We made a call that bond #yields were topping in early June 6M has cratered since then 1Yr sold off, bounced, pulling back again 2Yr & 10Yr TVC:TNX we stated likely topped long ago HOWEVER, we recently stated that they looked stronger than the SHORT term #bonds INTERESTING INDEED #Yieldcurve coming to an end?
🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed! #interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks 1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6% HOWEVER 10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022! #bonds
6M and 1y bond yields will decline from here, as current 5,25 % interest have been successfully priced in. rate cuts from 2024 on seem to be the common expectation markets will price in from here. Of a further rate hike is no talk at the moment. Inflation /core pce price is already down significantly at 4.3% and falling. Means bond prices rise from here. Dollar...
Negative rates are finally here for the US with the 6mo t-bill ticking below -2bps (feed is slightly delayed here). Simply meaning that you will now need to pay the US government for 6mo cash deposits. This is the only way they can continue in the "end game" strategy. It is a well known phenomenon that the US 2's 5's was ringing alarm bells last year , those...
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