ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.07 - 04.12
Last Week :
Last week to start the week we attempted the move under VAL but only had enough selling to break under and come back in which gave us another rotation higher back towards VAH. We needed more supply or stronger sell Volume to come in to attempt a move at the lower Edge. We knew going into the week that we had Supply/Sellers at/over VAH and buyers wouldn't want be paying prices over Value. Move Wednesday RTH hold over VAL and Thursday Globex trapped more buyers on the way to VAH and when buyers ran out everyone rushed for the doors which gave us a nice flush through VAL and once we took out the Support there more volume came in to extend towards the Edge. We did break the Edge and closed under but no stronger sell volume came in overnight and once RTH opened we saw the Edge hold and another rotation from Edge back to VAL. Attempted a push inside Value but this time around we saw sellers Inside Value under the Mean.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week as many will expect either a continued grind higher after failed break down out of the range or more selling to come in and take us back to the Edge and possibly under. Yes either of these scenarios could happen but we have to be careful because it could be a slow start to the week with no market moving data Monday/Tuesday then Fed Minutes Wednesday and bigger data dropping Thursday. So far the structure is telling us that we have buyers under Value and inside/under HTF Edge which is an important area for any prices under and also telling us that we have trapped more supply inside Value/Mean area of the Range which might not have all sold out yet. To me it means that its very possible to go back to tighter ranges again as price might want to stay around this VAL Over/Under area without making any big moves away from it just yet.
We did close Friday inside 5249.75 - 5295.50 range which is what we will need to focus on now until we move out of it and accept in different range. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for this range but if buyers are trying to get product under value we could be seeing extensions under but watch out for price to keep wanting to come back towards or over it if we do. Extensions away from VAL into the Value could also be met with Supply and might make price keep coming back inside VAL area. It's too early and tricky to really call it right now but last week made big moves and wont be surprised to see smaller balances this week to clean up and start getting ready for next moves which can take time. If this will be the case we will have to see if Mid/End of week will give us clear direction out of this area or if we will continue trading around this Current Range until next week.
To attempt moves higher towards VAH we would need to hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25
To attempt moves under VAL towards Edge and under we would need to accept under 5249.75 - 44.75 and get through 5234.25 - 30.25 - 27.50 areas
Levels to Watch :
Current Range Levels -
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 // Resistance 5279.25 - 75.25
5264.75 - 60.75 Could act as an intrarange mean that could draw the price towards it.
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
If we accept under Key Support we will look at 5249.75 - 5204 - 5199.75 Range
Levels inside 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75
If we hold VAL and enough buying comes in go take us back to VAH we again need to be careful of sellers over 90s but if anything levels above would be
5306.50 - 10.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 and Key Resistance 5341 - 36
Last week to start the week we attempted the move under VAL but only had enough selling to break under and come back in which gave us another rotation higher back towards VAH. We needed more supply or stronger sell Volume to come in to attempt a move at the lower Edge. We knew going into the week that we had Supply/Sellers at/over VAH and buyers wouldn't want be paying prices over Value. Move Wednesday RTH hold over VAL and Thursday Globex trapped more buyers on the way to VAH and when buyers ran out everyone rushed for the doors which gave us a nice flush through VAL and once we took out the Support there more volume came in to extend towards the Edge. We did break the Edge and closed under but no stronger sell volume came in overnight and once RTH opened we saw the Edge hold and another rotation from Edge back to VAL. Attempted a push inside Value but this time around we saw sellers Inside Value under the Mean.
This Week :
This might be a tricky week as many will expect either a continued grind higher after failed break down out of the range or more selling to come in and take us back to the Edge and possibly under. Yes either of these scenarios could happen but we have to be careful because it could be a slow start to the week with no market moving data Monday/Tuesday then Fed Minutes Wednesday and bigger data dropping Thursday. So far the structure is telling us that we have buyers under Value and inside/under HTF Edge which is an important area for any prices under and also telling us that we have trapped more supply inside Value/Mean area of the Range which might not have all sold out yet. To me it means that its very possible to go back to tighter ranges again as price might want to stay around this VAL Over/Under area without making any big moves away from it just yet.
We did close Friday inside 5249.75 - 5295.50 range which is what we will need to focus on now until we move out of it and accept in different range. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for this range but if buyers are trying to get product under value we could be seeing extensions under but watch out for price to keep wanting to come back towards or over it if we do. Extensions away from VAL into the Value could also be met with Supply and might make price keep coming back inside VAL area. It's too early and tricky to really call it right now but last week made big moves and wont be surprised to see smaller balances this week to clean up and start getting ready for next moves which can take time. If this will be the case we will have to see if Mid/End of week will give us clear direction out of this area or if we will continue trading around this Current Range until next week.
