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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6600.Colleagues, the main idea is still the upward movement in the impulse of the middle wave “5”. Wave “4” is likely to take place, because the bulls need to gain strength to update the local maximum of 6512. The most important thing here is that the target of 6600 is a round number, which is quite attractive for buyers and limit sellers. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
17
Why Forex Reserves Matter in Trading1. What Are Forex Reserves? Forex reserves are assets held by a nation’s central bank in foreign currencies, precious metals like gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other reserve assets. These reserves are not just passive holdings; they are active instruments used for monetary policy, currency stabilization, and ensuring global payment obligations. Key Components of Forex Reserves Foreign Currencies – Typically held in USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, and increasingly CNY. Gold Holdings – A traditional hedge against inflation and currency risk. SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) – An IMF-backed reserve asset that supplements official reserves. IMF Reserve Position – Access to IMF funding if needed. 2. Why Countries Accumulate Forex Reserves Stability in Currency Markets Countries need reserves to intervene in forex markets to prevent excessive volatility in their domestic currency. Confidence for International Trade Exporters and importers prefer dealing with countries that can guarantee payment stability. Debt Servicing Reserves allow governments to service foreign debt obligations without defaulting. Buffer Against Economic Shocks Acts as insurance against sudden capital flight, trade imbalances, or geopolitical crises. Support for Sovereign Credit Ratings Higher reserves improve investor confidence and reduce borrowing costs. 3. Importance of Forex Reserves in Global Trading 3.1 Stabilizing Currency Values A currency’s exchange rate plays a central role in trade competitiveness. For example, if the Indian Rupee depreciates too rapidly, imports like oil and electronics become expensive. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can sell USD from its reserves to supply dollars in the forex market, stabilizing the rupee. 3.2 Controlling Inflation Imported inflation is a major risk for countries dependent on foreign goods. By using reserves to maintain a stable currency, central banks reduce inflationary pressures, which directly impacts stock and bond markets. 3.3 Investor Confidence High reserves attract foreign institutional investors (FIIs) because they see lower risk of capital restrictions. Conversely, low reserves signal vulnerability, causing capital flight. 3.4 Crisis Management During the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, countries with low reserves like Thailand suffered massive currency collapses, while nations with higher reserves recovered faster. 4. How Forex Reserves Impact Trading Across Markets 4.1 Currency Trading (Forex Markets) Traders closely monitor reserve levels to predict central bank interventions. A rise in reserves indicates strong capital inflows or trade surpluses, usually strengthening the currency. A fall in reserves may mean heavy intervention to defend the domestic currency, creating volatility. 4.2 Equity Markets Strong reserves signal economic resilience, attracting long-term investments. For export-driven companies, reserve usage can stabilize currency swings, reducing earnings risk. 4.3 Bond Markets Nations with healthy reserves are seen as safer borrowers. Sovereign bond yields fall when reserves are high, lowering borrowing costs. 4.4 Commodity Trading Forex reserves influence global demand for commodities. For example, when China builds reserves, it often buys U.S. Treasuries and commodities, boosting global demand. Gold prices also respond directly to central bank reserve diversification strategies. 5. Case Studies: Forex Reserves and Trading Dynamics 5.1 China Holds the world’s largest reserves (over $3 trillion). Uses reserves to keep the yuan stable, ensuring export competitiveness. Global traders watch China’s reserve reports to gauge trade and commodity flows. 5.2 India As of 2025, India’s reserves are above $650 billion. Provides a cushion against oil import costs and FII outflows. Traders interpret rising Indian reserves as bullish for the rupee and equity markets. 5.3 Russia (Post-Sanctions) Sanctions froze Russia’s dollar reserves in 2022. Moscow shifted to gold and yuan, changing global reserve composition. Traders saw sharp volatility in ruble trading due to limited access to USD reserves. 6. Forex Reserves as a Trading Indicator For traders, reserves serve as a leading indicator of currency and capital flow trends. Rising Reserves: Suggests export growth, capital inflows, and stable currency → bullish sentiment. Falling Reserves: Signals interventions, capital flight, or trade deficits → bearish sentiment. Traders often combine reserve data with: Balance of Payments (BoP) reports Capital account movements Central bank policy signals 7. Risks of Over-Reliance on Reserves While reserves are critical, there are risks: Opportunity Cost – Funds invested in low-yield assets like U.S. Treasuries could have been used domestically. Geopolitical Risk – Sanctions can freeze reserves held abroad. Currency Depreciation of Reserve Assets – Holding too many USD assets can hurt if the dollar weakens. False Security – Excessive reliance may delay structural economic reforms. 