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USSP500CFD trade ideas
2h timeframe (SPCFD index, looks like US500 / S&P CFD).This is a 2h timeframe (SPCFD index, looks like US500 / S&P CFD).
Current price is around 6,403.
I have drawn a falling trendline from July, and price is now near the lower zone.
There’s also volume profile (VPVR) on the right side, showing key liquidity zones.
A target point is marked below, around the 6,200 level.
📌 Target Zone:
My chart suggests a downside target around 6,200 (highlighted with the blue arrow).
⚠ Notes:
If 6,400 support breaks clearly, sellers may push toward 6,300 → 6,200.
But if price reclaims above 6,480–6,500, the short-term bearish setup could fail, and we may see a bounce.
👉 Immediate target: 6,200
👉 Stop-loss to watch (invalidating short): above 6,500
S&P 500 to 7000 over the next 60 daysYeT another contrarian idea as so many on the platform publish S&P 500 “short” positions. Just as with the NASDAQ 100 idea, many paper hands were flushed out of the market earlier in the year. Now they wait with cash as the market grinds higher. Others throwing themselves into Put options.
What next? First the basic question trend and support/resistance.
The Trend
Higher lows have been printed consistently since the April sell off. The trend is up.
Support & Resistance
Look left. Multiple levels of past resistance now confirm as support (blue arrows). How is it possible to be bearish?
Sentiment
As with the NASDAQ 100 idea, much of the retail market maintains a short bias with the Put/Call ratio far into the bearish territory. Historically, when put/call ratios spike above extreme levels, the S&P 500 rallies for weeks to months after.
Why 7000?
The breakout above the prior all time high of 6150 sent the market into price discovery. Selling pressure is largely absent with the April flush out leaving Wave 5 to develop. The uptrend channel will now not find resistance until the upper side of the channel, which is conveniently enough the Fibonacci 1.618 extension @ 7k.
Why 60 days?
Specifically this is a timeline defined by the US debt markets, which is for another post.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 climbs a wall of worry as confidence in the US markets evaporates. Loud bearish calls dominate the headlines, which is understandable. However the chart tells the real story: higher lows, confirmed supports, sentiment extremes, and extension forecasts all align with continuation.
A move to 7000 area is very probable, what the market has in store afterwards is perhaps the bigger story, which is for another time.
Is it possible for the market to correct to 6200 and below like many are calling for? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
THE FED'S SECRET INDICATOR JUST FLASHED REDHERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Federal Reserve has sent a clear signal this week: financial market conditions are deteriorating. After months of relative calm at a level of -0.53, the index rose on Wednesday, triggering the first "Risk Off" signal in an extended period. For institutional investors and risk-conscious traders, this is a moment that deserves attention.
The NFCI is not just another technical indicator. It represents the most comprehensive assessment of American financial market conditions available. Over 100 different data points flow into its calculation: from credit conditions to volatility measures to banking sector stress indicators. When this index rises, it means liquidity conditions are deteriorating, credit risks are increasing, and financial market stability is under pressure.
The historical evidence is clear. Both in 2008 and 2020, NFCI increases warned weeks before major market crashes of deteriorating conditions. The strategy of building defensive positions during NFCI rises has proven its effectiveness over long periods. While it doesn't deliver the spectacular returns of a pure buy-and-hold approach, it offers something far more valuable: capital protection in critical moments.
BASE CASE SCENARIO
Our base case assumes that the current NFCI rise marks the beginning of a typical correction phase. Historical data shows that such signals typically anticipate market declines of 10 to 15 percent over a period of three to six months. The correction would be driven by a combination of tighter credit conditions, increased volatility, and diminishing investor risk appetite.
In this scenario, we expect the S&P 500 to retreat from its current level of approximately 6,470 points to a level between 5,500 and 5,800 points. This would correspond to a decline of about 10 to 15 percent, equivalent to a normal, healthy correction in an otherwise intact bull market. Recovery would begin once the NFCI starts falling again, signaling that financial market conditions are relaxing.
This scenario is supported by the fact that the American economy remains fundamentally robust. Unemployment is low, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve still has room for monetary policy support. A moderate decline would correct overvalued areas of the market without triggering a systemic crisis.
WORST CASE SCENARIO
The more pessimistic scenario considers the possibility that the current NFCI rise is the beginning of a more serious financial market disruption. In this case, the index could continue deteriorating and reach values historically associated with genuine financial crises. A sustained rise over several weeks, especially if the NFCI reaches positive values, would indicate systemic problems.
