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U.S. Dollar / Australian Dollar

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AUDUSD – Wave Analysis OutlookAUDUSD continues to unfold within a broad corrective structure, and current price action leaves room for two key scenarios. Primary View (Blue W–X–Y): The recent swings suggest the pair is developing a W–X–Y corrective pattern in blue. If this count holds, price could extend higher toward the 0.6750 – 0.6800 region, which aligns with Fibonacci projections where the correction may eventually complete before the broader downtrend resumes. Alternative View (Expanding Triangle in Wave X): Another possibility is that wave X is evolving into an expanding triangle. In this case, price may continue to alternate in wider swings (A–B–C–D–E) before breaking out into the next leg. The triangle invalidation level sits at 0.6417—a break below this would negate the structure and open the door for further downside. 👉 For now, I’ll be watching for buy setups if price consolidates at current levels, targeting the higher Fibonacci zones (0.6750–0.6800). ⚠️ Disclaimer: This outlook is based on my personal wave analysis and shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Long
by saravanarm
1
AUD/USD Ready for a Short Squeeze? COT Divergence Signals1. Retail Sentiment 73% of retail traders are short versus 27% long. Such an unbalanced positioning usually suggests short squeeze potential, as the market often moves against retail flows, especially when technical levels confirm the bias. 2. COT Report USD Index: Non-Commercials remain skewed to the short side (+18.6k short vs. +13.6k long), with a slight reduction. This indicates the dollar is losing part of its net strength. AUD Futures: Non-Commercials are heavily short (112k vs. 29k long), adding –16,930 new shorts. However, Commercials (hedgers) increased their longs (+11,908). Historically, commercials are more accurate at market turning points. This divergence may point to a bottom forming in AUD. 3. Seasonality (September) September has historically been neutral to slightly negative for AUD/USD: flat performance over 20 years, and weaker over the last 5 years. However, mid-to-late September seasonality stabilizes, setting the stage for an October recovery. Bearish pressure may start fading, leaving room for upside. 4. Technical Outlook Demand Zone: 0.6450–0.6500 has repeatedly rejected price, confirming strong support. Supply Zone: 0.6650–0.6700, recently tested, represents the first upside target. Structure: Price is printing higher lows and showing signs of a potential bullish structure shift. RSI is neutral, with no overbought signals. Possible Scenario: A short pullback into 0.6520–0.6540 before accelerating toward 0.6680–0.6700. 5. Trading Summary Bias: Moderately bullish in the short-to-medium term. Key Drivers: Extreme retail short positioning → potential squeeze. COT divergence (specs heavily short, commercials long) → possible bottom. Weak but improving seasonality. Technical structure favoring upside continuation. 👉 Bottom line: AUD/USD favors long setups, but heavy Non-Commercial short exposure implies volatility could remain elevated.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
AUD/USD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT Hello, Friends! AUD/USD pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 6H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 0.658 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
2
Will AUDUSD Continue To Gain On The Theme of a Fed Cut?Fundamental approach: - AUDUSD edged higher this week amid a softer US dollar. Aug US CPI came in slightly hot but reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut. RBA policy remained steady following Aug’s cut and a data‑dependent stance. - US dollar moves were driven by Aug inflation at 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY, and a labor market picture softened by benchmark revisions, keeping markets positioned for a Sep Fed easing, which weighed on the greenback. - Australian policy settings stayed unchanged after the Aug RBA cut to 3.60%, and officials reiterated data dependence, limiting AUD-specific surprises. Risk sentiment improved after the CPI release, adding modest support to pro‑cyclical currencies. - AUDUSD could gain if the Fed delivers a dovish cut and US data cools further. Next week’s Fed decision and any RBA communications on the release schedule are the key catalysts to watch. Technical approach: - AUDUSD broke the ley level at around 0.6600 and rose higher. The price is well above both diverging EMAs, indicating a bullish structure. - If AUDUSD continues to rise, it may retest the resistance at around 0.6700. - On the contrary, struggling to close above 0.6700 may prompt a correction to restest the support at 0.6600. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
AUD/USD – Upward Channel Weakness | Possible Reversal SetupAUD/USD has been moving inside a clear upward channel on the 2H timeframe. Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) patterns confirm short-term bullish momentum. Currently, price is testing the upper boundary of the channel, where rejection signs are visible. If the structure holds, we may see a short-term pullback toward the lower channel support and demand zones around 0.6560 – 0.6480. Structure: Upward channel in play BOS + CHoCH confirm shifts in momentum Watch for bearish rejection near resistance First support: 0.6560 | Second support: 0.6480 This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk before entering any trade.