To attempt moves higher towards VAH we would need to hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25
To attempt moves under VAL towards Edge and under we would need to accept under 5249.75 - 44.75 and get through 5234.25 - 30.25 - 27.50 areas
Levels to Watch :
Current Range Levels -
Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 // Resistance 5279.25 - 75.25
5264.75 - 60.75 Could act as an intrarange mean that could draw the price towards it.
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
If we accept under Key Support we will look at 5249.75 - 5204 - 5199.75 Range
Levels inside 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75
Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75
If we hold VAL and enough buying comes in go take us back to VAH we again need to be careful of sellers over 90s but if anything levels above would be
5306.50 - 10.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 and Key Resistance 5341 - 36
Comment:
So far market opened pushed into Value and selling came in, we broke back under VAL and IF we get through Key Support here we could continue leaking down towards the Edge and depending if we find buying in lower range to hold us in, we do have poor low from Thursdays flush which we could target as long as we are holding under VAL and we have supply to keep pushing us lower. If that will be the case we could possibly see a move towards lower ranges VAH as potential target. IF we can't hold under and get continuation then will look to stay within current VAL areas
Comment:
Under the Edge and under 5204.25 - 5199.75 that puts us in lower range which is 5204.25 - 5154.25. We have now broke through the Edge and tested lower HTF Ranges VAH and finding buying inside it but careful looking for big bounces today like we had last few days/weeks as we now have more supply trapped above the Edge and if we hold under 5204.25 - 5199.75 then we trade this range and our levels are 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.25 and Key Support down at 5159.25 - 54.25. IF we stay under 04.25 - 99.75 that could bring in more weakness to test the lower levels again at some point at least down towards 74-70 area and maybe peek under, depending what we do on minutes. IF this do get crazy and we break current Key Support we will look for continuation through the Mean towards lower VAL, how far we will get depends on selling volume we get. If we don't get through Key Support then we could see us stay in current range trading around current VAH. For us to see strength or at least stability again we would have to accept back over 5204.25-07.50 area but as mentioned Supply is trapped and could be coming out today.
Comment:
Buying in VAH was strong and gave no continuation towards lower end of VAH and instead we have covering here under/around the Edge. Over 5199.75 - 5204.25 we are back inside the Edge and now could potential trade at the lower part of it while we have Supply coming out and size shorts from above covering. IF we build up enough Supply up here we could see another move under later on in the day, we do have minutes later on so things could slow down at some point and we can either see some move before if more supply will try to come out before the Minutes. We have sellers n the Edge so might not soo too much continuation through it and 5219.75 - 15.75 will be our level to watch for anything higher inside the Edge.
Comment:
Market has now trapped enough Supply in above VAL and over to make 5249.75 - 44.75 our Key Resistance and we have now accepted in this 5249.75 - 5199.75 Range. As mentioned Sunday we had our size sellers inside Value above VAL which showed Tuesday and Wednesday when we tried to make moves into Value and were met with strong selling. Selling looked strong as if market wanted to continue but our buyers were positioned Under Value inside the Edge and under it which also showed as every dip inside was bought back up back towards the 64-60 area as mentioned that was the spot price might want to keep returning to. We were able to flush the Edge and tag first VAH top under 5182.50 and then a day later tagged 5174.25 but failed to tag and get through VAH bottom at 5170.50 which needed to break to unlock any lower prices, instead we got a move back into the Edge and another run at VAL but this time no reaching 64-60 and trapping more buyers over 5249.75. Last day of the week and we most likely can look to stay in this current range, of course there is still a chance we can flush this range and spend some time under but now we have trapped traders on both sides of it so unless we can accept under or over this ranges Key areas again then we will look to balance within it and do clean up. Again levels for this range are Key Resistance 5249.75 - 44.75 which is unlikely we see it today again but never know, then we have 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 these two act as an Intrarange Mean and price may want to stay in or around those areas more often than not or pushes away from it will look to return back inside and Key Support at 5204.25 - 5199.75. We can spend quite some time in or around this range as this is an important area on HTF, BUT if we do have more volume to come out we need to watch out as if we accept under Key Support we could also use 5204.25 - 5154.25 as our clean up Range so have to watch out for that but only if we accept under Key Support. And of course the less likely scenario for now is acceptance back over Key Resistance back inside/over VAL.
Comment:
Buyers in the HTF Mean, 59.25 - 54.25 Support held, looks like 5204 - 5154 is our range for now after all as we weren't able to hold 5204.25 - 5199.75 instead pushed under, retested from below and continued lower to the lower Support through VAH, dip under and back towards VAH. 2 hours left in the day, never know if more selling will come in or not but seems like we found our range for time being. To remind levels in this range are 5204.25 - 5199.75 is now our Key Resistance then 5188.25 - 84.50 // 74.25 - 70.50 area will act as ranges Value and 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Support.