In this scenario, we would have to expect a market decline of 25 to 40 percent extending over 12 to 18 months. The S&P 500 would fall to levels between 3,900 and 4,900 points in this case. Such movements typically arise from a combination of credit squeeze, liquidity shortages, and self-reinforcing selling spirals.
The triggers for such a scenario could be diverse: an unexpected escalation of the geopolitical situation, the bursting of a speculation bubble in an important market segment, or a revaluation of credit risks in the banking sector. The worst-case scenario would also mean that the Federal Reserve would have to respond with aggressive measures, which in turn could lead to longer-term structural changes in monetary policy.
POSITIONING STRATEGY
Given these scenarios, a graduated defense strategy is appropriate. The first line of defense consists of reducing existing long positions and taking profits. This is particularly important for overvalued growth stocks that suffer disproportionately in correction phases.
The second stage involves building direct hedging positions. Put options on the S&P 500 with maturities of three to six months offer cost-effective protection against larger declines. Strike prices between 10 and 20 percent below the current market level should be chosen to achieve a balanced ratio between costs and protective effect.
For more aggressive traders, direct short positions are also available, but with strict risk management. Short positions should not exceed 5 to 10 percent of the total portfolio and must be closed immediately upon a reversal of the NFCI signal.
TIMING AND EXIT STRATEGY
Timing is crucial for NFCI-based strategies. The index is updated only once weekly, meaning signals don't immediately react to daily market movements. However, this is a feature, not a bug. The weekly frequency filters out market noise and focuses on substantial changes in financial market conditions.
The exit strategy is as important as the entry. As soon as the NFCI begins falling again, defensive positions should be gradually reduced. A decline of the index below its previous low would represent a clear "Risk On" signal and justify building new long positions.
It's particularly important not to try to catch the absolute bottom. The NFCI strategy is designed to capture the big moves, not to trade every small fluctuation. Patience and discipline are more important here than precision.
The current NFCI rise is a warning signal that should be taken seriously. While we cannot predict with certainty whether we are at the beginning of a small correction or a larger bear market, the historical evidence justifies defensive positioning. The combination of profit-taking, hedging strategies, and increased liquidity provides the best possible protection against the uncertainties that may lie ahead.
At a time when many investors are blinded by ongoing market euphoria, the NFCI reminds us that markets are cyclical and that caution is often the better part of valor. Those who position defensively today will have the flexibility tomorrow to act from a position of strength when better opportunities arise again.
S&P500 | 100 year bullish channel | GTradingMethodHello Traders - Happy Monday!
I thought this was a very interesting perspective on S&P500.
What they don’t want you to see... 👀
The S&P has been moving inside a bullish channel for nearly 100 years (since 1925).
Right now, price is breaking out of that channel but is it fakeout?
If it’s a fakeout, the implications are huge: we could be looking at a 70% drop back to the bottom of the channel.
⚠️ Chart is on the monthly timeframe with a logarithmic scale.
What do you think — breakout or fakeout? Very keen to hear all your thoughts
#TradingLife
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6600.Colleagues, the main idea is still the upward movement in the impulse of the middle wave “5”.
Wave “4” is likely to take place, because the bulls need to gain strength to update the local maximum of 6512.
The most important thing here is that the target of 6600 is a round number, which is quite attractive for buyers and limit sellers.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SP500 Structure Shift: Sell Zone ActivatedHey Guys 👋
I’ve prepared an SP500 analysis for you. Since the market structure has shifted, I’ll be opening a sell position from my designated sell zone.
📌 Entry: 6,474.90
📌 Stop: 6,522.12
🎯 TP1: 6,459.79
🎯 TP2: 6,425.80
🎯 TP3: 6,371.54
RISK REWARD - 2,21
Every single like you send my way is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing these analyses. Big thanks to everyone supporting with a like 🙏
S&P 500 | Rising Wedge at Highs – April VWAP in FocusThe S&P 500 has been climbing inside a rising wedge pattern, often seen as a sign that momentum is slowing down. At the same time, the RSI is showing lower highs, which hints at weakening strength behind the move.
Right now, the market feels like it’s waiting for a spark. That spark could come from the macro side — whether it’s rising bond yields making stocks look less attractive, political and trade policy uncertainty shaking confidence, or fresh worries about how much longer central banks can keep rates high. Any of these could act as the trigger for a break.
If the wedge breaks to the downside, the first key area to watch is the anchored VWAP from the April lows. That level has the potential to act as a support zone, since it represents where buyers stepped back in during the last big turnaround after the tariff scare.
For now, it’s a case of patience and levels: wedge support on the downside, VWAP from April as the bigger decision point.