8. Future of Forex Reserves in Global Trading Shift Toward Gold & Yuan – Central banks are diversifying away from the USD. Digital Reserves (CBDCs) – Future reserves may include digital currencies issued by central banks. Geopolitical Weaponization of Reserves – The Russia-Ukraine war highlighted how reserves can be frozen, making diversification essential. AI and Data-Driven Reserve Management – Advanced analytics will improve reserve allocation strategies. 9. Lessons for Traders and Investors Currency traders should track reserve levels as part of fundamental analysis. Equity investors should see reserves as a buffer against volatility. Bond traders should link reserves with sovereign credit risk. Commodity traders should monitor how reserve diversification affects gold and oil demand. Conclusion Forex reserves are not just a financial cushion for governments; they are a critical trading signal that reflects a country’s economic health, ability to withstand crises, and global credibility. From stabilizing exchange rates to influencing global capital flows, reserves touch every corner of financial markets. For traders, understanding the dynamics of reserves means being able to anticipate currency movements, equity flows, bond yields, and commodity prices with greater accuracy. In a world of heightened volatility, forex reserves remain one of the most powerful forces shaping international trade and financial stability.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
5
Powell cutting rates? But why would he?📉 Powell cutting rates? 100% priced in. Even talk of 1–2% slashes. But why would he? Let’s look at what the media ignores: 🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company. Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse. The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged. So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing. The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
SP:SPX
by CryptoNikkoid
3
S&P 500: What Is the Chart Impact of the Fed on 09/17?The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17, will be decisive for the trajectory of U.S. equity markets at the end of 2025. Depending on Jerome Powell’s choice, scenarios range from a stock market crash to a new all-time high, with more neutral consolidation phases in between. Five possible options emerge, each with specific implications for the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000, which I describe below. First case: no pivot. If the Fed decides to keep rates unchanged throughout 2025 due to overly resilient inflation, then the scenario is clearly bearish. The lack of monetary support would suffocate market momentum, triggering a 20–30% crash in the S&P 500, dropping it to between 4,800 and 5,000 points. The Russell 2000, more fragile and sensitive to the macroeconomic environment, would retreat toward its critical support zone of 1,600–1,700 points. Second case: a limited technical pivot. The Fed might opt for just one rate cut in September or October, justified by a temporary adjustment to the labor market. In this case, markets would not see it as a strong easing signal but rather as a circumstantial gesture. Result: the S&P 500 would decline toward the 6,000–6,100 area, with a parallel correction of the Russell 2000 around 2,000 points. Third case: a real and healthy pivot. This is the most favorable scenario for Wall Street. Disinflation is confirmed near 2%, employment remains under control, and the Fed initiates a genuine rate-cutting cycle starting in September or October. In this context, the underlying bullish trend would regain full strength: the S&P 500 would head toward 6,700–7,000 points, while the Russell 2000 would break out of its consolidation to surpass its November 2021 record. Fourth case: an unhealthy pivot. Here, the Fed cuts rates in a more fragile environment: inflation remains near 3%, but it is primarily labor market deterioration that drives the decision. Markets could still find support from lower credit costs. The S&P 500 would preserve its former record at 6,200 points and likely aim for 6,700 points. The Russell 2000, more sensitive to financing conditions, would fully benefit from this easing, also surpassing its 2021 high. Fifth case: the emergency Fed Put. Finally, in the darkest scenario, a shock to employment would trigger a brutal Fed intervention, with a “jumbo cut” and a series of rapid rate reductions. While this support might contain the recession, the immediate reaction would be a sharp drop: the S&P 500 would plunge into bear market territory before a potential recovery tied to monetary easing. The Russell 2000 would follow the same trajectory. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
1
S&P500 | H1 Double Top | GTradingMethod👋 Hello traders, Tried shorting a potential head and shoulders on the 1H chart earlier — it failed. Thankfully, one of my exit rules triggered before my stop loss, so the loss was small, but still not pleasant. That’s trading. 🧐 Market Overview: The bigger picture remains the same. On the detailed side, I am looking for a potential double top on the hourly chart. RSI is making lower highs while price is making higher highs, which shows weakening buying momentum. For me, this is a non-negotiable variable when trading double tops and head & shoulders setups. I’ll be waiting for a candle closure in my entry range, alongside a few more confirmations, before taking the next shot. Patience is key here. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/Reward: 3.4 Entry: 6 598.4 Stop Loss: 6 608.3 Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 567.9 Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 557.9 💡 GTradingMethod Tip: Losses are part of the process. The key is to keep them small, stick to your rules, and wait for probability to play out over time. 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Follow me to catch my next setup, and let me know — do you think this head and shoulders will confirm, or will buyers push the S&P to fresh highs? 📌 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by GTradingMethod
