USDTRY- NEUTRAl down side biasYes, I know, it feels like a weekly change of direction. The issue really is, there is a clear cap that can be observed even when the DXY moves up dramatically, whilst the USDTRY only seems to increase slightly. The regulators inclusion of 10% of foreign deposits to be converted to TRY before 15 April 2022, and if not, a penalty will apply. Further, it does not add to the reserve requirements, is if indeed correctly understood, a capital restrictive action.
The cost-of-carry is expensive no doubt makes being long not that easy. Even my side, I will liquidate, but only minor cost since I use very small leverage for this pair at all times. So not a big issue here. I can understand those trading larger amounts, it to be a paining experience.
Very sorry, but now stochastic starting to turn negative, and we have the strong 14.23-14.28 resistance, and our medium-term to long-term objective has not been met yet, as these charts are still very overbought.
I am neutral stance now, and for those preferred to hang in their shorts or a fresh SELL position, likely selling current 13.45-13.55 is fine for now and keep stop back to 14.35 (as per some weeks ago idea I had). Objective 11.80 - 10.50.