Powell cutting rates? But why would he?📉 Powell cutting rates? 100% priced in. Even talk of 1–2% slashes. But why would he?
Let’s look at what the media ignores:
🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company.
Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse.
The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged.
So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing.
The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
SPX500USD is still going up slowlyHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD finished the correction (Flat) and went up again just as I've said in previous outlook.
Price is not very impulsive. It looks like it forms an ending diagonal.
So next week we could see this pair slowly going up some more.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500: What Is the Chart Impact of the Fed on 09/17?The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 17, will be decisive for the trajectory of U.S. equity markets at the end of 2025. Depending on Jerome Powell’s choice, scenarios range from a stock market crash to a new all-time high, with more neutral consolidation phases in between. Five possible options emerge, each with specific implications for the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000, which I describe below.
First case: no pivot.
If the Fed decides to keep rates unchanged throughout 2025 due to overly resilient inflation, then the scenario is clearly bearish. The lack of monetary support would suffocate market momentum, triggering a 20–30% crash in the S&P 500, dropping it to between 4,800 and 5,000 points. The Russell 2000, more fragile and sensitive to the macroeconomic environment, would retreat toward its critical support zone of 1,600–1,700 points.
Second case: a limited technical pivot.
The Fed might opt for just one rate cut in September or October, justified by a temporary adjustment to the labor market. In this case, markets would not see it as a strong easing signal but rather as a circumstantial gesture. Result: the S&P 500 would decline toward the 6,000–6,100 area, with a parallel correction of the Russell 2000 around 2,000 points.
Third case: a real and healthy pivot.
This is the most favorable scenario for Wall Street. Disinflation is confirmed near 2%, employment remains under control, and the Fed initiates a genuine rate-cutting cycle starting in September or October. In this context, the underlying bullish trend would regain full strength: the S&P 500 would head toward 6,700–7,000 points, while the Russell 2000 would break out of its consolidation to surpass its November 2021 record.
Fourth case: an unhealthy pivot.
Here, the Fed cuts rates in a more fragile environment: inflation remains near 3%, but it is primarily labor market deterioration that drives the decision. Markets could still find support from lower credit costs. The S&P 500 would preserve its former record at 6,200 points and likely aim for 6,700 points. The Russell 2000, more sensitive to financing conditions, would fully benefit from this easing, also surpassing its 2021 high.
Fifth case: the emergency Fed Put.
Finally, in the darkest scenario, a shock to employment would trigger a brutal Fed intervention, with a “jumbo cut” and a series of rapid rate reductions. While this support might contain the recession, the immediate reaction would be a sharp drop: the S&P 500 would plunge into bear market territory before a potential recovery tied to monetary easing. The Russell 2000 would follow the same trajectory.
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Secular & Cyclical Bull & Bear MarketsSecular vs. Cyclical Bull & Bear Markets (S&P 500, 1921–Present)
Secular Market Cycles (long-term)
Secular Bull:
1921–1929
1949–1968
1982–2000
2013–Present
Secular Bear:
1929–1949
1968–1982
2000–2013
Cyclical Market Cycles (shorter-term swings inside secular trends)
Cyclical Bears: 1929–1932, 1937–1942, 1946–1949, 1956–1957, 1961–1962, 1966, 1968–1970, 1973–1974, 1976–1978, 1980–1982, 1987, 1990, 2000–2002, 2007–2009, 2020 (COVID), 2022.
Cyclical Bulls: 1932–1937, 1942–1946, 1949–1956, 1957–1961, 1962–1966, 1966–1968, 1970–1973, 1974–1976, 1978–1980, 1982–1987, 1987–1990, 1990–2000, 2002–2007, 2009–2020, 2020–2022, 2022–Present.
Key Takeaways
Secular Bulls tend to last ~13–15 years on average, delivering powerful long-term gains with multiple smaller cyclical corrections along the way.
Secular Bears last ~13–16 years, usually defined by sideways price action with sharp rallies and deep drawdowns, leaving investors flat or negative after inflation.
Cyclical Bulls average ~4–5 years, while Cyclical Bears average ~1–2 years.
The current secular bull began in 2013 after breaking out of the 2000–2013 range.
4h Retest and TargetThe S&P had broken above a point where sellers came in previously, but could not push price down, hence the consolidation where the red and green boxes are drawn. Price came back down, tested the previous consolidation area, buyers stepped in and price held. (Looking at the wick, it's possible to have entered and been stopped out, but as it moved back up, could've looked for a re-entry and stop below the wick)
Friday had its push up, consolidated, and so far on Monday has held its gains. If I were in at the retest area, this new consolidation area is where I'd put my stop and use previous all time highs as the target.
