Flag pole projectionThe bull flag is a type of Wyckoff accumulation schematic. If it turns out true, I'd expect a price of 5220 Longby simplestupid0
ES updateMFI is oversold but RSI isn't yet. Meanwhile RTY is overbought on both RSI and MFI. Probably just another whipsaw day tomorrow as everyone is waiting for PCE numbers. I might do a straddle on something that's close to an options break point with cheap premiums and small spread, like maybe XLF. But that's tomorrow, lol. I noticed yesterday that oil is climbing again, if it breaks out, then we'll see rebound inflation. The commodity traders should stick to pumping shitcoin, lol. It's the only so called commodity that doesn't directly cause inflation. I think that's why the traders are all jumping on it. the Fed won't make rate decisions based on fantasy trading.by hungry_hippoUpdated 227
ES1 is bearish IMO 🐻the B wave is about to get really bearish in my opinion. 5230 is the top inshallah. 🗻 tell me what do you think in commentsShortby koubybrait360
2/27 Tuesday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral Stock Market Outlook for February 2024 The stock market's outlook leans toward neutral for February 2024. While the powerful year-end rally of 2023 created optimism, concerns linger that positive news has been priced in. This suggests potential vulnerability to negative news or persistent inflation throughout 2024. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy The Federal Reserve ended its tightening cycle in December 2023, with expectations for significant rate cuts in 2024. Market concerns arise over the timing and scale of those reductions: should they occur primarily due to recession risks, or might the Fed hold off on the depth of cuts if the economy and inflation remain resilient? US Economic Outlook The U.S. economy in 2024 appears positioned for a potentially record-breaking late-cycle expansion. Inflation has cooled from 2023 highs, and corporate profits have stabilized. Challenges stemming from a slow Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions remain. Investment Banks' 2024 Outlooks Leading investment banks like Deutsche Bank, UBS, Apollo, and others offer varying perspectives on 2024. Their outlooks range from cautious optimism to focused identification of tactical opportunities within the equity markets. Asset Markets and Valuations Markets may become susceptible to adverse news or economic developments, as much good news may already be baked into current asset prices. Corporate Earnings and Market Performance Stocks have hit recent highs, fueled partly by excitement around the potential of AI to reshape the U.S. economy. Companies within the tech sector, such as Salesforce, HP, Workday, and Zoom, are among those releasing their latest earnings reports. Global Market Overview Globally, bonds underperformed equities early in the year as major central banks hinted at a more measured pace of interest rate cuts. The Fed Chair Jay Powell suggested a March cut was unlikely, and the UK's surprise inflation increase impacted UK gilts. News Highlights Retail Sector and Cryptocurrency: Macy's is reducing its store count due to decreased sales, while Bitcoin values have soared above $57,000 in a resurgence of cryptocurrency interest. Corporate Developments: SunPower's CEO has stepped down amidst questions about the company's continued viability due to a credit agreement breach. Trading Plan for Tuesday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5080-82 (major), 5074-76, 5066 (major), 5058, 5051, 5046 (major), 5040, 5031 (major), 5028, 5018, 5011-13 (major), 5004, 4998 (major), 4993, 4983 (major), 4965, 4951-56 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5093, 5102, 5108 (major), 5112 (major), 5121-23, 5134, 5143-46 (major), 5152, 5165 (major), 5170, 5178-81 (major), 5188, 5199, 5211, 5224 (major), 5229 (major), 5248 (major), 5257, 5270 (major), 5280 (major). Trading Strategy: Maintain Cautious Approach: After the strong rally, the market is in an expected cooldown phase. Exercise caution and seek clear technical signals for trades. Focus on Support and Resistance: Target key support and resistance levels for potential long or short entry points, with particular attention to the critical 5046 level. Disciplined Trading: Employ disciplined trading strategies, including planned profit-taking and stop-loss orders, especially when testing primary support and resistance zones to navigate potential market swings. Disclaimer: It's important to remember that this analysis serves an educational purpose and shouldn't be taken as financial advice. Always seek professional financial advice before making investment or trading decisions.by spytradingpro2
02/27 Pre market planThe market has rejected the supply zone perfectly in the pre market, we saw a lot of selling yesterday, lets see if the market wants to do the same today. We have the 30 minute supply zone at 5091 5088 that ois currently working. then we have demand zone that act as support at 5074 that if the price holds there we could see a reverse. And we have 5104 where the sellers appeared yesterday. by SrSovi0
S&P Explosion LikelyConfluences: 1. Gold is nicely trending up. 2. Fed insinuated rate hikes likely over. Dollar broke daily trendline. 3. S&P forming a Wykcoff reaccumulation schematic on H1.Longby simplestupid0
Weekly AnalysisDetailed Weekly Analysis For TVC:DXY CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! FX:GBPUSD FX:EURUSD 14:32by Sammy-Fx0