12
S&P500 |H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello Traders, happy Tuesday! 🧐 Market Overview: I’ve been closely tracking the rising wedge forming on the 1 hour chart. While this isn’t a pattern I normally trade, the structure caught my attention, and I decided to expose a small amount of risk. Rising wedges are generally bearish in nature - they don't always have to be though. If I zoom out, markets are over bought on the RSI and there are rsi divergences on multiple timeframes. This is one signal that markets need to cool off before advancing further. So bearing in mind the RSI divergences and the bearish pattern, I have decided to risk a small amount. Further, if this pattern plays out, it will likely bring crypto down with it. Ideally, I’d prefer to see a clean double top develop before committing more exposure on the short side. 📊 Trade Plan: Entry: 6 633.7 Stop Loss: 6 648.7 Take Profit: Not predefined (will target structural support levels highlighted on the chart) 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts – I’d like to hear if anyone else is trading this pattern or if you have any tips on how to trade it. 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by GTradingMethod
6
Secular & Cyclical Bull & Bear MarketsSecular vs. Cyclical Bull & Bear Markets (S&P 500, 1921–Present) Secular Market Cycles (long-term) Secular Bull: 1921–1929 1949–1968 1982–2000 2013–Present Secular Bear: 1929–1949 1968–1982 2000–2013 Cyclical Market Cycles (shorter-term swings inside secular trends) Cyclical Bears: 1929–1932, 1937–1942, 1946–1949, 1956–1957, 1961–1962, 1966, 1968–1970, 1973–1974, 1976–1978, 1980–1982, 1987, 1990, 2000–2002, 2007–2009, 2020 (COVID), 2022. Cyclical Bulls: 1932–1937, 1942–1946, 1949–1956, 1957–1961, 1962–1966, 1966–1968, 1970–1973, 1974–1976, 1978–1980, 1982–1987, 1987–1990, 1990–2000, 2002–2007, 2009–2020, 2020–2022, 2022–Present. Key Takeaways Secular Bulls tend to last ~13–15 years on average, delivering powerful long-term gains with multiple smaller cyclical corrections along the way. Secular Bears last ~13–16 years, usually defined by sideways price action with sharp rallies and deep drawdowns, leaving investors flat or negative after inflation. Cyclical Bulls average ~4–5 years, while Cyclical Bears average ~1–2 years. The current secular bull began in 2013 after breaking out of the 2000–2013 range.
SP:SPX
by Momentum_Trading_Strategy
1
S&P 500 to 7000 over the next 60 daysYeT another contrarian idea as so many on the platform publish S&P 500 “short” positions. Just as with the NASDAQ 100 idea, many paper hands were flushed out of the market earlier in the year. Now they wait with cash as the market grinds higher. Others throwing themselves into Put options. What next? First the basic question trend and support/resistance. The Trend Higher lows have been printed consistently since the April sell off. The trend is up. Support & Resistance Look left. Multiple levels of past resistance now confirm as support (blue arrows). How is it possible to be bearish? Sentiment As with the NASDAQ 100 idea, much of the retail market maintains a short bias with the Put/Call ratio far into the bearish territory. Historically, when put/call ratios spike above extreme levels, the S&P 500 rallies for weeks to months after. Why 7000? The breakout above the prior all time high of 6150 sent the market into price discovery. Selling pressure is largely absent with the April flush out leaving Wave 5 to develop. The uptrend channel will now not find resistance until the upper side of the channel, which is conveniently enough the Fibonacci 1.618 extension @ 7k. Why 60 days? Specifically this is a timeline defined by the US debt markets, which is for another post. Conclusion The S&P 500 climbs a wall of worry as confidence in the US markets evaporates. Loud bearish calls dominate the headlines, which is understandable. However the chart tells the real story: higher lows, confirmed supports, sentiment extremes, and extension forecasts all align with continuation. A move to 7000 area is very probable, what the market has in store afterwards is perhaps the bigger story, which is for another time. Is it possible for the market to correct to 6200 and below like many are calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
8
Good time to get out of the MARKET (Too Heated)The market has never been this expensive and retailers are being the exit liquidity for whales / institutions. Almost like many people are just sitting a sipping away on an active volcano. The market could be jumping for a few days, but a rate cut confirms that the market is weak and needs a boost / help. Unfortunately, it's too little too late. Most macros show a clear sign of stress, which is not being reflected in the market (for now). Don't get too complacent...the VIX will spike at astronomical levels when the hammer falls. Best of luck!