SPX - Is it topping or setting up a for another run up?I hang up my trader title this week as I have been whooped by poor decision making in a choppy market. But here are my scenarios I will watch as we go. I can't help to think we are topping, but also see we are still in a strong bull market; it just has been harder to swing trade the daily.
Scenarios I’m Watching
Upside Continuation:
Buyers hold above the shaded zone (6,440–6,481) and press higher along the uptrend. A clean push above 6,532 would open the door to new highs, with the trend remaining intact as long as higher lows continue.
Sideways Chop:
Price keeps oscillating above and below the 6,440–6,481 range. This would extend consolidation and could frustrate swing traders, but it would also allow moving averages to tighten then smooth out and set the stage for another leg higher.
Deeper Pullback:
If the shaded zone and uptrend line break, the next levels to watch are the 20 EMA (~6,430) and the 50 SMA (~6,355). A dip into this area could still be a normal pullback within an uptrend, especially if buyers step in quickly as they’ve done in recent weeks.
Bearish Roll-Over:
If neither the 20 EMA nor the 50 SMA hold, a breakdown toward ~6,200 is possible. While not a technical correction percentage-wise, it would feel significant for anyone who entered near recent highs.
Good time to get out of the MARKET (Too Heated)The market has never been this expensive and retailers are being the exit liquidity for whales / institutions. Almost like many people are just sitting a sipping away on an active volcano. The market could be jumping for a few days, but a rate cut confirms that the market is weak and needs a boost / help. Unfortunately, it's too little too late. Most macros show a clear sign of stress, which is not being reflected in the market (for now). Don't get too complacent...the VIX will spike at astronomical levels when the hammer falls. Best of luck!
S&P500 Rising Wedge break-out imminent.Last week's (September 02, see chart below) buy signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 6530 Target, as the price reversed on its 4H MA200, which as we mentioned was the market's medium-term Support:
Right now the index is supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is attempting to break above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of a Rising Wedge similar to the one at the start of the 4-month Channel Up.
As you can see the symmetry between the two patterns is very high and the June break-out led to a +5.70% rise on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension before the next consolidation. A potential +5.70% rise from he recent 4H MA50 Low would now be at 6720 and that is our short-term Target.
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S&P 500 Hits Record High Ahead of CPI ReportS&P 500 Hits Record High Ahead of CPI Report
Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released.
In anticipation of the figures, traders remain optimistic – the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high yesterday, climbing above 6,560 points.
The bullish sentiment is driven by:
→ Expectations of an interest rate cut in September, which is believed to provide a positive boost to the US economy (and increase corporate profits).
→ A sharp rally in Oracle (ORCL) shares. The company announced it had signed four multibillion-dollar contracts with three different clients.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500
On the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 index, the price continues to move within an ascending channel, shown in blue.
From a bearish perspective:
→ the price is near the upper boundary of the channel, which has acted as resistance for several weeks;
→ the RSI indicator is close to the overbought zone, which may discourage buyers from entering at higher prices;
→ yesterday’s candle had a long upper shadow (marked with an arrow), indicating increased selling pressure.
From a bullish perspective:
→ the local level of 6,520, after being broken, has switched from resistance to support;
→ in September, the price has followed a steep upward trajectory (marked with orange lines), with the lower line showing signs of support.
Taking this into account, we could assume that the market is in a short-term state of balance while awaiting the release of inflation data – arguably the key event of the week in the economic calendar.
Favourable figures could encourage the bulls to attempt a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel, lifting the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. Be prepared for spikes in volatility.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Econ: Warning SignsI don't usually cover fundamental landscape unless several key economic indicators and policies paint a picture of emerging trouble.
Jobs market collapse is real
The NFP print of 22K is a disaster, missing estimates by a wide margin.
Revisions are key: June was revised down to -13,000 jobs. This is the first negative print since 2020 and signals the slowdown began months ago.
The U6 rate jumping to 8.1% is a huge red flag. This includes part-time workers who want full-time jobs and those discouraged from looking. It shows significant underlying weakness the headline U3 rate hides.
Tariffs didn't work
The policy was supposed to boost US manufacturing and slash the trade deficit. The opposite is happening.
US Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for 6 straight months. Why? Tariffs on steel and aluminum have made input costs soar, crippling competitiveness.
The Goods Trade Deficit ballooned 22% in July to $103.6B. Imports rose nearly 6x faster than exports. This is a direct contradiction to the policy's goal and acts as a tax on consumers and businesses.
