ES UpdateES and RTY aren;t oversold yet, NQ is already there. Not sure if teh market gaps down or not but I expect MFI to hit oversold tomorrow morning.by hungry_hippo7
ES - Pegging All-Time HighsNothing but all time high's at the moment eyy..? If dollar is to see some sort of a decline, sweeping sell stops on the intraday timeframes, we could see a continuation of ES running through previous all-time highs It's 7 of the top 500 companies inside of the S&P 500 that is propping ES so what happens when their quarterly report is negative in one of the quarters? My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTANShort14:35by LegendSinceUpdated 1
3/5 Tuesday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral Weekly Volatility Risk: High Trading Plan for Tuesday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5135 (major), 5125-27 (major), 5110-13, 5102 (major), 5092 (major), 5087, 5079, 5070-73 (major), 5065, 5053, 5045 (major), 5037 (major), 5033, 5026 (major), 5018, 5013 (major), 5003, 4998 (major), 4987, 4983 (major), 4976 (Major), 4971, 4960-64 (major). Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5140, 5146, 5151 (major), 5163 (major), 5170 (major), 5179, 5187-92 (major), 5200, 5209, 5219, 5226 (major), 5236, 5241 (major), 5248, 5268-62 (major), 5286, 5297-5301 (major), 5305, 5312, 5320, 5327 (major). Trading Strategy: Cautious Approach with Chop: After last week's strong directional move, expect increased volatility and less predictable price action. Focus on nimble trading, targeting profits, and moving to the sidelines frequently. Potential Longs: Consider buying dips at 5135 (tested heavily, may be less reliable) and 5125-5127. Aim for shorter-term gains. Only target major support levels for longer-term holds if 5092 fails. Deep Correction Watch: Be highly cautious of long positions if 5092 falters. A sustained break below this level would signal a substantial correction with multiple major support failures, a scenario well-suited for short positions. Shorting: I avoid countertrend shorts in ES. Focus on shorting potential breakdowns at 5163, 5170, and 5187-92 for those comfortable with this style. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: Bulls remain in control of the broader trend. Short-term corrections are expected, but a sustained bearish shift would require weeks of downward pressure. Base Building: A successful defense of the 5125-27 zone, with 5092 as the absolute floor, could pave the way for a consolidation pattern under 5150. This would set the stage for a breakout towards 5170, 5187-92, and eventually 5226. Adding on Strength: Buying dips after reclaiming 5140 shows potential for short-term gains. Bear Case: Significant Correction: A break below 5092 indicates a failure of last week's breakout and the start of a deeper, multi-day correction - ideal for shorting opportunities. Breakdown Trades: Breakdown trades target shorts below failed support levels. Look for strong bounces and failed breakdowns. 5125-27 also presents a potential shorting point if it fails to hold. In Summary: The trend remains bullish, but volatility is increasing. Prioritize nimble trading and focus on support/resistance levels. If 5125-27 holds, a new base may form under 5150. A break below 5092 signals a major correction and triggers short positions. News: Top Stories for March 5, 2024 Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500 saw a strong February performance with a 5.34% gain and a current YTD total return of 7.11%. However, investor sentiment is shifting, with concerns about the Fed potentially postponing interest rate cuts. Wall Street closed lower on March 4th ahead of key economic data releases and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony. AI Stocks Drive Gains: The technology sector, particularly AI-focused stocks like Nvidia, have experienced strong earnings growth. Nvidia's Q4 revenue surge of 265% highlights this trend. Fed Policy & Economic Data: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on March 6th and 7th, with markets awaiting updates on monetary policy and interest rate trajectories. The Fed has denied plans for rate cuts at the March FOMC meeting. The latest Federal Reserve projections anticipate a marked slowdown in US GDP growth for 2024. Despite this, the S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs fueled by strong economic fundamentals. Global Growth Outlook: China sets a 5% economic growth target for 2024, in line with expectations and marking a rebound from the previous year's pace. IMF paints a resilient global economy forecast for 2024 and 2025, projecting growth at 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This is attributed to robust performance in the US and various large emerging markets, alongside fiscal stimulus in China. Corporate Highlights: Target exceeded Wall Street estimates with a strong fourth-quarter profit increase of 58%, showcasing effective cost and inventory management. The retailer's shares surged 8.5% premarket. Other major retailers, including Costco, Gap, and Nordstrom, will release their holiday sales figures, offering insight into consumer sentiment and the economy's health. Crypto Trends & Investment Flows: Bitcoin funds experience record inflows, signaling growing investor interest. BlackRock's bitcoin ETF achieved the fastest-ever rise to $10 billion in assets. Investors favor AI and technology stocks, with Nvidia noted as a top performer in the S&P 500. Regulatory & Policy Developments: President Biden forms a strike force to tackle 'corporate rip-offs', suggesting heightened regulatory focus on corporate actions. EU regulators continue to tighten their grip on Big Tech this year, as evident in a recent record antitrust fine levied against Apple. Disclaimer: This analysis serves educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.by spytradingpro1
ES SP500 ShortMonday's price action saw ES/SP500 trade above Fridays highs, but failed to displace above Friday's high. My bias is for price to trade to Monday's low. I am looking for H1/H4 bearish levels to be respected, and will then look for m5/m15 entry once I see premium bearish arrays are being respected.Shortby Tradius_TradesUpdated 1
Reviewing OverNight Price Action ESGoing over the Overnight session ES and coming up with a plan for the day. We're in full on Sniper Mode. no setup no trade today. 01:56by BobbyS8130
Stock Market ceiling, 5260$SPX500 hits ceiling somewhere around April to June. (if current trend holds intact) Longby citsvar0
Rest day on Tuesday Without any dramatic fundamental news a rest day on Tuesday would be expected.01:38by DanGramza3
ES Price Action Daily ReviewGoing over the price action ES for Monday March 4th. took a bunch of trades. sharing our results and what we think the market is most likely to do based on Price Action. 02:55by BobbyS8130
ES UpdateLooked like a little bit of futures selling EOD today. ES is still overbought, did not short anything, and certainly not going long until MFI and RSI hit oversold. I'm still waiting for algos to start cycling so I have confidence in my indicators.by hungry_hippo3
S&P500 Expect Correction at this Critical LevelDepend on FB Levels the current area is critical area that mean the price may change price movements to other direction , Pls follow me to get my price analysis notifications Shortby eaksglobal1
ES1! afternoon updateWe have three complete impulse waves off October 2023 low of 4173.25. If these three waves are themselves to complete a primary impulse wave up, then I would expect a correction to begin soon, with price not going above 5301. If there is more impulsive price action coming, then something else (not necessarily bullish) is going on. Key support levels are 4936.50 and 5066.50. Key resistance 5301.by discobiscuit1
3/4 Monday Trading PlanMarket Sentiment: Neutral to Bullish Trading Plan for Monday Supports to Watch: Immediate Supports: 5134, 5124 (major), 5113 (major), 5106, 5096 (major), 5093, 5085-87, 5079, 5074 (major), 5063, 5052 (major), 5046, 5039-41 (major), 5034, 5028 (major), 5018, 5013, 4998-5000 (major), 4992, 4987-85 (major), 4975, 4970, 4960-65 (major) Resistances to Monitor: Key Resistances: 5144, 5150 (major), 5158, 5163 (major), 5170, 5175, 5183-86 (major), 5190, 5200, 5208-10 (Major), 5216, 5225-30 (major), 5240 (major), 5246 (major), 5259 Trading Strategy: Cautious Approach After Parabolic Rally: Exercise caution after the recent parabolic move; price needs to establish new levels for clear trading opportunities. Be prepared for choppy, unpredictable action or a pullback. Reduced Position Size: Limit risk exposure on Monday by trading only a partial position (approximately 20% of previous profits). Focus on Supports and Demand: Target 5124 and 5113 as primary support zones for potential longs. If 5096 fails, consider the bull flag pattern invalidated and anticipate a deeper pullback. Remain patient until at least the 5052 level before considering new long entries. Bull Case: Trend Continuation: The bull market remains in control. Focus on the 5123-5113 and 5096 support zones. Holding above these levels could lead to a consolidation phase (5113-5150) before pushing higher towards 5163, 5183-86, and ultimately 5225. Adding on Strength (Cautiously): Look for opportunities to add to positions in potential pullbacks or flags that develop off the 5134 area. Bear Case: Breakdown Below 5113-5123: A decisive break below these support levels signals a shift in momentum. Consider shorts on failed bounces at 5123/5113, targeting a move down the levels. Use disciplined profit-taking. Top News for March 4, 2024 Stock Market Rally Continues: The S&P 500 continues to make new all-time highs in 2024, with February's performance marking an impressive 5.34% gain. Year-to-date, the index boasts a strong 7.11% total return. Optimism Around a Soft Landing: Investor confidence in the Federal Reserve achieving a soft landing for the U.S. economy is growing. Positive Earnings Results: Fourth-quarter earnings surpassed expectations, demonstrating corporate resilience to rising costs and high-interest rates. Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Updates: The bond market anticipates only a 3.0% chance of a Fed rate cut in March. However, a 66.1% chance exists for a cut of at least 25 basis points by June. The January CPI showed mixed results at 3.1% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing efforts to achieve a soft landing. Tech Leaders Shine: Nvidia (NVDA) reported astonishing Q4 revenue growth of 265%, sending its stock prices soaring over 60% YTD. Apple Faces EU Fine: The European Union imposed a fine of nearly $2 billion on Apple over preferential treatment of its music streaming service, Apple Music, compared to competitors like Spotify. JetBlue and Spirit Merger Blocked: A court ruling has halted the planned merger between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines. Winnebago Results Upcoming: Winnebago Industries will release its fiscal 2024 second-quarter financial results on March 21, 2024. Market Outlook Tech Sector Leads the Charge: Strong earnings and growth in technology stocks, especially within the AI sector, are fueling the market rally. Historical Trends Offer Insights: Data suggests that a positive S&P 500 performance in January and February usually signals continued growth over the year, with an average return of 14.8%. Other News Highlights: Trump's Ballot Eligibility Restored: The Supreme Court has reinstated former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run in future elections. Bitcoin Rally Continues: Bitcoin's bullish momentum continues, with prices exceeding $65,000. Nikkei 225 Breaks New Ground: Japan's Nikkei 225 index climbed 0.5%, surpassing the 40,000 mark for the first time. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.by spytradingpro0
Reviewing Morning Price Action ESGoing over the morning Price Action ES. calling out what we see and our plan. which stocks we're interested in and what we think for the next few hours. 01:35by BobbyS8130
SP500**SP500:** The price made a new high of 5146.00. The bullish trend is expected to continue.Longby simaoxceps0
Review Price Action ES OvernightGoing over ES price Action Overnight. what do we see and how do we want to trade today. Mondays have been pretty choppy lately. not expecting much today. letting Price do its thing. focusing on the leaders and setups. no setup no trade Monday.01:33by BobbyS8130
Will Global Stocks Keep Rising? How To Handle The Bull RunHey Traders, Lots of traders struggle to pre-empt potential falls in Markets. This is because they over-trade or over-leverage. This is particularly dangerous when you have extreme sentiment and greed in the Markets, causing traders and investors to buy continuously. The prospect of a home run is tempting to think about, but is it reality? Here's an inside look.Short09:03by WillSebastianUpdated 7
Short $MESNo big news today. The price action looks weak and consolidating. The next liquidity to be drawn is the 1 HR FVG. Shortby seventyfivekgtrader0
Review Sunday ES price ActionGoing over the Price action on Sunday. we broke out of a bull flag last friday and now we're filling in the bull flag. expecting chop on monday. giving price the room it needs for discovery and not expecting much for the trading day. will revisit price action in the morning.01:30by BobbyS8130
3/3 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 5,114Welcome to the Weekly Trading Plan, where we dive deep into market and volume profile analysis to navigate the dynamic landscape of trading. Each week, we dissect key market trends, identify significant support and resistance levels, and leverage volume profile insights to uncover optimal entry and exit points. Our approach blends technical precision with a keen understanding of market psychology, empowering traders to make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through comprehensive analysis and strategic planning, we aim to capitalize on emerging opportunities while mitigating potential risks. Join us as we embark on a journey of discovery, mastering the art of trading through disciplined analysis and thoughtful execution. Welcome to a community where knowledge is power, and success is within reach. Let's chart a course to profitability together in the exciting world of trading. 3/3 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 5,114 Targets 5,145 5,194 5,259 Targets 5,089 5,032 4,997 Now trading at 5,141 Alerts You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close): Weekly opening 5,141 Weekly pivot at 5,114 Each weekly target. Side notes ES is currently OTFU in (D-W-M). Daily OTFU would come to an end if 5101.25 is breach during Monday's RTH session. 18:51by dhjesus1
