ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Wed (Nov 26)Market Overview
The equity markets are currently facing a pivotal moment. The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) has made a significant rebound from the daily low around 6,520, approaching robust resistance levels formed by the highs of the previous week and yesterday. Both daily and 4-hour charts reveal a consistent pattern of higher lows emerging from a recent trough. However, the price now finds itself just beneath a key distribution cap and Fibonacci extension zone, estimated between 6,810 and 6,888. The daily momentum oscillator has shifted upward from an oversold position and remains at a mid-range level, indicating that while it is not yet overbought, the general trend still favors buying the dips, provided that crucial support levels are maintained.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) mirrors this momentum, hovering near its New York Pre-Market (NYPM) peak. Recent gains have been bolstered by impressive earnings from Nvidia, highlighting the ongoing AI narrative, even as concerns about a potential market bubble begin to emerge, with NVDA's stock showing signs of volatility.
Events & News for Wednesday 26 Nov (Pre-Thanksgiving)
Wednesday is a data-heavy session in the U.S., and it’s also the last “normal” day before the Thanksgiving holiday liquidity vacuum. Expect volatility spikes and potential regime shifts around:
• 08:30 ET – Weekly jobless claims plus a cluster of delayed October releases: durable goods orders, trade balance/wholesale data, personal income & core PCE inflation, and related indicators.
• 10:00 ET – New home sales and other housing-related data.
• 10:30 ET – EIA crude oil inventories (can move risk sentiment via energy/curve).
• 14:00 ET – Fed Beige Book, giving an updated regional read on growth and inflation ahead of December’s FOMC meeting.
In addition, the BEA has postponed the Q3 GDP second estimate that had been scheduled for this week, so markets are leaning more heavily on the data above for macro guidance.
Net takeaway: 8:30 ET is the main volatility window, with a second impulse risk at 10:00–10:30 and potential trend extension or reversal into the NY morning kill-zone.
Key Zones (ES Z-25, based on current structure)
Immediate Resistance
• R1: 6,790–6,795
NYPM High / Prior Day High cluster (NYPM.H 6,792.5, PDH & Y-VAH 6,792.5). Sellers have defended this intraday band so far; it’s the lid of today’s range.
• R2: 6,805–6,815
1H fib extension 1.272 (≈ 6,810.25) plus likely PWH vicinity. First HTF extension above today’s range; a clean “stop run & decision zone” if 6,795 breaks.
• R3: 6,840–6,850
1H fib extension 1.618 (≈ 6,847.25). If buyers punch through R2, this is the next logical magnet and a strong candidate for an exhaustion spike on good data.
• R4: 6,880–6,900
1H fib 2.000 (≈ 6,888) and prior daily swing-high area. That whole 6,888–6,900 pocket is a big-picture objective and, for now, a likely “weak high” that could attract a stop run but also host the first serious counter-trend attempts.
Support / Demand
• S1: 6,765–6,775
Yesterday’s POC (~6,769.5), NY lunch high/NYL.H (6,774.25), and top of the 1H consolidation shelf. As long as the market keeps closing above this band on 15–60m, the short-term uptrend remains intact.
• S2: 6,720–6,735
Y-VAL 6,720.5, LO.H 6,721.5, ONH 6,732.5. This is the top of the prior value area and a natural “buy-the-dip” location if 6,770 gives way on data noise.
• S3: 6,670–6,705
NYAM.L 6,674.5, IB Low 6,674.5, ONL 6,701.75, plus current LOL 6,701.75. If we get a deeper flush, this is the primary intraday demand band where bulls must step back in to preserve the recent trend from the daily low.
• S4: 6,560–6,580
PDL 6,574.5 and top of the larger daily discount block. A break and sustained acceptance below here would open the door for a much larger retrace back toward the 6,520–6,420 HTF discount zone (daily 1.272/1.618 fibs).
Market Outlook: Bias & Forecast (Overnight → NY Session)
Structural Bias:
The prevailing market sentiment remains bullish as long as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) sustains its position above the support range of 6,720–6,735 on a closing basis. The likely trajectory indicates a probing towards the 6,810–6,850 extension band. While the recent rally shows signs of being extended, it has not yet reached a point of definitive exhaustion, pointing towards a “late-stage impulse” rather than a confirmed top.
Overnight → London Session:
The base case anticipates a sideways-to-moderately downward movement from the 6,790s back toward the support levels of S1/S2 (6,765 → 6,730). This move aims to address intraday imbalances without disturbing the overall market structure. Should liquidity be limited, there may be an attempt during the London session to trigger stops through today's highs, directing attention towards resistance levels R2 (6,805–6,815) ahead of the New York session's developments.
New York AM Session (8:30–11:00 ET):
Should robust data emerge—indicating a favorable economic climate with subdued core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and steady labor claims—this is likely to spark a rally through R1 towards R2/R3, targeting 6,810 and subsequently 6,847 as key upside magnets. Conversely, a negative surprise featuring weak growth, a troubling inflation mix, or a risk-off sentiment evident in the Beige Book later in the day could dramatically alter the market landscape, potentially driving a liquidation toward support levels S2/S3, or in case of an unexpected shock, even probing S4 over the coming 24 to 48 hours.
In the near term, the expectation leans towards a gradual upward movement with shallow pullbacks, aiming for the 6,810–6,847 range. However, traders should remain vigilant for an increased risk of an exhaustion spike and a possible intraday reversal as this target zone is approached.
A++ Setups for Tomorrow
A++ Setup 1 – Trend Long from Retest of 6,730–6,770
Trigger:
Price trades down into 6,730–6,770 (S1/S2 overlap) either overnight or on the 8:30 data flush.
15m prints a higher low and closes back above ~6,755, reclaiming the mid-range.
5m confirms with a clear reclaim and hold of 6,760–6,770, then a higher low on 1m.
Entry Zone: 6,760–6,775 on a clean pullback after reclaim (not the first knife-catch wick).
Initial Stop: Below 6,720, tucked beyond Y-VAL/LO.H and the pullback low (≈ 35–45 pts risk depending on your exact fill).
Targets:
• TP1: 6,810–6,815 (R2 / 1.272 fib).
• TP2: 6,840–6,850 (R3 / 1.618 fib).
• Stretch: 6,880–6,900 (R4 / 2.0 fib) if data and risk sentiment stay supportive.
A++ Setup 2 – Exhaustion Short from 6,847–6,888
Trigger:
Impulsive move into 6,847–6,888 during NY AM or early PM, ideally on or shortly after 8:30 data.
15m candle shows rejection (long upper wick) and closes back below ~6,847.
5m prints a lower high under that rejection high, and 1m fails to make new highs on retests.
Entry Zone: 6,845–6,865 on the first proper lower-high after the rejection (avoid shorting the exact wick; let the LH print).
Initial Stop: Above 6,900, beyond the 2.0 fib and psychological round number (≈ 35–45 pts risk).
Targets:
• TP1: 6,790–6,795 (R1 / NYPMH/PDH cluster).
• TP2: 6,760–6,770 (S1 pivot band).
• Stretch: 6,720–6,735 (S2 / top of value) if selling pressure persists.
