US500.F trade ideas
U.S. Macroeconomic DashboardThis is more of a cheatsheet/how-to for my own reference on my macro indicators charting layout. If the chart layout is helpful to the community, all the better! I find it useful for studying events and crises.
Indicators used: SPX, VIX, FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y, USIRYY + USCIR, UNRATE, USBCOI, BAMLH0A0HYM2, DXY
Row 1: Equity and volatility benchmarks
Row 2: Policy stance and inflation
Row 3: Unemployment and growth metrics
Row 4: Credit spreads and USD strength
SPX
Measuring : Equity benchmark
Relevance : Broadest market barometer
Observe : Trend direction, key levels, divergence vs other indicators
VIX
Measuring : Volatility index
Relevance : Market's implied volatility (read: "fear/greed gauge")
Observe : Spike --> risk-off, hedging demand; sustained lows --> complacency
FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y
Measuring : U.S. policy stance and yield curve
Relevance : Monetary tightening and loosening; yield curve recession slope
Observe : T10Y2Y curve inversion --> recession risk; bear steepening --> watch for inflation/deficit concerns; bull steepening --> Fed easing, recovery signal
USIRYY + USCIR
Measuring : Inflation
Relevance : Headline: all prices; Core: Excluding food + energy
Observe : Headline stat drives short-term moves. Core stat drives Fed policy
UNRATE
Measuring : Unemployment rate
Relevance : Labor market health (this is a lagging indicator)
Observe : Rising trend --> recession risk; very low --> possible overheating
USBCOI
Measuring : Manufacturing PMI; Business activity
Relevance : Leading growth indicator for manufacturing, services
Observe : >50 means expansion, <50 means contraction
BAMLH0A0HYM2
Measuring : U.S. High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (the extra yield/spread investors demand to hold junk bonds vs risk-free Treasuries)
Relevance : Stress in corporate bond markets; risk sentiment
Observe : Widening --> investors demand more compensation for credit risk; narrowing --> investors are confident, low fear of defaults. 2-4 is normal, 4-6 is stressed, 6+ is distress, 10+ is crisis level
DXY
Measuring : USD strength
Relevance : Global liquidity, capital flows, financial conditions
Observe : Strong USD = tighter conditions and pressure on risk assets; inverse for weak USD
Rare Earth Metals & Geopolitical ImportanceIntroduction
In the 21st century, natural resources continue to shape geopolitics, economic power, and technological advancement. Just as oil defined much of the 20th century’s geopolitical struggles, rare earth metals (REMs) are increasingly being seen as the strategic resource of the digital and green-energy era. These 17 chemically similar elements—scattered in nature yet crucial for modern technologies—have become central to industries ranging from defense systems and electronics to renewable energy and electric mobility.
The geopolitical importance of rare earth metals arises from their scarcity in economically viable concentrations, their critical role in high-tech applications, and the fact that global production is highly concentrated in a few countries, particularly China. This combination of economic necessity and strategic vulnerability makes rare earth metals one of the most contested resources of our time.
This essay explores the science, applications, production dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and future outlook of rare earth metals. By the end, it becomes clear why these “hidden metals” are at the heart of modern geopolitics.
1. Understanding Rare Earth Metals
1.1 What Are Rare Earth Metals?
Rare earth metals are a group of 17 elements on the periodic table, specifically the 15 lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium. Despite their name, they are not particularly rare in the Earth’s crust. In fact, elements such as cerium are more abundant than copper. What makes them “rare” is that they are rarely found in concentrated, economically minable deposits. Extracting them is technically challenging and environmentally damaging, making supply chains vulnerable.
1.2 Types of Rare Earth Elements
They are typically divided into two categories:
Light Rare Earth Elements (LREEs): Lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, promethium, and samarium.
Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREEs): Europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium, plus yttrium.
HREEs are generally scarcer and more geopolitically significant because they are harder to find and extract.
1.3 Properties That Make Them Critical
Rare earths have unique magnetic, luminescent, and electrochemical properties. For example:
Neodymium produces powerful permanent magnets.
Europium provides the red color in LED and display technologies.
Dysprosium improves magnet performance at high temperatures.
Lanthanum is used in camera lenses and batteries.