ES has measured moves to 6150?ES has measured move AB=CD targets in the 5250 to 5425 and 6000 to 6150 areas.Longby gdh730
ES Futures My ContextThe last major two lows generated a possible channel bottom. In Sept 23, shorts broke a major level and rushed for the break of that line for a 3rd time. Really scary. They almost got it, but then the rally happened. Now we are out of balance to the high side, and have hope we can go higher, but not before we take a soft landing, IMO. Based on the channels created by price action AND horizontal fibs based on the high and low of covid 2020 to 2023, we have 4808.25 as a support level. Two key lines merge in early MAY 24. A fib line (61.8%) of the previous range on the channel, and the line defined by the previous all time high. We have now explored above, which is bullish, but will it sustain? We are currently 1/3 the way through a possible short term H/S event. If we crash tonight into tomorrow, market is done. I mean major correction. However, if we have enough momentum to define this H/S, we should only drop roughly equal to the height of that existing pattern. Thus, we will have, for now, preserved the current prices. Then, we can start bouncing between the pink trend lines, which were the real battle over this last couple weeks, but those are just entries and exits. The real battle should be won by end of H/S. Because we can then accumulate volume in this space below the high, but above 4808, before a very slow retest of key fibs as they combine May 2-5th or so. One more alternative exits. If we are almost done with the head and shoulders, and we get a last second break out, market would likely go into a bubble. But honestly? We're getting exhausted up here. Price action is sluggish. I'm just not seeing any interest in my charts to suggest the bubble option is valid anymore. And it's really a nice stable retracement to that old high of 4808. Just a few more months of sideways, _possibly a rate drop_, and the market can continue more steady, versus a hyperbolic crash or bubble. I'm probably more of a fan of the middle road. Flag out here, build some interest, then see where we are at. That's "healthy" to me. I think we all keep expecting more severe drama due to the recent memory of black swan events like COVID and FED influence, and this last rally. Plus, the draw back is probably Mag 7 only, we might even see small caps start to kick in while the correction is happening. But ya know, real traders don't use fibs because real traders scalp the 5 min chart because there is not predictability to the markets. :)by CaptainLogikUpdated 1
ES Weekly Levels (Mar4-8)On Friday, U.S. stocks surged to record highs, driven by a technology stock rally focused on AI. The Nasdaq achieved its second consecutive closing record, led by AI-related firms like NVDA and META. February marked the fourth consecutive month of overall gains, primarily attributed to AI and positive effects on semiconductor stocks. NVDA reached a $2 trillion market value for the first time, while AMD also hit a record high. Investors are cautiously monitoring potential Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments. Despite some economic weaknesses, signs of a rebound were seen, contributing to lower U.S. Treasury yields. Weekly results: SPX up 0.95%, NDX up 1.74%, DIA 0.11%. This week we look ahead to a slue of employment data including Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. SUMMARY ES had a weekly gain of 0.86% after trading in a wide range of 89 pts. ES made another week ATH high R1 = LTF 1.618 Fib X (5147) R2 = HTF 1.13 Fib X (5231) S1 = MTF 1.618 Fib X (5120) S2 = 9 ema (5074) Uptrend remains intact above the upward trendline. Data weak enough to keep rates down but strong enough for earnings growth Market believes election year will provide support Key earnings reports = TGT, COST, AVGO, KR, RIOT, NIO, ROSS & JD Key econ data = PMI Tuesday, Boc Rate Decision Wed, Powell on Thursday & NonFarm Payrolls Friday Bias remains LONG absent any new information Limited resistance levels above make large whole number very important. Watch for small cap growth to finally take off. RSI 68.13 | VIX at 13.12 | 10 year 4.18% by WadeYendall1