Selling the ralliesIn the last 3 S&P 500 sessions sellers enter the market at the highs. The expectation would be a down move on Tuesday but not a large range.01:42by DanGramza3
Buy March ES at 4972.00 stop at 4923.00, tgt is openLooking for a pullback in current rally with a stop at 4923.00Longby Cannon-Trading0
EWT 4th wave completeWe had a 4th wave down starting Friday at the open, it unfolded beautifully, counter trend, complex and corrective. This wave has everyone thinking we are going into a big selloff. 4th waves always surprise everyone.Longby dryanhawley111
SP500**SP500:** The price made a new high of 5119.75. The bullish trend is expected to continue.Longby simaoxceps0
ESES Possibly forming a head and shoulder pattern. Bearish depending on volume and news. GDP on Wednesday. Shortby oneNtonio0
2/26 Monday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish 📈 Trading Plan for Monday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5098, 5093 (major), 5079, 5073, 5066 (major), 5058, 5046-48 (major), 5040, 5028-32 (major), 5018 (major), 5013, 5003-05 (major), 4998, 4988 (major), 4984, 4976 (major), 4971, 4965 (major), 4956 (major), 4947-50 (major), 4942, 4934 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5110 (major), 5118-20, 5136, 5143 (major), 5150, 5160-63 (major), 5171, 5178 (major), 5183, 5194, 5213, 5219-22 (major), 5228, 5237, 5250, 5260, 5265-70 (major). Trading Strategy: Maintain Cautious Bullish Bias: The market leans bullish. Focus on reclaiming key resistances for potential recovery and further bullish momentum. Disciplined Approach: Exercise disciplined and methodical trading principles with well-defined entry and exit points within the established support and resistance zones. Remain vigilant as CPI releases and earnings announcements could lead to market adjustments. Tactical Insights: Prioritize planned profit-taking and stop-loss orders, especially when reclaiming important support and resistance zones. This allows you to manage market volatility and secure gains. News Brief for Today Stock Market Outlook for February 2024 The stock market's outlook leans toward bullish for February 2024. January's bullish momentum into new highs was fueled by healthy economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate adjustments. While market corrections are possible if earnings growth fails to meet lofty 2024/2025 expectations, the current climate remains favorable. Federal Reserve's Influence The Federal Reserve continues to have significant influence on the market. The FedWatch tool shows a 53% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March, highlighting the Fed's ability to shape expectations and broadly impact the economy. Earnings Reports Insights February earnings releases from tech, oil, and biotech titans like Apple, Amazon, and Exxon Mobil will provide essential insights into the strength of key sectors within the economy. Economic Data Releases Economic releases like the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey and the Fed's R-star estimate are important to consider as they are indicators of consumer confidence and interest rate perspectives. HSBC's Financial Performance HSBC's profit surge amidst elevated interest rates, despite headwinds from China's economic slowdown and a substantial charge associated with its Bank of Communications stake, highlights the multifaceted nature of global banking results and the interplay with macroeconomic forces. Interest Rate Expectations Market speculation centers around the possibility of nearly 5 rate cuts by the end of 2024. Investor sentiment is heavily influenced by anticipated Fed actions, making adjustments to these expectations a risk factor for both equity and fixed income markets. Economic Growth and Inflation The U.S.'s stronger-than-expected GDP growth and inflation cooling down present a cautiously optimistic economic picture; however, the Federal Reserve policy's full impact remains to be determined. Global Economic Conditions Lingering worries about inflation and potentially harmful economic news create a shadow over current asset prices, despite the recent rally. The global economic landscape, impacted by factors such as China's challenges and geopolitical tensions, adds to the complexities of market projections. Nvidia's Booming Stock and High Pay: Nvidia's success turns it into a top Silicon Valley employer, attracting top talent with excellent compensation packages. Treasury Markets Losing Shock Absorber: Changes in the U.S. Treasury market could impact liquidity and stability. Li Auto's Sales Forecast: Despite reporting a surge in quarterly results, Li Auto, a Chinese electric vehicle maker, predicts softer sales. U.K. Housebuilders Under Investigation: Potential information sharing practices among U.K. housebuilders are under the scrutiny of the country's competition watchdog, which could have implications for the housing sector. Warren Buffett and the Japanese Market Rally: Berkshire Hathaway was invested during the Japanese stock market rally, with possible effects for investors and the market as a whole. Fed's Inflation Gauge and Rate Cuts: Expectations are rising for the Federal Reserve's inflation gauge, and business economists surveyed by NABE anticipate rate cuts to start in June. TSMC Opens First Plant in Japan: The opening of TSMC's first Japanese plant marks a major development within the semiconductor industry. India's Navi Mumbai Airport Challenges: Adani Airport Holdings is struggling to convince major airlines to switch operations from Mumbai to the new Navi Mumbai airport. Asset Monetization in India: In FY25, the Indian government's asset monetization program is projected to hit record highs, with major contributions from railways and other sectors. S&P/TSX Composite Index Performance: The S&P/TSX composite index closed positively on Friday, representing a snapshot of the current state of the Canadian stock market. U.S. Economic Outlook: Economists are revising their outlook on the U.S. economy in 2024, forecasting higher growth, diminishing inflation, and healthy job creation, straying from previous recession concerns. Global Economic Data Releases: Upcoming global manufacturing PMI data, U.S. core PCE, and GDP reports from various nations will offer a comprehensive understanding of the current state of the global economy. Disclaimer: It's important to remember that this analysis serves an educational purpose and shouldn't be taken as financial advice. Always seek professional financial advice before making investment or trading decisions.by spytradingpro1
02/ 26 Pre market planGood morning happy start of the week, i wish you a very successful week, lets make some money. Today i will not be trading, i have to work at 11 so maybe the open idk lets see. Something that its really important, when i post this pre market its just levels of interest, many times the market do something different or create new levels during the day, but sometimes the market use the levels of the pre market plan, its really important be open mind, look the bigger picture and im not talking about go to the 1 week frame, its just get some context (its the market doing higher highs, its doing higher lows, are we on a range, this level here its for buyers or sellers) My name its rodrigo i do this to practice and stay discipline, im trying to pass a funded challenge im doing pretty well but im not a guy with a lotttt experience in the market but i already went through some losses. LETS GO WITH THE PLAN. Market its currently moving in a range, remember in range you have to play the boarder of the range never the middle you are going to get screw. Range between 5108 and 5090, there is a demand zone 5093 5090. I will try to be flexible for expample, if we go to 5108 and we see some selling (trapped buyers) i take a short, if we go to the demand and see buying (trapped buyers) i take long, just go with the flow. I would like some feedback of this that i write, i would really appreciate it. by SrSovi0
strong rise to 5200It also appears to me from the movement that there will be a strong rise to 5200 You must be aware that the peaks are dangerous It may happen other than what we expect, because the financial markets are not friendly to anyoneLongby DaferAliUpdated 0
ES Weekly Levels (Feb26-Mar1)NQ & ES finished the week green yet again after testing the low of the recent range early in the the shortened trading week for US markets. The NQ closed 1% off its ATH high while the ES finished 0.56% off its ATH. The late week recovery was fueled by another strong earning report from NVDA although big tech showed signs of weakness to closed out the week with most of the Mag 7 closing red on Friday as money rotated back into XLP, XLV & XLB. Earnings season will wind down this week with reports fom some big retailers, Canadian banks & small cap growth names. PCE data is on tap for Thursday and the Fed heads will continue their speaking tour. SUMMARY ES had a weekly gain of 1.60% after trading in a wide range of 160 pts. ES closed firmly above the 2021 high T1 = 1.618 Fib X (5147) T2 = 1.13 Fib X (5231) S1 = 2021 High (5029) S2 = 21 ema (4993) Uptrend remains intact above the upward trendline. Sector rotation last week from XLK, XLC & XLY to XLP, XLB & XLV. Durable Goods & Consumer Confidence on Tues. PCE & Consumer Spending Thru. Manufacturing PMI on Friday. Earnings this week include reports from U, ZM, LOW, M, MARA, CRM, SNOW, CELH, BBY & Canadian banks. Elevated terrorist/war risk due to escalaton of conflicts in the Middle East. RSI 66.84 VIX at 13.74 | 10 year 4.25% by WadeYendall4
Into The Futures | Week Ahead For Feb 25, 2024In my first post in a minute, this idea offers a concise analysis of key futures stock indices and treasury futures for the upcoming week. I look at popular indices like MES, MNW, and MYM, alongside the 10-year and 30-year treasury futures (ZN & ZB). By examining multiple timeframes, the current prices suggest a probable modest decline in stock indices. Remember to always #thinkriskfirst as you navigate the week ahead. Short11:16by RodCasilli10
202409 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. This week was another very strong one for the bulls. Having these kind of climaxes at the top after such a long ongoing trend is often the exhaustive end of it. But all that is just mumbling until bears show up. Bulls continue to pump this higher and that’s just what’s happening right now. All targets have been met and market keeps going because it keeps working. Bears need to generate more selling pressure and trap bulls who bought too high but right now they still can just every dip and make money. sp500 Quote from last week: Last week i drew a two legged (ABC) correction when we traded at 5042 and it was deeper and then higher than anticipated but other than that, a pretty perfect forecast so far. Meaning i still think we are in the second leg down and it will probably hit at least the daily 20ema at around 4970. Low of the week was 4960. That’s is as perfect of a weekly outlook as it get’s. Was i absolutely flabbergasted by the 160 point gain after that? You bet. Can you say i was wrong in my outlook last week? I also wrote short term: down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case For dax my outlook was completely trash but sp500 i nailed it. Let’s view ahead. bull case: Same for dax, hard to come up with higher targets. Most reasonable thing here would be to look for pullbacks and if they are bought, hop along. BTFD has not stopped working for a long time, even though they got a bit bigger, it was not enough so far. I draw something into the chart in case of measured moves but given so many trend lines we are at and the extreme of this move, i can’t see it but market has the ability to go way way beyond what’s reasonable (looking at you NVIDIA. couple more up days and that stock might be the first 10 trillion $ company and you be sure, you will find humans who will go in front of a camera and say why this stock is reasonably priced based on fundamentals, just like they did in 2000). bear case: Bears need way more to stop the BTFD mania. The market is overbought and everyone knows it, that does not help in structuring good short trades, since this buying could continue. Bears need prices below 4931 to make lower lows, that is pretty far away. Best they can probably get is a trading range at the highs. Their first target is the daily 20ema around 5000 and i expect bulls to buy there again. outlook last week: “down then sideways - probably to below 5000 first and then market decides. given lower targets in the bear case” → Last Sunday we traded 5014 and now we are at 5101. Market hit my target +10 points. That was +44 if you will. short term: sideways is the best bears can hope for. bulls could also just moon this further. if you read this and think: “so this jack is saying it can go up or down?!” yes bro and now come’s the important distinction: i tell you i’m neutral here and wait for the market to show me further price action and evaluate with hopefully a higher certainty the next profitable trade. right now at 5101 is the absolute worst place to enter a trade. tl;dr: wait for more price action. i lean bearish but bears have done nothing late Friday so i wait. medium-long term: same as dax. my thesis had 5100 as invalidation and now i wait for the monthly close firstby priceactiontds0
Where will we go?Are we in a trap region? The month is ending, but the problems are just beginning! Based on the latest analysis, we may indeed be in a trap region. And its long-term objective was achieved in full (1,618 FIB). And gold has not yet lost its 2K level. What a thing, right? If everything is fine, why isn't our "rich" fiat's store of value giving way? I just think that we should keep our eyes open, because things are going too easy, and my motto for a safe victory is: "There is no such thing as a free lunch, if you ate it, someone will have to pay the bill." Do your analysis and good business. Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss. See other graphical analyzes below.by MacD_Bollinger6
Short-term ES tradeThis chart assumes we are in the beginning stages of a Minor 2, and ultimately headed to new highs in the middle term, but not before completing a 3 wave, ((a))((b))((c)) correction to the 4000 region. I have a Micro ((A))((B)) in the books, and that we are working on the ((C)) wave, which may conclude around 4893, before a subminuette b wave retrace back to current levels. Best, Cuz.Shortby CuzDeluxUpdated 1
How to trade correlations with the SP500? ES/SP500/US100 Hello Traders, Welcome back to another market breakdown. Today, I've got an exciting video for you as I dive into the current state of the S&P 500 and explore various strategies based on different market scenarios. Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this video will help you better understand how to navigate the dynamic world of the stock market. Trade safely, Trader Leo 15:17by Leo-btm221
ES1! morning updateIt looks like ES1! is working on a third impulse wave up from October 2023 low. Bullish scenario (green) would have this third wave up complete a full impulse wave off low of 4173.25. Bearish scenario (red) would have this third impulse up be the second impulse of a C wave, with an additional impulse needed to complete the C.by discobiscuit1
ES - Weekly War With Buyers & SellersCME_MINI:ES1! is stuck between a rock and a hard place! From a macro perspective, we have been on a bullish uptrend since the 27th Oct 2023 with daily HH and HL's being formed. Every now and again, a minor retracement is necessary to accumulate more positions to continue to the upside. This week, we have witnessed sell stops being raided however the overall bullish structure is still in full swing, as long as 4936.50 13th Feb bullish engulfing lows is not traded to and through. I do believe we are in for a short term retracement with the likelihood of price action continuing lower a strong possibility, especially with the volatility expected this week. 4998 discount array is an area in price I expect CME_MINI:ES1! to sweep with the possibility of 4983.50 and 4976 attacked by shorts. With that being said, I can also account for the fact that the arrays mentioned could be the very springboard for smart money to accumulate longs and reprice above all time highs, currently sitting at 5066.50. This is the risk to my weekly bearish bias. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN Short13:14by LegendSinceUpdated 0