Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish
📈 Trading Plan for Monday
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5098, 5093 (major), 5079, 5073, 5066 (major), 5058, 5046-48 (major), 5040, 5028-32 (major), 5018 (major), 5013, 5003-05 (major), 4998, 4988 (major), 4984, 4976 (major), 4971, 4965 (major), 4956 (major), 4947-50 (major), 4942, 4934 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5110 (major), 5118-20, 5136, 5143 (major), 5150, 5160-63 (major), 5171, 5178 (major), 5183, 5194, 5213, 5219-22 (major), 5228, 5237, 5250, 5260, 5265-70 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Maintain Cautious Bullish Bias: The market leans bullish. Focus on reclaiming key resistances for potential recovery and further bullish momentum.
Disciplined Approach: Exercise disciplined and methodical trading principles with well-defined entry and exit points within the established support and resistance zones. Remain vigilant as CPI releases and earnings announcements could lead to market adjustments.
Tactical Insights: Prioritize planned profit-taking and stop-loss orders, especially when reclaiming important support and resistance zones. This allows you to manage market volatility and secure gains.
News Brief for Today
Stock Market Outlook for February 2024
The stock market's outlook leans toward bullish for February 2024. January's bullish momentum into new highs was fueled by healthy economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate adjustments. While market corrections are possible if earnings growth fails to meet lofty 2024/2025 expectations, the current climate remains favorable.
Federal Reserve's Influence
The Federal Reserve continues to have significant influence on the market. The FedWatch tool shows a 53% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March, highlighting the Fed's ability to shape expectations and broadly impact the economy.
Earnings Reports Insights
February earnings releases from tech, oil, and biotech titans like Apple, Amazon, and Exxon Mobil will provide essential insights into the strength of key sectors within the economy.
Economic Data Releases
Economic releases like the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey and the Fed's R-star estimate are important to consider as they are indicators of consumer confidence and interest rate perspectives.
HSBC's Financial Performance
HSBC's profit surge amidst elevated interest rates, despite headwinds from China's economic slowdown and a substantial charge associated with its Bank of Communications stake, highlights the multifaceted nature of global banking results and the interplay with macroeconomic forces.
Interest Rate Expectations
Market speculation centers around the possibility of nearly 5 rate cuts by the end of 2024. Investor sentiment is heavily influenced by anticipated Fed actions, making adjustments to these expectations a risk factor for both equity and fixed income markets.
Economic Growth and Inflation
The U.S.'s stronger-than-expected GDP growth and inflation cooling down present a cautiously optimistic economic picture; however, the Federal Reserve policy's full impact remains to be determined.
Global Economic Conditions
Lingering worries about inflation and potentially harmful economic news create a shadow over current asset prices, despite the recent rally. The global economic landscape, impacted by factors such as China's challenges and geopolitical tensions, adds to the complexities of market projections.
Nvidia's Booming Stock and High Pay: Nvidia's success turns it into a top Silicon Valley employer, attracting top talent with excellent compensation packages.
Treasury Markets Losing Shock Absorber: Changes in the U.S. Treasury market could impact liquidity and stability.
Li Auto's Sales Forecast: Despite reporting a surge in quarterly results, Li Auto, a Chinese electric vehicle maker, predicts softer sales.
U.K. Housebuilders Under Investigation: Potential information sharing practices among U.K. housebuilders are under the scrutiny of the country's competition watchdog, which could have implications for the housing sector.
Warren Buffett and the Japanese Market Rally: Berkshire Hathaway was invested during the Japanese stock market rally, with possible effects for investors and the market as a whole.
Fed's Inflation Gauge and Rate Cuts: Expectations are rising for the Federal Reserve's inflation gauge, and business economists surveyed by NABE anticipate rate cuts to start in June.
TSMC Opens First Plant in Japan: The opening of TSMC's first Japanese plant marks a major development within the semiconductor industry.
India's Navi Mumbai Airport Challenges: Adani Airport Holdings is struggling to convince major airlines to switch operations from Mumbai to the new Navi Mumbai airport.
Asset Monetization in India: In FY25, the Indian government's asset monetization program is projected to hit record highs, with major contributions from railways and other sectors.
S&P/TSX Composite Index Performance: The S&P/TSX composite index closed positively on Friday, representing a snapshot of the current state of the Canadian stock market.
U.S. Economic Outlook: Economists are revising their outlook on the U.S. economy in 2024, forecasting higher growth, diminishing inflation, and healthy job creation, straying from previous recession concerns.
Global Economic Data Releases: Upcoming global manufacturing PMI data, U.S. core PCE, and GDP reports from various nations will offer a comprehensive understanding of the current state of the global economy.
Disclaimer: It's important to remember that this analysis serves an educational purpose and shouldn't be taken as financial advice. Always seek professional financial advice before making investment or trading decisions.
📈 Trading Plan for Monday
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5098, 5093 (major), 5079, 5073, 5066 (major), 5058, 5046-48 (major), 5040, 5028-32 (major), 5018 (major), 5013, 5003-05 (major), 4998, 4988 (major), 4984, 4976 (major), 4971, 4965 (major), 4956 (major), 4947-50 (major), 4942, 4934 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5110 (major), 5118-20, 5136, 5143 (major), 5150, 5160-63 (major), 5171, 5178 (major), 5183, 5194, 5213, 5219-22 (major), 5228, 5237, 5250, 5260, 5265-70 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Maintain Cautious Bullish Bias: The market leans bullish. Focus on reclaiming key resistances for potential recovery and further bullish momentum.
Disciplined Approach: Exercise disciplined and methodical trading principles with well-defined entry and exit points within the established support and resistance zones. Remain vigilant as CPI releases and earnings announcements could lead to market adjustments.
Tactical Insights: Prioritize planned profit-taking and stop-loss orders, especially when reclaiming important support and resistance zones. This allows you to manage market volatility and secure gains.
News Brief for Today
Stock Market Outlook for February 2024
The stock market's outlook leans toward bullish for February 2024. January's bullish momentum into new highs was fueled by healthy economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate adjustments. While market corrections are possible if earnings growth fails to meet lofty 2024/2025 expectations, the current climate remains favorable.
Federal Reserve's Influence
The Federal Reserve continues to have significant influence on the market. The FedWatch tool shows a 53% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in March, highlighting the Fed's ability to shape expectations and broadly impact the economy.
Earnings Reports Insights
February earnings releases from tech, oil, and biotech titans like Apple, Amazon, and Exxon Mobil will provide essential insights into the strength of key sectors within the economy.
Economic Data Releases
Economic releases like the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey and the Fed's R-star estimate are important to consider as they are indicators of consumer confidence and interest rate perspectives.
HSBC's Financial Performance
HSBC's profit surge amidst elevated interest rates, despite headwinds from China's economic slowdown and a substantial charge associated with its Bank of Communications stake, highlights the multifaceted nature of global banking results and the interplay with macroeconomic forces.
Interest Rate Expectations
Market speculation centers around the possibility of nearly 5 rate cuts by the end of 2024. Investor sentiment is heavily influenced by anticipated Fed actions, making adjustments to these expectations a risk factor for both equity and fixed income markets.
Economic Growth and Inflation
The U.S.'s stronger-than-expected GDP growth and inflation cooling down present a cautiously optimistic economic picture; however, the Federal Reserve policy's full impact remains to be determined.
Global Economic Conditions
Lingering worries about inflation and potentially harmful economic news create a shadow over current asset prices, despite the recent rally. The global economic landscape, impacted by factors such as China's challenges and geopolitical tensions, adds to the complexities of market projections.
Nvidia's Booming Stock and High Pay: Nvidia's success turns it into a top Silicon Valley employer, attracting top talent with excellent compensation packages.
Treasury Markets Losing Shock Absorber: Changes in the U.S. Treasury market could impact liquidity and stability.
Li Auto's Sales Forecast: Despite reporting a surge in quarterly results, Li Auto, a Chinese electric vehicle maker, predicts softer sales.
U.K. Housebuilders Under Investigation: Potential information sharing practices among U.K. housebuilders are under the scrutiny of the country's competition watchdog, which could have implications for the housing sector.
Warren Buffett and the Japanese Market Rally: Berkshire Hathaway was invested during the Japanese stock market rally, with possible effects for investors and the market as a whole.
Fed's Inflation Gauge and Rate Cuts: Expectations are rising for the Federal Reserve's inflation gauge, and business economists surveyed by NABE anticipate rate cuts to start in June.
TSMC Opens First Plant in Japan: The opening of TSMC's first Japanese plant marks a major development within the semiconductor industry.
India's Navi Mumbai Airport Challenges: Adani Airport Holdings is struggling to convince major airlines to switch operations from Mumbai to the new Navi Mumbai airport.
Asset Monetization in India: In FY25, the Indian government's asset monetization program is projected to hit record highs, with major contributions from railways and other sectors.
S&P/TSX Composite Index Performance: The S&P/TSX composite index closed positively on Friday, representing a snapshot of the current state of the Canadian stock market.
U.S. Economic Outlook: Economists are revising their outlook on the U.S. economy in 2024, forecasting higher growth, diminishing inflation, and healthy job creation, straying from previous recession concerns.
Global Economic Data Releases: Upcoming global manufacturing PMI data, U.S. core PCE, and GDP reports from various nations will offer a comprehensive understanding of the current state of the global economy.
Disclaimer: It's important to remember that this analysis serves an educational purpose and shouldn't be taken as financial advice. Always seek professional financial advice before making investment or trading decisions.