Stagflation Risk
Weak Growth + Persistent Inflation
Growth is stalling: Weak job creation, falling manufacturing output.
Inflation is sticky: While wages cooled slightly, prices remain high (as confirmed by consumers in Tennessee interviews).
🏛️ The Fed is now trapped. Cutting rates could fuel more inflation. Hiking rates would kill more jobs. There is no good exit.
Tourism: An estimated $80 billion in lost revenue is a massive hit. This has a multiplier effect, hurting local economies far beyond the initial number.
Energy: Cancelling near-complete renewable projects (like the RI wind farm) creates uncertainty and hurts long-term energy capacity planning.
Agriculture: Farmers in Arkansas and elsewhere are facing bankruptcy due to low prices, high costs from tariffs, and labor shortages. This is a repeat of the 2018 bailout scenario.
Three False Narratives:
"The Data is Wrong": Attacking the BLS methodology and promising upward revisions. This is shooting the messenger. The trend across multiple reports is clearly negative.
"Just Wait a Year": Claiming the benefits of the policies are just around the corner. This is a hope-based strategy, not data-driven.
"Look at Private Investment!": Pointing to vague, performative pledges from tech CEOs (like Zuckerberg's hot-mic "$600B" comment).
The current economic policies are:
Failing to achieve their stated goals.
Increasing costs for businesses and consumers.
Creating uncertainty that paralyzes investment.
Increasing the risk of a stagflationary environment.
The market has been resilient, but fundamentals are starting to crack.
What I'm Watching:
Next CPI and PCE prints for inflation persistence.
Next month's NFP for confirmation of the trend.
Fed rhetoric: If they would acknowledge the growth scare
S&P500 Strong buy signal if the 4H MA200 holds.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back since the August 28 All Time High (ATH) and is headed for a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test.
This is a major short-term buy point as since April 25, every contact with this trend-line (6 so far) resulted into a new rally/ Bullish Leg.
The last two in particular rose as high as the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. So as long as the 4H MA200 holds, that gives us a 6530 short-term Target.
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S&P500 | Daily rising wedge | GTradingMethodGood morning fellow traders,
S&P price action is tightening inside a rising wedge on the daily chart, with volume steadily dropping.
Rising wedges often signal potential reversals, but with CPI on deck, volatility could go either way.
My guess, price tests top of rising wedge, finds resistance and down we go - a long way down.
Keen to hear your thoughts on whether CPI is going to be a catalyst for a breakout or breakdown?
SPX: NVIDIA surging bets on Fed cutThe previous week on the US stock markets was marked with surprisingly low Non-farm payrolls data in August. Namely, only 22K new jobs were added to the US economy, while the market was expecting to see at least 75K. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4,3% in August from 4,2% posted for the previous month. These figures were a game changer when market sentiment is in question, so Friday was a quite volatile day. Namely, during the one day, the positive market sentiment pushed the S&P 500 to the historically highest level at 6.530, but the disappointing jobs data, reverted the optimism, so the index closed the week at 6.481. The slowing jobs market increased expectations that the Fed now has solid grounds to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September meeting.
The company Kraft Heinz was in the center of news during the previous week, after the announcement that the company will split into two, in a strategic move aimed at unlocking brand value. The split should finalize in the second half of 2026. Shares of the company rose by 1% on the news, however, it should be considered that the stocks lost around 21% over the past year. Another company that was discussed was Robinhood Markets, which will join the S&P 500 index before trading on September 22nd, in a milestone indicating growing mainstream acceptance of the fintech giant. The stocks of the company surged around 7,3% following the announcement.
Some higher volatility might be expected also in the coming period on the US stock markets. There are still both positive and negative drivers which are shaping market sentiment. In the week ahead the US August inflation data will be posted, which might bring some higher volatility in case that the figures are not in line with market expectations. For the moment, the easing jobs market in the US is providing a strong case for the rate cut in September.
SPX500 Holds Above 6,506 – Bulls Target 6,527/6,550SPX500 – Overview
The S&P 500 reached our target at 6,506 and is still pushing higher toward 6,527.
Technical Outlook:
📈 Bullish scenario: As long as price holds above 6,506, momentum is expected to continue toward 6,527 → 6,550.
📉 Bearish scenario: A confirmed 1H close below 6,506 would open the way to 6,490, with further downside risk toward 6,469.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 6,506
Resistance: 6,527 – 6,550
Support: 6,490 – 6,469
📌 Bias: Bullish while above 6,506; bearish momentum resumes only if price closes below this pivot.
previous idea: