening prices. Always refer back to the 1H and 3H
to confirm what side of the market you should be on.
- Alway look to buy in a discount range and sell in a premium range.
Risk- Only risk 150- 200 per trade on initial entry. you can add lots once you confirm trade is good. Refer back to higher TF before adding lots.
Max two trades per session.
ID: 2025 - 0095.5.2025
Trade #9 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 137 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
OF NOTE: This trade opened at EXCELLENT fills, and there is zero risk to the upside. The danger is of a catastrophic move to the downside, which will bring in phenomenal gains for ID 006 and 008. 😊
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Bearish scalping S&P500S&P500 ideas:
Overnight bearish (0.3% drop after the daily open vs. 0.1% rise)
On Friday, upward gaps tend to close more than on other days.
Gaps of up to 0.2% tend to close at 87% within the same day.
0.2% will be there around 8:30.
Opening around there and rising, a good selling area is at 25% adr, which matches yesterday's negative delta.
A possible sell-off with context if it shows that sellers are still there.
Potential neutral zone tradeThe daily structure in the S&P 500 implied the potential of a neutral zone trade. This indicates that both buyers and sellers are present and a sideways movement in this market. To determine if this neutral zone environment will hold Friday's close will be very important.
The Domino EffectHow a Crisis in One Country Shakes Global Markets
Part 1: The Nature of Interconnected Global Markets
1.1 Globalization and Economic Interdependence
In earlier centuries, economies were relatively insulated. A banking collapse in one country might not ripple across the world. Today, however, globalization has created a tightly linked system. Goods made in China are consumed in Europe; oil produced in the Middle East powers factories in India; financial instruments traded in New York impact investors in Africa.
Trade linkages: A slowdown in one economy reduces demand for imports, hurting its trading partners.
Financial integration: Global banks and investors allocate capital worldwide. A collapse in one asset class often leads to capital flight elsewhere.
Supply chains: Modern production is fragmented globally. A crisis in one key hub can paralyze industries across continents.
1.2 Channels of Transmission
Economic shocks can travel across borders in several ways:
Financial contagion: Stock market crashes, banking failures, and currency collapses spread panic.
Trade disruptions: Falling demand in one country hurts exporters elsewhere.
Currency spillovers: Devaluation in one country pressures others to follow, creating competitive depreciation.
Investor psychology: Fear spreads faster than facts. When confidence erodes, investors often withdraw from risky markets en masse.
Part 2: Historical Case Studies of the Domino Effect
2.1 The Great Depression (1929–1930s)
The Wall Street Crash of 1929 began in the United States but soon plunged the entire world into depression. As U.S. banks collapsed and demand fell, countries that relied on exports to America suffered. International trade contracted by two-thirds, leading to widespread unemployment and social unrest worldwide.
2.2 The Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998)
What began as a currency crisis in Thailand quickly spread across East Asia. Investors lost confidence, pulling money from Indonesia, South Korea, and Malaysia. Stock markets collapsed, currencies depreciated, and IMF bailouts followed. The crisis revealed how tightly emerging economies were linked through speculative capital flows.
2.3 The Global Financial Crisis (2008)
The U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Lehman Brothers’ collapse led to a global credit freeze. Banks in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere faced severe liquidity shortages. International trade shrank by nearly 12% in 2009, and stock markets around the world lost trillions in value. This crisis highlighted how financial products like mortgage-backed securities tied together banks worldwide.
2.4 The Eurozone Debt Crisis (2010–2012)
Greece’s debt problems quickly spread fears of contagion across Europe. Investors worried that Portugal, Spain, and Italy could face similar defaults. Bond yields soared, threatening the stability of the euro. The European Central Bank and IMF intervened, but not before global investors felt the tremors.
2.5 COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
The pandemic began as a health crisis in Wuhan, China, but within weeks it disrupted the global economy. Supply chains broke down, trade collapsed, tourism stopped, and financial markets plunged. Lockdowns across the world triggered the sharpest economic contraction in decades, proving that non-economic crises can also trigger financial domino effects.
Part 3: Mechanisms of Global Transmission
3.1 Financial Markets as Shock Carriers
Capital is mobile. When investors fear losses in one country, they often pull funds from other markets too—especially emerging economies seen as risky. This creates a contagion effect, where unrelated economies suffer simply because they are perceived as similar.
3.2 Trade Dependency
Countries dependent on exports are especially vulnerable. For example, Germany’s reliance on exports to Southern Europe meant that the Eurozone debt crisis hit German factories hard. Similarly, China’s export slowdown during COVID-19 hurt suppliers in Southeast Asia.
3.3 Currency and Exchange Rate Volatility
When a major economy devalues its currency, trading partners may respond with devaluations of their own. This “currency war” creates global instability. During the Asian crisis, once Thailand devalued the baht, other Asian nations followed suit, intensifying the crisis.
3.4 Psychological & Behavioral Factors
Markets are not purely rational. Fear and panic amplify contagion. A crisis often leads to herding behavior, where investors sell assets simply because others are selling. This causes overshooting—currencies collapse more than fundamentals justify, worsening the crisis.
Part 4: The Role of Institutions in Crisis Management
4.1 International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The IMF often steps in to stabilize economies through emergency loans, as seen in Asia (1997) and Greece (2010). However, IMF policies sometimes attract criticism for imposing austerity, which can deepen recessions.
4.2 Central Banks and Coordination
During 2008, central banks across the world—like the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan—coordinated interest rate cuts and liquidity injections. This collective action helped restore confidence.
4.3 G20 and Global Governance
The G20 emerged as a key crisis-management forum after 2008. By bringing together major economies, it coordinated stimulus measures and financial reforms. However, the effectiveness of such cooperation often depends on political will.
Part 5: Why Crises Spread Faster Today
Technology and speed: Information flows instantly through news and social media, fueling panic selling.
Complex financial instruments: Derivatives, swaps, and securitized assets tie banks and funds across borders.
Globalized supply chains: A factory shutdown in one country can halt production worldwide.
Dependence on capital flows: Emerging economies rely heavily on foreign investment, making them vulnerable to sudden outflows.
Part 6: Lessons and Strategies for Resilience
6.1 For Governments
Diversify economies to avoid overdependence on one sector or market.
Maintain healthy fiscal reserves to cushion shocks.
Strengthen banking regulations to reduce financial vulnerabilities.
6.2 For Investors
Recognize that diversification across countries may not always protect against global contagion.
Monitor global risk indicators, not just local markets.
Use hedging strategies to reduce currency and credit risks.
6.3 For International Institutions
Improve early-warning systems to detect vulnerabilities.
Promote coordinated responses to crises.
Reform global financial rules to prevent excessive risk-taking.
Part 7: The Future of Global Crisis Contagion
The next global crisis could emerge from many sources:
Climate change disruptions (floods, droughts, migration pressures).
Geopolitical conflicts (trade wars, regional wars, sanctions).
Technological disruptions (cyberattacks on financial systems).
Debt bubbles in emerging economies.
Given the growing complexity of global interdependence, crises will likely spread even faster in the future. The challenge is not to prevent shocks entirely—since they are inevitable—but to design systems that are resilient enough to absorb them without collapsing.
Conclusion
The domino effect in global markets is both a risk and a reminder of shared destiny. A crisis in one country can no longer be dismissed as “their problem.” Whether it is a banking failure in New York, a currency collapse in Bangkok, or a health crisis in Wuhan, the shockwaves ripple outward, reshaping the economic landscape for everyone.
Globalization has made economies interdependent, but also inter-vulnerable. The lessons from past crises show that cooperation, resilience, and adaptability are crucial. The domino effect may never disappear, but its destructive impact can be mitigated if nations, institutions, and investors act with foresight.
The world economy, like a row of dominoes, is only as strong as its weakest piece. Protecting that weakest link is the surest way to prevent the fall of all.
S&P 500 2030 ForecastFor the S&P 500 I think its fair to put the 2030 projection between two bounds. 8900 lackluster and 12800 outperformance. If it maintains its trajectory some where in the middle it could hit 10,000 by 2029. Its probably better to put a bit more conservative forecast to account for uncertainties.
2030 forecast S&P 10,000
#SnP500
#marketprojection
Ready to respondThe S&P 500 daily chart structure implies a market that's ready to respond to fundamental data that will be revealed this week starting with Wednesday. The bias is still firm moved to the upside. However, if the market expectation is not met with interest rates this market could easily break to the downside.
Day 31 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$24 Near Breakeven“I actually started the day rough — down nearly -400 overnight after an oversized short on that early X7 sell signal. That put me close to my stop-loss limit, so I forced myself to wait for 2–3 confirmations before entering again.
By slowing down and focusing only on high-probability trades, I was able to grind my way back to nearly breakeven — closing the day at just -24.
The key lesson? Overleveraging at night cost me what could have been an easy green day. Discipline around size is just as important as reading the signals.”
News Context:
“On the macro side, Bessent said a 25 basis-point cut is already priced in. No surprises there, but it reinforces why the market isn’t reacting much to Fed talk at this point.”
Key Levels for Tomorrow:
“Here’s what I’ll be watching:
Above 6660 = Stay bullish
Below 6645 = Flip bearish