Going Over CPI ReportGoing through Price Action after the CPI came in hotter than expected. took a bunch of trades mostly breakeven after a few hours. tough day but excellent training day for those that can rewind and replay the day. 02:06by BobbyS8130
2024.02.13 ES st sc AMSI anticipate one more low and reversal for corrective upside retracement above LRS bs level. 8.30 news is to bring another leg down.by Yoo_CoolUpdated 0
OVernight Price Action Review **CPI DAY**going over ES price Action Overnight. talking about setups from yesterday and what we are thinking about today. No Setup No Trade Day. Sizing Down.02:40by BobbyS8130
2/13 Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish Catalyst: The latest CPI results will be released this morning at 8:30 AM (EST). U.S. Economic Projections: Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Forecasts slower economic growth in 2024 with unemployment rising due to tight monetary policy, but expects growth rebound in 2025 as Federal Reserve lowers interest rates. Global Stock Market Movements: Fluctuations observed with the S&P 500 reaching record highs, driven by optimism and big tech performance. Nikkei 225 also sees significant gains. Interest Rates and Inflation: Inflation easing may lead Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts later in the year, fostering hope for resolution against inflation. Investment Trends and Strategies: Trends focus on AI's impact on finance, performance of digital and cryptocurrencies, and outlook for tech and ESG funds. AI in Finance: Vanguard incorporates AI into quant stock funds, highlighting the trend of AI integration into investment strategies. International Developments: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's engagements in the UAE and Qatar aim to deepen bilateral ties. Corporate Bonds and Insurance: U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds expected to offer impressive returns in 2024, while insurers may focus on margins over growth. UK Market and Employment: The UK's unemployment rate falls, indicating a tight job market. Wage growth and unemployment trends remain critical. 📈 Trading Plan for Tuesday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical Supports: 5034, 5018-20, and 4959, indicating pivotal points for maintaining bullish momentum or indicating potential bearish shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key Resistances: 5048-50, 5057, and 5070-76, serving as potential targets for upward movement or reversal points for bearish trends. Trading Strategy: CPI Day Caution: Emphasize capital preservation, acknowledging potential volatility from CPI data release. Bull Case: Focus on holding above 5018-20 for bullish continuation, eyeing targets at 5057 and 5076-80. Bear Case: Watch for breach below 5018-20, indicating a shift towards bearish sentiment and potential deeper sell-off. Tactics: Emphasize disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, with cautious engagement in new positions given expected market volatility from CPI data. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.Shortby spytradingpro0
Combined US Index potential breakdown imminentHere is how I see it... 1. MACD Bearish divergence on both MACD and VolDiv and being extended further, increases probability of a retracement happening; 2. Sequential counts completed... retrace ent could begin within the next 5 candles; 3. Candlestick pattern shows a toppish doji; 4. SG10Y heads up for volatility and retracement incoming, So there... heads up!!! Going down for a good bit.Shortby Auguraltrader1
ESH2024 - CPI - RTH Market StructureCME_MINI:ESH2024 Never try to predict CPI & trade based on that if we have a clear RTH MMXM But hey, CPI can do anything right ? 5002.50 stops on the book to be filled Tomorrow or ThursdayShortby yamixtrr111
Waiting for an excuseThe S&P 500 structure from Monday's movement implies a market waiting for an excuse to take the next move. That excuse could be the CPI report coming out on Tuesday. The bias is still for moved to the upside. It will be interesting to see if this upward momentum can be maintained.01:40by DanGramza3
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today we witnessed a perfect bull trap above the recent new all time highs for US markets. Here is the most important quote from my weekly outlook i posted yesterday: We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. The higher highs maybe higher than i anticipated, yet the thesis was and is perfect and if bears can get follow through the next days, the highs are in for maybe a decade. sp500 Quote from yesterday’s weekly outlook: We could easily see a 200 point drop to the daily 20ema because no one wants to be left holding the bag buying at the ath and the market is overdue for some sort of minor correction. Bears wont get a bigger one until we have traded more sideways at the highs. Biggest question now is the monthly close and if bears manage to close it below 5000, i think its very likely that the highs are in for the year. Targets for the bears next week are 5000, 4950, 4900. Market rallied hard and fell harder afterwards to close below Friday’s close. Perfect bull trap. bull case: Bulls made another ath and have many support lines to buy from. As long as they keep it above 5025, bulls are still in control. They want to trade back up from the lower bull channel trend lines for at least a retest of 5050 or 5066. bear case: Bears stepped aside for the opening rally to a new ath, just to aggressively sell the double top bar 13 at 5065. The sell off was strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move would bring us right back to 5000. They trapped many late bulls and many more will have stops around 5020/5000. So if bears can generate good follow through, we might see more big profit taking. Next target below 5000 is the daily 20ema around 4940. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: long from the open because it was right at the 1h 20ema and bar 9 was a good 15m bull signal bar and short bar 13 (was a perfect double top on the 5m chart)Shortby priceactiontds0