Such applications make them essential in modern life, often irreplaceable.
2. Strategic Applications of Rare Earth Metals
2.1 Consumer Electronics
Smartphones, laptops, tablets, and televisions rely heavily on rare earths. A smartphone alone may contain up to 8–10 different rare earth elements for screens, vibration motors, and microelectronics.
2.2 Renewable Energy
Wind turbines: Use large amounts of neodymium and dysprosium in permanent magnets.
Solar panels: Depend on cerium and europium for polishing glass and improving efficiency.
Electric vehicles (EVs): Motors require neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium.
The global push toward net-zero emissions is driving up rare earth demand exponentially.
2.3 Defense and Aerospace
Rare earths are essential in defense systems:
Jet engines (yttrium, europium)
Precision-guided munitions (neodymium magnets)
Communication systems
Radar and sonar technology
The U.S. Department of Defense considers them critical for national security.
2.4 Medical Technologies
MRI machines, X-ray intensifiers, and other diagnostic devices rely on rare earths such as gadolinium.
2.5 Industrial Uses
Catalysts in oil refining, glass polishing, and metallurgy all depend on rare earths, making them indispensable for both civilian and industrial economies.
3. Global Production and Supply Chain
3.1 China’s Dominance
China is the world’s largest producer of rare earths, accounting for 60–70% of global production and nearly 85–90% of processing capacity. This dominance emerged in the 1990s when China deliberately underpriced rare earth exports, forcing competitors in the U.S. and elsewhere to shut down due to environmental costs and unprofitability.
By controlling not just mining but also refining and manufacturing, China has become the hub of the rare earth supply chain.
3.2 Other Producers
United States: Mountain Pass mine in California is the largest rare earth mine outside China but depends on China for refining.
Australia: Lynas Corporation is a major non-Chinese producer.
India, Russia, Myanmar, and Brazil also contribute but at smaller scales.
3.3 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Mining rare earths is only the first step. Refining and separation are highly complex, and China’s near-monopoly over processing makes the global supply chain fragile. Disruptions in China could impact industries worldwide, from EVs to defense systems.
4. Environmental and Social Implications
4.1 Environmental Damage
Rare earth mining is associated with severe environmental impacts:
Radioactive waste (thorium and uranium traces).
Water pollution from acid leaching.
Deforestation and land degradation.
China’s Baotou region, a hub for rare earth mining, has been heavily polluted, leading to health and ecological crises.
4.2 Local Community Impact
Communities around rare earth mines face displacement, water scarcity, and long-term health risks. Balancing demand with sustainable mining practices remains a global challenge.
5. Geopolitical Importance
5.1 Rare Earths as a Strategic Resource
Like oil in the 20th century, rare earths are now “strategic resources.” Countries reliant on imports are vulnerable to supply disruptions, price manipulation, and geopolitical bargaining.
5.2 China’s Leverage
China has used rare earths as a geopolitical tool:
In 2010, China restricted exports to Japan amid territorial disputes, crippling Japan’s high-tech industry temporarily.
China has hinted at restricting supply to the U.S. during trade tensions.
Such actions demonstrate how resource control translates into geopolitical influence.
5.3 U.S. and Western Response
The U.S., EU, Japan, and Australia have launched initiatives to reduce dependency on China. These include:
Strategic stockpiling of rare earths.
New mining projects in Africa, Greenland, and Australia.
Research into recycling and substitutes for rare earths.
However, creating a parallel supply chain is costly and time-consuming.
5.4 Role in Green Energy Transition
As nations push for renewable energy and electric vehicles, rare earths are becoming central to climate policy. This adds another layer of geopolitical competition, as access to rare earths could determine leadership in green technology.
6. Emerging Geopolitical Trends
6.1 Resource Nationalism
Countries rich in rare earth deposits, such as Myanmar, Vietnam, and African nations, are increasingly asserting control. They see rare earths as a path to economic growth and geopolitical relevance.
6.2 Strategic Alliances
The Quad Alliance (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) has discussed collaboration in rare earth supply chains to counterbalance China. The EU is also exploring partnerships with African and Latin American producers.
6.3 Competition in the Arctic
Greenland has significant rare earth deposits. With melting ice making access easier, both China and Western nations are vying for influence in the Arctic region.
6.4 Technological Race
Nations are investing in R&D to find alternatives to rare earths or to improve recycling technologies. Whoever leads in this race could reduce dependence on geopolitically unstable supply chains.
7. Future Outlook
7.1 Demand Projections
The demand for rare earths is projected to triple by 2040, driven by:
Electric vehicles
Renewable energy installations
Advanced military technology
This means competition will intensify.
7.2 Recycling and Circular Economy
Recycling rare earths from e-waste and magnets offers a partial solution. However, technical and economic barriers remain significant.
7.3 Substitutes and Innovation
Some research is focused on developing magnet technologies that reduce reliance on rare earths. Success in this area could reshape the geopolitical importance of these elements.
7.4 Multipolar Supply Chains
Efforts by Australia, the U.S., and Europe to build alternative refining and mining operations could reduce China’s dominance over time, though it will take decades.
8. Case Studies
8.1 Japan’s Strategy Post-2010
After China restricted exports in 2010, Japan diversified its supply by investing in mines in Vietnam and Australia. It also accelerated recycling technologies, making Japan less vulnerable today.
8.2 U.S. Strategic Stockpiling
The U.S. Defense Production Act has been used to stockpile rare earths, particularly for defense applications, highlighting their importance in national security.
8.3 Africa as a Future Powerhouse
Countries like Malawi, Tanzania, and Madagascar hold significant deposits. China has already invested heavily in African mines, but Western nations are increasing their presence to secure supply.
9. Challenges Ahead
Balancing environmental concerns with rising demand.
Avoiding overdependence on a single producer nation.
Managing geopolitical rivalries without triggering resource wars.
Ensuring fair distribution of benefits for resource-rich but economically poor nations.
Conclusion
Rare earth metals are the invisible backbone of the digital, defense, and green revolutions. They may not dominate headlines like oil, but they are no less critical to global security and economic stability. Their importance lies not only in their industrial applications but also in the geopolitical leverage they confer upon producing nations.
As the world transitions toward renewable energy and advanced technologies, rare earths will become even more strategic. The competition over access, processing, and innovation will define geopolitical alignments in the coming decades. Nations that secure stable supply chains and invest in sustainable alternatives will gain a decisive advantage in the 21st-century global order.
In many ways, rare earths are the new oil—quietly powering economies, shaping foreign policies, and fueling the next era of great power competition.
SPX – Dovish Fed, Negative Liquidity, and the Next TriggerThe S&P 500 sits near 6,435, holding steady at highs while the liquidity backdrop remains negative. This divergence between price and plumbing sets up the next major move.
Macro backdrop:
The Advanced Fed Model (AFDFM) signals a dovish/easing regime, with moderate strength.
Liquidity, however, is still draining. Treasury’s cash account (TGA) remains elevated, while the Fed’s RRP facility continues to park trillions. Together, these offset easing policy tone.
Net liquidity (BML variation) = –2.14%, a headwind for equities.
Implication for SPX:
Liquidity and SPX correlation has weakened. Historically, that does not last long. Either liquidity improves, or price resets lower.
Key support sits at 6,350. A sustained break below would open 6,200.
On the upside, a liquidity turn (TGA drawdown + RRP decline) would support a breakout toward 6,500–6,550.
Conclusion / Trade View:
The market is balanced between a dovish Fed tone and restrictive liquidity mechanics. As long as SPX holds above 6,400, the structure favors upside, but liquidity needs to flip to sustain momentum. Watch for the next liquidity shift as the trigger.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
Food Security & Global Market PricesIntroduction
Food is the most fundamental human need, yet in the 21st century, billions of people still struggle with hunger, malnutrition, and unstable food access. At the same time, global markets heavily influence the price and availability of food commodities such as wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, and edible oils. The link between food security and global market prices has become one of the defining challenges of our era.
Food security, as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Achieving this requires stability in production, affordability of prices, resilience against shocks, and equitable distribution.
Global market prices, meanwhile, are shaped by international trade, supply-demand balances, speculation in commodity markets, climate events, geopolitical conflicts, and policy decisions such as subsidies or export bans. When prices spike, food insecurity rises—especially in poorer countries where households spend a large share of their income on food.
This essay explores the intricate relationship between food security and global market prices, examining causes, consequences, and policy responses.
Section 1: Understanding Food Security
Food security rests on four pillars:
Availability – Adequate supply of food from domestic production or imports.
Access – Economic and physical access, meaning people can afford and obtain food.
Utilization – Proper nutrition, safety, and absorption of food in the body.
Stability – Reliable supply and access over time, without major disruptions.
Food insecurity emerges when any of these pillars is weak. For instance:
A drought may reduce availability.
Rising global prices can weaken access.
Poor sanitation or lack of dietary diversity can affect utilization.
Wars, conflicts, or pandemics disrupt stability.
Section 2: The Role of Global Market Prices in Food Security
Global markets set benchmarks for staple foods. Prices in Chicago, Paris, or Singapore often determine what wheat, rice, or soybeans cost in Africa, South Asia, or Latin America.
Why Prices Matter for Food Security
High Prices = More Hunger
When global food prices rise, poorer households reduce consumption or switch to less nutritious diets.
FAO estimates that the 2007–08 food price crisis pushed more than 100 million people into hunger.
Low Prices = Farmer Distress
While high prices hurt consumers, very low prices can harm small farmers, reducing their incomes and discouraging future production.
This creates a cycle of poverty, migration, and reduced agricultural investment.
Price Volatility
Unpredictable swings are as harmful as high prices. Farmers cannot plan their crops, governments struggle with food subsidy budgets, and traders hoard supplies, worsening instability.
Section 3: Historical Food Price Crises
1. The 1970s Oil Shock & Food Prices
Oil price hikes raised fertilizer, transport, and irrigation costs, driving global food inflation.
2. 2007–2008 Global Food Price Crisis
Wheat, rice, and maize prices doubled or tripled due to biofuel demand, export bans, and speculation.
Riots broke out in more than 30 countries, including Haiti, Egypt, and Bangladesh.
3. 2010–2011 Price Surge (Arab Spring Trigger)
Poor harvests in Russia and Ukraine, coupled with droughts, drove wheat prices higher.
Food inflation was a key factor fueling protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and across the Arab world.
4. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2022)
Supply chain disruptions, export restrictions, and labor shortages pushed food prices up.
Millions of urban poor in developing countries were hit hardest.
5. Russia–Ukraine War (2022–present)
Ukraine and Russia supply 30% of global wheat exports, 20% of maize, and 75% of sunflower oil.
The war disrupted Black Sea trade routes, triggering a surge in global grain prices.
Section 4: Key Drivers of Global Market Prices
Supply & Demand Imbalances
Rising demand for meat (China, India) increases feed grain demand.
Population growth (expected to reach 10 billion by 2050) pressures supplies.
Climate Change & Extreme Weather
Droughts in Africa, floods in South Asia, and wildfires in North America reduce output.
El Niño and La Niña cycles influence rainfall and crop yields globally.
Energy Prices
Oil prices affect fertilizer, irrigation, and transport costs.
Biofuel policies (e.g., ethanol in the US, biodiesel in Europe) divert grains from food to fuel.
Trade Policies
Export bans (India on rice, Russia on wheat) reduce global supply and spike prices.
Import tariffs and quotas distort markets further.
Speculation & Financialization of Commodities
Hedge funds and institutional investors increasingly trade food futures.
While providing liquidity, speculation can amplify price swings.
Geopolitical Conflicts & Wars
War zones reduce production (Ukraine) or block exports.
Sanctions can disrupt fertilizer supplies (Russia-Belarus potash).
Section 5: Food Security Challenges in Different Regions
Africa
Heavy reliance on imported wheat and rice.
Vulnerable to global price shocks due to weak currencies.
Climate shocks (drought in Horn of Africa) worsen hunger.
Asia
India: major producer but also restricts exports during inflation.
China: massive food demand, maintains large reserves.
Southeast Asia: rice-dependent economies vulnerable to export bans.
Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
Highly import-dependent (over 50% of food).
Price shocks linked to political unrest (Arab Spring).
Latin America
A food-exporting region (Brazil, Argentina) but faces domestic food inflation.
Export crops often prioritized over local food needs.
Developed Countries
More resilient due to subsidies and safety nets.
Still vulnerable to rising food inflation, affecting lower-income households.
Section 6: Consequences of Rising Food Prices
Hunger & Malnutrition
Poor families spend 50–70% of income on food.
Rising prices mean reduced meals, more stunting in children.
Social Unrest & Political Instability
Food riots, protests, and revolutions often follow price spikes.
Economic Strain on Governments
Higher subsidy bills (India’s food subsidy crosses billions annually).
Pressure on foreign reserves for food-importing countries.
Migration & Refugee Crises
Hunger drives rural-to-urban migration and cross-border displacement.
Section 7: Policy Responses to Balance Food Security & Prices
Global Cooperation
WTO rules to prevent arbitrary export bans.
FAO-led initiatives for transparency in food markets.
National Policies
Price stabilization funds and buffer stocks.
Social safety nets: food stamps, cash transfers, subsidized food.
Investment in Agriculture
Modern farming, irrigation, storage, and logistics.
Encouraging climate-resilient crops.
Sustainable Practices
Reduce food waste (1/3 of global food is wasted).
Diversify crops to reduce reliance on wheat/rice/maize.
Regional Food Reserves
ASEAN rice reserve mechanism.
African Union initiatives for emergency grain stocks.
Private Sector & Technology
Precision farming, AI-driven yield forecasts.
E-commerce platforms improving farmer-market linkages.
Section 8: The Future – Can We Ensure Food Security Amid Price Volatility?
By 2050, food demand will rise by 60–70%.
Climate change could reduce yields by 10–25% in some regions.
Global interdependence means local crises (Ukraine war, Indian export bans) ripple worldwide.
The challenge is balancing farmer incomes, consumer affordability, and global stability.
Promising solutions include:
Climate-smart agriculture.
International grain reserves.
Digital platforms for real-time price transparency.
Stronger trade cooperation and less protectionism.
Conclusion
Food security is deeply tied to global market prices. When markets are stable and predictable, people eat well, farmers earn fair incomes, and societies remain peaceful. But when prices spike due to conflict, climate change, or speculation, millions are pushed into hunger and political instability rises.
The future demands a balanced approach—ensuring affordable food for consumers, fair returns for farmers, and resilience in supply chains. Global cooperation, sustainable practices, and smart technology will be central to ensuring that food security is not left hostage to market volatility.
In short: food is not just a commodity—it is a foundation of human survival, dignity, and global stability.
Consolidation before ATHThe S&P 500 will likely consolidate and correct slightly before the next leg up. A rally will probably start a day or two before the upcoming Fed meeting.
The correction could reach the 0.38 Fibonacci level maybe 0.5, meaning a maximum drop of around 10%.
The RSI indicates that the market needs to cool off, and the MACD shows a similar pattern.
However, the advance-decline line remains extremely bullish, with no signs of a major drop ahead.
S&P500 Strong buy signal if the 4H MA200 holds.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back since the August 28 All Time High (ATH) and is headed for a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test.
This is a major short-term buy point as since April 25, every contact with this trend-line (6 so far) resulted into a new rally/ Bullish Leg.
The last two in particular rose as high as the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. So as long as the 4H MA200 holds, that gives us a 6530 short-term Target.
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S&P 500 Under Pressure as Pivot 6,425 HoldsSPX500 – Overview
The index dropped nearly 500 points (~0.9%), in line with the previous outlook, and continues to face bearish pressure as long as it trades below the pivot at 6,425.
Technical Outlook:
🔻 Bearish scenario: While under 6,425, downside momentum remains intact toward 6,389 → 6,366.
🔺 Bullish scenario: A confirmed 1H close above 6,425 would shift momentum upward, targeting 6,442 → 6,468.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,425
Support: 6,389 – 6,366
Resistance: 6,442 – 6,468
Previous idea:
Bearish reversal setup?S&P500 (US500) has rejected off the pivot, which is a pullback resistance, and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 6,467.13
1st Resistance: 6,508.59
1st Support: 6,425.16
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
$SPX Trading Range for 9.2.25
Tomorrow’s Trading range looks fun. All of Friday’s candle’s were red, and we have the 35EMA as resistance. Under that we have the 30min 200MA so definitely keep an eye out for that, it is still facing up so it should offer some support - even if just for a technical bounce, and under that all the way at the bottom of the trading range, even underneath the implied moves for the next two days is the 1hr 200MA
At the top of the trading range we have a bear gap just under ATH’s.
Let me know how you plan to trade this. Let’s make some money.
Very Important TrendlineWatch the S&P 500 (SPX) rising trendline from the 05/23/25 bottom. SPX has found support at this line three times, a break below it could trigger a rapid drop to at least 5,900.
Daily Stochastic has a bearish divergence at its all-time high and a bearish line cross.
RSI has a double bearish divergence off its late July peak and has crossed below its moving average line.
The Fibonacci .382 retrace of the April to August rally is at 5,871, broader support zone is 5,930 to 5,780.
U.S. stocks are seasonally bearish from August to October.
September is statistically the most bearish month.
SPX500 Slips Ahead of Key Inflation Data (PCE Report in Focus)SPX500 – Overview
Wall Street Slips Ahead of Key Inflation Data
U.S. stock indices fell on Friday as traders turned cautious ahead of the PCE inflation report, a key release that could shape the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision. Market sentiment remains highly sensitive to incoming data.
🔹 Technical Outlook
The index is expected to pull back from 6,485 toward 6,468.
✅ A confirmed 1H close below 6,468 would extend the bearish move toward 6,447 → 6,425.
⚠️ However, if price stabilizes above 6,486 (1H/4H close), bullish momentum would resume, with upside targets at 6,506 → 6,528.
🔹 Key Levels
Support: 6,468 – 6,447 – 6,425
Resistance: 6,506 – 6,528
✅ Summary:
SPX500 is consolidating just below resistance as markets await the PCE inflation release. A break below 6,468 would confirm bearish continuation, while holding above 6,486 would reignite bullish momentum.
SPX: NVIDIA shines; Jobs data aheadThe optimism on the US equity markets continued through the week, where the S&P 500 managed to achieve another all-time highest level this year, at 6.507. Friday brought some profit taking, where the index slipped by 0,64%, ending the week at 6.460. Some of the most important US macro data included the PCE, which was in line with market expectations at the level of 0,2% in July, while the second estimate of the GDP growth rate beat market expectations with 3,3% q/q, in relation to 3,0% estimated by market.
NVIDIA was in the center of investors attention, due to the post of its quarterly results. The company delivered a standout second-quarter performance, with revenue soaring to $46.7 billion—up 56% year-over-year—driven largely by the AI-focused data-center segment, while also launching a massive $60 billion stock buyback program to return capital to shareholders. Despite the strong financials, the stock slid about 3% after hours, as investors voiced concerns around softer-than-expected data-center momentum and ongoing geopolitical exposure, particularly to China.
Although the market generally remains optimistic, it should be considered that the week ahead is bringing two currently important indicators. These are related to Non-farm payrolls and JOLTs Job Openings. In case that some indicator deviates from market expectations, it might trigger short term higher volatility on US equity markets
1929 to Present day Trendline Channels The chart represents some very meaningful and powerful trendlines.
I have magnetised these trend lines to be exactly on the peak of September 1929 and exactly on the peak March 2000.
I drew these lines to the high of day on the given peak days in Sep 1929 and March 2000, combined with a line extension.
(Meaning its not a manual placement this is the exact trendline channel)
Trendline validation (how many times have we tagged it per month - it has also been tagged many more days):
August 1929
September 1929
March 2000
November 2024
December 2024
January 2025
February 2025
When you zoom in to our present year/months/weeks/days, you can see we tagged the trendline November 2024 to February 2025.
We have now broken above the trendline for July and August 2025.
You will also notice a middle trendline this support formed on the 1st of March 1937 and acted as resistance until it broke through on the 1st of May 1995 about the time when everyone had a home computer and windows 95.
This middle support held strong during the 2000-2003 dotcom crash
The middle support broke during the 2008 financial crisis.
However it regained its support in 2013 and then tagging it in the 2020 covid crash.
Over nearly 100 years these channels have remained strong, it is honestly crazy to think we have now broken a 96 year old trendline in 2025.
The question is does this trendline become support or resistance?