Short
by ProfitMagnet-Pro
4
AUD/USD at Key Resistance – Breakout or Rejection Ahead?AUD/USD is currently consolidating around the 0.6600 zone, testing a key descending trendline resistance near 0.6619 – 0.6625, which is also marked as a weak high. The price has shown both bullish and bearish structures in recent sessions, but a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern indicates buying pressure building up. If bulls manage to break and sustain above 0.6619, momentum could carry the pair towards 0.6647 and possibly higher. On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6590, while a stronger demand zone is seen at 0.6573 – 0.6582. A failure to hold above these levels would expose the pair to a deeper correction towards 0.6546. Overall, the pair remains at a critical juncture, where a breakout above resistance may fuel bullish momentum, while rejection could trigger fresh selling pressure. 📌 Key Levels to Watch - Immediate Resistance: 0.6619 – 0.6647 - Immediate Support: 0.6590 – 0.6573 🚀 Buy Zone and Trigger Buy Zone: 0.6590 – 0.6592 Buy Trigger A clean break and 30m candle close above 0.6619 (weak high + trendline resistance) will be the buy trigger. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Long
by SibiSh
AUD/USD touches new ten-month highAUD/USD knocked into another new ten-month peak yesterday, clocking in an intraday peak above 0.6650 for the first time since last November. The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose around three-quarters of one percent against the US Dollar (USD) for the day, bringing its latest bullish swing from its last swing low to nearly 4%. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose again in August, with headline CPI inflation rising to 2.9% YoY, while core CPI inflation held steady at 3.1% YoY. US money markets have fully priced in three quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the end of the year. The Fed is broadly expected to deliver an initial 25 bps rate cut at its rate meeting next week, with two more rate cuts fully priced in for the October and December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The AUD/USD is bullish in the near-term, with the 4-hour chart showing a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) attracting buyers on dips. The SMA currently stands at around 0.6600. . The pair peaked at 0.6635 earlier this week, the immediate resistance level. Further advances expose the 0.6670 area en route to the 0.6700 mark. Support below the 0.6590 intraday low surges at 0.6550.
Long
by Blueberry
AUDUSD – Testing Key ResistanceAUDUSD has extended its recovery from the 0.6420 channel base and is now testing a significant resistance band at 0.6660. The breakout from the channel has underpinned a constructive near-term bias, but price action is showing signs of fatigue as it approaches prior supply. We see limited risk-reward in chasing longs at current levels. A rejection from resistance would open scope for a corrective pullback toward 0.6450. Conversely, a sustained defense of that zone would provide the platform for another test of 0.6660. A clear break above would re-establish upside momentum, whereas repeated failure would likely tilt near-term flows back toward sellers. Overall, AUDUSD sits at an inflection point, with positioning now sensitive to headline risk and broader USD dynamics.
Short
by radhiohead
AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 11 September 2025 - AUDUSD broke resistance area - Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6700 AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance area located at the intersection of the pivotal resistance level 0.6620 (former monthly high from July) and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from May. The breakout of this resistance area continues the active impulse wave c, which belongs to the ABC correction 2 from April. Given the strong daily uptrend and bearish US dollar sentiment, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6700 (target for the completion of wave 2).
Long
by FxPro
AUDUSD Daily Forecast Q3 | W37 | D11| Y25📅 Q3 | W37 | D11| Y25 📊 AUDUSD Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀
by JCFRGNT