ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.07 - 04.12Last Week :
Last week to start the week we attempted the move under VAL but only had enough selling to break under and come back in which gave us another rotation higher back towards VAH. We needed more supply or stronger sell Volume to come in to attempt a move at the lower Edge. We knew going into the week that we had Supply/Sellers at/over VAH and buyers wouldn't want be paying prices over Value. Move Wednesday RTH hold over VAL and Thursday Globex trapped more buyers on the way to VAH and when buyers ran out everyone rushed for the doors which gave us a nice flush through VAL and once we took out the Support there more volume came in to extend towards the Edge. We did break the Edge and closed under but no stronger sell volume came in overnight and once RTH opened we saw the Edge hold and another rotation from Edge back to VAL. Attempted a push inside Value but this time around we saw sellers Inside Value under the Mean.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week as many will expect either a continued grind higher after failed break down out of the range or more selling to come in and take us back to the Edge and possibly under. Yes either of these scenarios could happen but we have to be careful because it could be a slow start to the week with no market moving data Monday/Tuesday then Fed Minutes Wednesday and bigger data dropping Thursday. So far the structure is telling us that we have buyers under Value and inside/under HTF Edge which is an important area for any prices under and also telling us that we have trapped more supply inside Value/Mean area of the Range which might not have all sold out yet. To me it means that its very possible to go back to tighter ranges again as price might want to stay around this VAL Over/Under area without making any big moves away from it just yet.
We did close Friday inside 5249.75 - 5295.50 range which is what we will need to focus on now until we move out of it and accept in different range. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for this range but if buyers are trying to get product under value we could be seeing extensions under but watch out for price to keep wanting to come back towards or over it if we do. Extensions away from VAL into the Value could also be met with Supply and might make price keep coming back inside VAL area. It's too early and tricky to really call it right now but last week made big moves and wont be surprised to see smaller balances this week to clean up and start getting ready for next moves which can take time. If this will be the case we will have to see if Mid/End of week will give us clear direction out of this area or if we will continue trading around this Current Range until next week.
To attempt moves higher towards VAH we would need to hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25
To attempt moves under VAL towards Edge and under we would need to accept under 5249.75 - 44.75 and get through 5234.25 - 30.25 - 27.50 areas
Levels to Watch :
Current Range Levels -
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 // Resistance 5279.25 - 75.25
5264.75 - 60.75 Could act as an intrarange mean that could draw the price towards it.
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
If we accept under Key Support we will look at 5249.75 - 5204 - 5199.75 Range
Levels inside 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75
If we hold VAL and enough buying comes in go take us back to VAH we again need to be careful of sellers over 90s but if anything levels above would be
5306.50 - 10.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 and Key Resistance 5341 - 36