SP:SPXShort
by antonini2002
1
S&P 500 Hits Record High Ahead of CPI ReportS&P 500 Hits Record High Ahead of CPI Report Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released. In anticipation of the figures, traders remain optimistic – the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high yesterday, climbing above 6,560 points. The bullish sentiment is driven by: → Expectations of an interest rate cut in September, which is believed to provide a positive boost to the US economy (and increase corporate profits). → A sharp rally in Oracle (ORCL) shares. The company announced it had signed four multibillion-dollar contracts with three different clients. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 On the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 index, the price continues to move within an ascending channel, shown in blue. From a bearish perspective: → the price is near the upper boundary of the channel, which has acted as resistance for several weeks; → the RSI indicator is close to the overbought zone, which may discourage buyers from entering at higher prices; → yesterday’s candle had a long upper shadow (marked with an arrow), indicating increased selling pressure. From a bullish perspective: → the local level of 6,520, after being broken, has switched from resistance to support; → in September, the price has followed a steep upward trajectory (marked with orange lines), with the lower line showing signs of support. Taking this into account, we could assume that the market is in a short-term state of balance while awaiting the release of inflation data – arguably the key event of the week in the economic calendar. Favourable figures could encourage the bulls to attempt a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel, lifting the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Be prepared for spikes in volatility. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
S&P500 | H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello again Traders 🧐 Market Overview: The S&P is forming a rising wedge on the 1H chart. I don’t usually trade this pattern, but with the price approaching the wedge top, I see a potential short opportunity worth a small risk. On the 4H chart, there’s an even larger rising wedge at play. My instinct is still that this could turn into a fake-out, so I’m monitoring lower timeframes for short setups that align with the bigger picture. 📊 Trade Plan: Risk/Reward: 9.45 Entry: 6 621.4 Stop Loss: 6 631.0 Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 546.2 Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 487.4 🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts – I’d like to hear them. 📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by GTradingMethod
2
S&P500 | 100 year bullish channel | GTradingMethodHello Traders - Happy Monday! I thought this was a very interesting perspective on S&P500. What they don’t want you to see... 👀 The S&P has been moving inside a bullish channel for nearly 100 years (since 1925). Right now, price is breaking out of that channel but is it fakeout? If it’s a fakeout, the implications are huge: we could be looking at a 70% drop back to the bottom of the channel. ⚠️ Chart is on the monthly timeframe with a logarithmic scale. What do you think — breakout or fakeout? Very keen to hear all your thoughts #TradingLife
SP:SPXShort
by GTradingMethod
9
S&P500 | Daily rising wedge | GTradingMethodGood morning fellow traders, S&P price action is tightening inside a rising wedge on the daily chart, with volume steadily dropping. Rising wedges often signal potential reversals, but with CPI on deck, volatility could go either way. My guess, price tests top of rising wedge, finds resistance and down we go - a long way down. Keen to hear your thoughts on whether CPI is going to be a catalyst for a breakout or breakdown?
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by GTradingMethod
6
Multinational Corporations (MNCs) & Their Impact on Global TradiHistorical Evolution of MNCs in Global Trade Early Forms (Pre-19th Century): Trading companies like the British East India Company and Dutch East India Company (VOC) in the 17th century were precursors of modern MNCs. These entities controlled trade routes, natural resources, and colonies, combining commercial with quasi-governmental powers. They were central to early globalization, particularly in spices, textiles, and precious metals. Industrial Revolution (19th Century): Rise of steamships, railways, and telegraphs facilitated international business expansion. Companies like Singer Sewing Machine and Coca-Cola began setting up operations in multiple countries. Access to new markets and raw materials became driving forces. 20th Century Expansion: Post-WWII era saw unprecedented growth in MNC activity. Organizations like the World Bank, IMF, and GATT/WTO created favorable conditions for cross-border trade. Automotive companies (Ford, Toyota), pharmaceuticals (Pfizer, Novartis), and oil firms grew into global giants. 21st Century Globalization & Digital Age: MNCs now dominate global trade through sophisticated supply chains and digital platforms. Technology firms like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Alibaba reshape e-commerce and services. The scale and influence of MNCs rival those of many nation-states. MNCs’ Role in Shaping Global Trade 1. Expansion of Global Markets MNCs increase trade volumes by producing goods in one country and selling them in another. For instance: Apple designs in the U.S., manufactures in China, and sells globally. Nestlé sources raw materials from Africa, processes them in Europe, and distributes worldwide. This multiplies cross-border flows of goods, services, and intellectual property. 2. Creation of Global Supply Chains MNCs pioneered the idea of fragmented production. A single product may pass through 10–15 countries before reaching consumers. Example: A smartphone’s chips from Taiwan, software from the U.S., assembly in Vietnam, packaging in China, and final sales in India. This supply chain structure makes global trade deeply interconnected. 3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) MNCs contribute significantly to global trade through FDI, where they invest in factories, offices, or infrastructure abroad. FDI increases production capacity and export potential. Countries like India, Vietnam, and Mexico attract MNCs for low-cost production and skilled labor. 4. Technology Transfer MNCs carry cutting-edge technologies across borders, fostering industrial upgrades in host nations. For example, Toyota’s lean manufacturing system spread globally, revolutionizing efficiency. Tech giants bring digital innovations to developing economies. 5. Employment Generation & Skill Development MNCs provide millions of jobs in host countries and train local workforces in global standards. BPOs in India (Infosys, Accenture, IBM) boosted IT-enabled services exports. Manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia thrive because of MNC-driven employment. 6. Influence on Trade Policies MNCs lobby governments for trade liberalization, favorable tax regimes, and investment treaties. WTO and regional trade agreements are shaped significantly by corporate interests. They encourage reduction of tariffs, opening markets for goods and services. Positive Impacts of MNCs on Global Trading 1. Increased Efficiency & Lower Costs MNCs exploit comparative advantages across countries—cheaper labor in Asia, advanced R&D in Europe, or abundant resources in Africa. This leads to cost efficiency, making products affordable globally. 2. Market Expansion for Developing Nations Countries gain access to international markets by integrating into MNC supply chains. Example: Vietnam emerged as a textile and electronics hub thanks to MNC-led exports. 3. Enhanced Consumer Choices Consumers worldwide enjoy diverse products—from Starbucks coffee to Samsung phones—reflecting cultural and trade interconnections. 4. Rising Standards of Living Jobs created by MNCs, along with affordable goods, enhance purchasing power and lifestyles in host countries. 5. Stimulation of Competition MNC entry often forces domestic firms to innovate, improve efficiency, and adopt international best practices. Negative Impacts of MNCs on Global Trading 1. Economic Dependence & Vulnerability Host nations may become overly dependent on MNCs for exports and employment. Example: Mexico’s reliance on U.S. auto firms makes its trade highly vulnerable to U.S. policy changes. 2. Unequal Power Relations MNCs sometimes exploit weak regulatory systems, extracting resources without fair returns to host nations. Oil and mining companies in Africa often face criticism for resource exploitation. 3. Cultural Homogenization Global brands replace local products, diluting cultural uniqueness. McDonaldization or Coca-Colonization symbolizes cultural dominance. 4. Tax Avoidance & Profit Shifting MNCs use complex accounting methods to shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions. Example: Google and Apple have faced criticism for using tax havens. 5. Environmental Challenges Global production driven by MNCs often leads to pollution, deforestation, and carbon emissions. Fashion MNCs contribute significantly to fast fashion waste and water pollution. 6. Labor Exploitation MNCs are accused of paying low wages, unsafe working conditions, and exploiting cheap labor. Sweatshops in Southeast Asia producing garments for Western brands are prime examples. MNCs and the Future of Global Trade Digital Globalization: E-commerce, cloud services, and fintech expand trade without traditional borders. Geopolitical Tensions: U.S.