Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
Market priced in rate cuts for later this year based on the December Dot Plot, but you can see that the market has started to price that back out because of CPI and PPI numbers. PCE release on Feb 29th, and Fed meeting in March with a new Dot Plot.
The Fed once again f'ed up by showing rate cuts in their Dot Plot, we'll see if they screw up again. Appears that...
Just an image I use to see where we are relative to history. Well the market is leaning so far towards easing that market rates (defined here as an average of 1,2,3 years are trading at historic discounts to the fed funds rate. Core and measured CPI there for you too. Enjoy, AMK
As many of you know.. I'm not fan of making small chart analysis but due to data ive got i will be updating .. for moment and as much of pressure from infaltion has cooled down... we can clearly see a rate cuts in near future... plus.. next year is Us election.. so fed is under heavy pressure now.
The yields on the short term Treasury Bills have been on the rise since the FOMC started hiking the Dollar interest rates in March 2022. Earlier this week, the FOMC maintained the interest rates at 5.25% for the first time. This marks the beginning of the end of the current economic cycle. The yields are now at previous resistance from the 2007/2008 highs. If the...
This chart shows that 1 year yields are diverging in trend direction away from longer term yields. I don't know what this means but it looks very odd indeed. Markets appear to be betting that deflation is on the way.
🚨#yields look to be topping🚨
Things are FALLING into place!
Been posting on $DJI & $BTC RANGES
Risk reward was great late last week & on this dip (focusing on DOW JONES ATM)
$VIX staying 18-23 is ok
Adding more $ on dips
#stocks #crypto
First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
US1Y: Bullish
US2Y: Bullish
US5Y:...
This is very frightening and doesn't look good, 1 Year Treasury yield dropping to 0.03%???? Is this the capitulation moment we've been waiting for? Sound the alarm!
With the 2022 recession ever coming closer, more hints that it’s nearing appear. One of those hints include this graph, which shows the 1 year bond surpassing the 4% mark, and it’s more than any other bond. For the first time in more than 15 years, the 1 year bond surpasses 4%. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 1 month, and it’s still inverted. At...
2018 - Flattening curve throughout the year with some slight inversion towards the end.
2019 - Complete inversion early in the year lasting awhile. Entire curve beginning to fall.
2020 - COVID Fed response slams the short end to the ground with the longer end having a pretty muted reaction.
2021 - Curve starts to stretch with short rates being extremely low...