2024.02.12 PMS ES st scI anticipate upside and reversal later. The new high is possible but less likely that upside retracement. Once the price gets into the target for upside retracement I will start to look for signs of reversal to the downside. by Yoo_CoolUpdated 0
A nice day to buy some puts~It's the third time for index hitting the 2/1 line and so a nice chance for the remaining short sellers to show some power!Shortby fibretracementgann2
2024.02.12 ES st scI anticipate some downside move fist. The reversal to the upside later and move to the new daily highs. The first target is 5050.75 Longby Yoo_CoolUpdated 0
2/12 Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral Economic Data Releases: S&P Global Market Intelligence: Anticipated inflation and GDP data across Western economies, with U.S. CPI figures, UK GDP, inflation, labor market statistics, and Japan's GDP data in focus. Australia's Employment Data: Expected to show job growth, albeit at a softer pace. Market Sentiment and Indices: S&P Global Investment Manager Index: To provide insights into risk sentiment influenced by central bank policies, notably the Fed. S&P/TSX Composite Index: Watched closely alongside Canadian dollar and benchmark yield movements. Corporate News: Galp Energia SGPS SA: Warned of lower earnings for the year. Gilead Sciences' Acquisition: Announced a $4.3 billion deal for CymaBay Therapeutics. Market Movements: S&P 500: Indicating a strong bull market since October 2022 with 10 new highs in 16 days. Diamondback Energy's Acquisition: A significant $26 billion deal with Endeavor Energy Resources. Commodity Prices: Silver and Gold Prices: Declined amidst diminished expectations of Fed rate cuts. Global Market Updates: US Equities: Reached a more than two-year peak despite regional bank concerns and China’s market pressures. China's Consumer Prices: Highlighting deflation pressures with the fastest pace decline since the global financial crisis. Financial Services News: Oil Market: Observations on investors dumping oil following a U.S. refinery shutdown. U.S. Treasury Market: Treasury yields dipped as key economic data and Federal Reserve officials' comments are awaited. 📈 Trading Plan for Monday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical supports at 5039-40, 5028, and 5018-20, indicating pivotal points for maintaining bullish momentum. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key resistances at 5047, 5054, and 5065-70, serving as potential targets for upward movement. Trading Strategy: The strategy emphasizes capital preservation, acknowledging the chop range and potential for volatile movements. Bull Case: Focus on maintaining above 5028 for bullish market continuation. Bear Case: Watch for breach below 5028, indicating potential shift towards bearish sentiment. Tactics: Emphasize disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, with cautious engagement in new positions given the expected market chop. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.by spytradingpro2
ES Weekly Levels(Feb12-16)Another strong week for the market as both NQ and ES hit new all-time highs, with ES closing above the psychological 5000 level. Mega-cap tech, along with small caps (Russell 2000 gained 2.6%), led the way. BTC also rallied, affirming the market's risk-on bias. The market, now highly extended, awaits this week's CPI report, small cap earnings & PPI data for continued bullish momentum. SUMMARY ES made another ATH with a weekly gain of 1.39% after trading in a range of 111 pts. ES closed above key psychological level of 5000. Expect bullish continuaton above 5000. 1st upside target is the MTF 1.618 Fib X (5117) If price drops back below 5000 a test of the 9 ema is likely. If price drops below the 9 ema a move back to the 55 ema at 4800 is possible. Small caps showed strength last week finishing up 2.6% Strength in BTC points to risk on sentiment. Earnings cont' with reports from growth names ABNB, DDOG, HOOD, LYFT, SHOP, AMAT, COIN, DKNG, ROKU, TTD as well as KO, DE, KHC & HAS Risk of outsized move in either direction is high. Econ data this week includes CPI on Tues, Retail Sales on Thurs & PPI on Fri Elevated terrorist/war risk due to escalaton of conflicts in the Middle East. RSI 67.23 VIX at 13.84 | 10 year 4.02% by WadeYendall2
ES - Neutral - 2nd Week FebruaryThere is currently no symmetry between indices. Order flow & market structure is clearly bullish, positively correlating with the dollar. by imjesstwoone1
2/12 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 5,0342/12 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 5,034 Targets 5,065 5,089 5,127 Targets 4,997 4,975 4,954 Now trading at 5,043 Alerts You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close): Weekly opening TBD Weekly pivot at 5,034 Each weekly target. Side notes ES is currently OTFU in (D-W-M). 11:36by dhjesus2