-China trade war shows MNCs must adapt supply chains to political risks. Sustainability Pressure: ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) standards are pushing MNCs to adopt greener practices. Technological Disruption: AI, automation, and blockchain reshape trade operations, logistics, and transparency. Deglobalization Trends: Some countries are reshoring industries, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains. MNCs must balance globalization with localization strategies. Conclusion Multinational Corporations are at the heart of global trade. They are engines of growth, technology transfer, and cultural exchange, but they also raise questions about fairness, sustainability, and sovereignty. As global trading continues to evolve in the 21st century, MNCs will remain both drivers and disruptors. Their influence is likely to increase as technology erases borders, but they must balance profit with responsibility. Ultimately, the future of global trading will be shaped not only by governments and international institutions but also by the strategies, ethics, and adaptability of MNCs. Their choices will determine whether globalization leads to inclusive prosperity or deepening divides.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
4
EURUSD: gearing up for FOMCThe Non-farm payrolls annual revision showed a drop of -911K jobs. Analysts are noting that this is another indicator of a cooling US jobs market. The Producers price Index in August dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching 2,6% on a yearly basis. The core PPI also dropped by -0,1%. Both indicators were below market estimates of 0,3% for the month. The Inflation rate in August reached 0,4% for the month and 2,9% on a yearly basis. The core inflation remains a bit elevated at level of 0,3% for month and 3,1% y/y. Friday brought Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary figures for September at 51,8, which was a bit below forecasted 54,9. Inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4,8%. The ECB meeting was held during the previous week, where ECB members left interest rates unchanged. The Deposit Facility Rates held at 2%, while Marginal Lending Rate at 2,4%. This was in line with market expectations, considering external challenges for the EU economy, in terms of trade tariffs. The balance of trade in July in Germany reached euro 14,7B, another month with missed market expectations of euro 15,4B. The Industrial Production in July in Germany was higher by 1,3%, above market estimate of 1%. For the second week in a row, the eurusd currency pair was moving within a relatively short range. There were no surprises when the ECB interest rate decision was in question, so the market switched its attention to the forthcoming FOMC meeting. The trading range was between 1,1777 down to 1,1663. The RSI continues to oscillate around the 50 level, showing that the market is currently not heaving a clear path toward either side. The MA50 slowly started to converge toward the MA200, but the distance between lines shows that the potential cross is still not in store. As already mentioned, the week ahead brings the September FOMC meeting. This one is going to be especially significant, as the market is highly expecting to see the 25 bps cut. Usually , prior to meeting, market nervousness increases, in which sense, some increased volatility might be in store for the currency pair. Current charts are showing potential for a move toward both sides. On the lower grounds, there is potential for 1,1650 to be tested shortly, while on the opposite side, 1,1780 is waiting to be tested for a potential for higher grounds. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Wholesale Prices in Germany in August, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in September in Germany, Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in August, Producers Price Index in August in Germany. USD: Retail Sales in August, Building Permits preliminary for August, Housing Starts in August, FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, September 17th, with a press conference after the meeting.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
THE FED'S SECRET INDICATOR JUST FLASHED REDHERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Federal Reserve has sent a clear signal this week: financial market conditions are deteriorating. After months of relative calm at a level of -0.53, the index rose on Wednesday, triggering the first "Risk Off" signal in an extended period. For institutional investors and risk-conscious traders, this is a moment that deserves attention. The NFCI is not just another technical indicator. It represents the most comprehensive assessment of American financial market conditions available. Over 100 different data points flow into its calculation: from credit conditions to volatility measures to banking sector stress indicators. When this index rises, it means liquidity conditions are deteriorating, credit risks are increasing, and financial market stability is under pressure. The historical evidence is clear. Both in 2008 and 2020, NFCI increases warned weeks before major market crashes of deteriorating conditions. The strategy of building defensive positions during NFCI rises has proven its effectiveness over long periods. While it doesn't deliver the spectacular returns of a pure buy-and-hold approach, it offers something far more valuable: capital protection in critical moments. BASE CASE SCENARIO Our base case assumes that the current NFCI rise marks the beginning of a typical correction phase. Historical data shows that such signals typically anticipate market declines of 10 to 15 percent over a period of three to six months. The correction would be driven by a combination of tighter credit conditions, increased volatility, and diminishing investor risk appetite. In this scenario, we expect the S&P 500 to retreat from its current level of approximately 6,470 points to a level between 5,500 and 5,800 points. This would correspond to a decline of about 10 to 15 percent, equivalent to a normal, healthy correction in an otherwise intact bull market. Recovery would begin once the NFCI starts falling again, signaling that financial market conditions are relaxing. This scenario is supported by the fact that the American economy remains fundamentally robust. Unemployment is low, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve still has room for monetary policy support. A moderate decline would correct overvalued areas of the market without triggering a systemic crisis. WORST CASE SCENARIO The more pessimistic scenario considers the possibility that the current NFCI rise is the beginning of a more serious financial market disruption. In this case, the index could continue deteriorating and reach values historically associated with genuine financial crises. A sustained rise over several weeks, especially if the NFCI reaches positive values, would indicate systemic problems. In this scenario, we would have to expect a market decline of 25 to 40 percent extending over 12 to 18 months. The S&P 500 would fall to levels between 3,900 and 4,900 points in this case. Such movements typically arise from a combination of credit squeeze, liquidity shortages, and self-reinforcing selling spirals. The triggers for such a scenario could be diverse: an unexpected escalation of the geopolitical situation, the bursting of a speculation bubble in an important market segment, or a revaluation of credit risks in the banking sector. The worst-case scenario would also mean that the Federal Reserve would have to respond with aggressive measures, which in turn could lead to longer-term structural changes in monetary policy. POSITIONING STRATEGY Given these scenarios, a graduated defense strategy is appropriate. The first line of defense consists of reducing existing long positions and taking profits. This is particularly important for overvalued growth stocks that suffer disproportionately in correction phases. The second stage involves building direct hedging positions. Put options on the S&P 500 with maturities of three to six months offer cost-effective protection against larger declines. Strike prices between 10 and 20 percent below the current market level should be chosen to achieve a balanced ratio between costs and protective effect. For more aggressive traders, direct short positions are also available, but with strict risk management. Short positions should not exceed 5 to 10 percent of the total portfolio and must be closed immediately upon a reversal of the NFCI signal. TIMING AND EXIT STRATEGY Timing is crucial for NFCI-based strategies. The index is updated only once weekly, meaning signals don't immediately react to daily market movements. However, this is a feature, not a bug. The weekly frequency filters out market noise and focuses on substantial changes in financial market conditions. The exit strategy is as important as the entry. As soon as the NFCI begins falling again, defensive positions should be gradually reduced. A decline of the index below its previous low would represent a clear "Risk On" signal and justify building new long positions. It's particularly important not to try to catch the absolute bottom. The NFCI strategy is designed to capture the big moves, not to trade every small fluctuation. Patience and discipline are more important here than precision. The current NFCI rise is a warning signal that should be taken seriously. While we cannot predict with certainty whether we are at the beginning of a small correction or a larger bear market, the historical evidence justifies defensive positioning. The combination of profit-taking, hedging strategies, and increased liquidity provides the best possible protection against the uncertainties that may lie ahead. At a time when many investors are blinded by ongoing market euphoria, the NFCI reminds us that markets are cyclical and that caution is often the better part of valor. Those who position defensively today will have the flexibility tomorrow to act from a position of strength when better opportunities arise again.
SP:SPXShort
by EdgeTools
7
S&P500 Rising Wedge break-out imminent.Last week's (September 02, see chart below) buy signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 6530 Target, as the price reversed on its 4H MA200, which as we mentioned was the market's medium-term Support: Right now the index is supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of a Rising Wedge similar to the one at the start of the 4-month Channel Up. As you can see the symmetry between the two patterns is very high and the June break-out led to a +5.70% rise on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension before the next consolidation. A potential +5.70% rise from he recent 4H MA50 Low would now be at 6720 and that is our short-term Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
S&P 500 Outlook: Bearish Pullback While Under 6,634SPX500 – Technical Overview The S&P 500 recorded a new all-time high at 6,633 as markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week. Futures remain supported by expectations of a 25 bps cut, while traders await Powell’s commentary for guidance on inflation, labor-market weakness, and tariff risks. Monday’s rally to record highs was fueled by optimism around U.S.–China trade talks, strong tech performance, and fresh gains in gold and mining stocks. Technical Outlook 📉 Bearish correction: While price trades below 6,634, a near-term pullback is favored. Downside targets: 6,605 → 6,590, with deeper support at 6,571 if selling pressure accelerates. 📈 Bullish continuation: A confirmed 1H close above 6,634 would reassert bullish momentum. Next upside targets: 6,662 → 6,700. 📌 Market Context: The Fed’s meeting and Powell’s tone remain the primary catalysts. A dovish message or stronger-than-expected cut could fuel a breakout above 6,634 toward new highs, while a cautious or hawkish stance may encourage a deeper correction before the next bullish leg.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi