FED pivots the stock market dumpsWe have 6 months at most to have a fun bullrun before the sea of red comesby MosDCA0
S&P consolidates near highsUS stock index futures came under selling pressure this morning. This followed yesterday’s lacklustre session which saw modest gains for all the majors. Equity markets appear to be consolidating ahead of tomorrow’s big announcements, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 holding close to all-time highs. So much now hinges on where the CPI comes in. The consensus expectation is that Headline CPI (including food and energy) will hold steady at 3.4% in May, unchanged from April’s update. If so, that will be below the recent highs of 3.7% from September and October, but still well above the 3% recorded last July, and way above the Fed’s own 2% target. If recent history is any guide, then there should be widespread relief even if CPI only matches expectations. But the next big test for markets comes just a few hours later when the Federal Reserve’s FOMC concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting. While the market doesn’t expect any change in the Fed Funds rate, investors will be anxious to see if there are any changes to the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the last release in March. The SEP shows what FOMC members are forecasting for GDP, unemployment, inflation and, crucially, the Fed Funds rate for this year and beyond. The ‘Dot Plot’ should provide clarity over the likelihood of rate cuts for the rest of this year. Crucially, do FOMC members expect to reduce rates by 25 or 50 basis points before year-end? And are there any members predicting a rate hike first? After this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, so market sentiment could shift quickly, depending on his outlook for the US economy, and on inflation in particular. By mid-afternoon, the S&P 500 had fallen further as had the Dow, while the mid-cap domestically focused Russell 2000 had lost over 1%. In contrast, the NASDAQ 100 was in positive territory. Apple, which is a constituent of the S&P, Dow and NASDAQ 100, was up 5% on news of its latest foray into AI. But it had an outsized positive effect on the NASDAQ 100 due to its weighting in the tech-heavy index. by TylerNorcross0
SPx500 FORECASTOverview: - Current Price: 5,348.8, down by 0.10% (-5.3 points). - Price Action: The index has been in a general uptrend, with some recent consolidation near the highs. Key Observations: 1. Trend: - The overall trend is bullish with higher highs and higher lows. - There has been significant upward movement in late May, followed by some consolidation and minor pullbacks in early June. 2. Recent Price Movement: - After reaching a high around 5356.8, the price has pulled back slightly and is currently consolidating just below this level. - The consolidation near the highs indicates a potential continuation pattern, suggesting that the market might be gathering strength for another move higher. 3. Bearish and Bullish Levels: - Resistance: The recent high around 5356.8 is acting as a resistance level. A breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum. - Support: The previous swing low around 5280.0 can be considered a key support level. If the price breaks below this level, it could indicate a potential trend reversal or a deeper correction. 4. Volume and Volatility: - The chart does not show volume, but the recent price action suggests that volatility has been relatively low in the consolidation phase. Traders will likely watch for an increase in volume accompanying a breakout or breakdown to confirm the move. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: - If the price breaks above the resistance at 5356.8 with strong momentum and volume, it could continue the uptrend, targeting new highs. - In this case, the next psychological levels to watch would be around 5400.0 and 5450.0. 2. Bearish Scenario: - If the price fails to break the resistance and falls below the recent consolidation low around 5280.0, it could signal the start of a correction. - In this scenario, the next support levels to watch would be around 5220.0 and 5200.0. 3. Sideways Movement: - The price could continue to consolidate between 5280.0 and 5356.8, indicating indecision in the market. - Traders might wait for a decisive breakout or breakdown from this range to determine the next significant move. Conclusion: The S&P 500 index is currently in a bullish trend with a consolidation phase near recent highs. A breakout above 5356.8 could continue the uptrend, while a breakdown below 5280.0 might lead to a correction. Traders should watch for volume and momentum to confirm any potential moves. Key Levels: Bullish Lines: 5377, 5405 Pivot Point: 5328.5 Bearish Line: 5300, 5251 by RojBarwari1
US500 SELLThe market is currently testing the current structure which is forming a divergence on the daily TF. Based on price action , the market is forming a reversal chart pattern on the 4HR TF. We could see sellers coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor. Shortby WiLLProsperForex0
Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.Educationby citsvarUpdated 0
Another 7 DTE on SPX opened todayThe legs: -5140 +5130 / -5395 +5405 Jun 11th New position is marked with the yellow lines, atm I still have open an SPX 7 DTE which I have now rolled twice and if price ends up within the confines of the first Iron Condor, that would be a break even trade. New trade details: Premium: $115 Fees: $7.13 Premium - Fees: $107.87 Capital allocated: $892.13 % gain on investment: 12.09%by leongabanUpdated 0
Sacred Trading In light of the recent Mercury retrograde cycle, we have observed significant market movements that align with key zones, suggesting potential reversal points. Let me clarify: while I acknowledge the historical correlations between planetary movements and events, I do not base my trading decisions on astrology, nor do I consider myself an astrologer. This analysis is simply a brief exploration of astrotrading over a two-day period, aimed at sharing my observations and experiences. Over the weekend, I studied various planetary constellations and noted that certain alignments seem to influence market reversals. The key constellations are: Sextiles (60°): Often indicate three peak patterns. Trines (120°): Suggest rectangular trendline patterns, typically flatter than 45°. Conjunctions (0°): May signal immediate reversals depending on the planets involved. Squares (90°): Typically align with 45° angle trendlines within a square. Oppositions (180°): Indicate the start of new planetary cycles. The most significant planetary influences include: Full Moon and New Moon phases Mercury transits and conjunctions Venus/Moon angles Mars/Moon alignments, which can cause market volatility, irritability (notably in the current cycle) Occasionally, Saturn, Jupiter, and Uranus can also have a reversing influence. This exploration is a homage to Mercury, the messenger of god, and an attempt to share insights with you guys.by Underlayer0
Simplicity is king, lolSome say Pitchfork is outdated and some say being simple is the key. This time I think this pitchfork and last nonfarm news' are duets pretty well, so something correction is coming.Shortby BtNd0
Dopamine rules the world I guess you heard about dopamine... and the only thing dopamine loves is more dopamine... In the graph below you can see how dopamine spikes work based on the new Dopamine celebrity mr Huberman tacticsplus.com So how the party started how it's going and how it might end. 1) Everything started with the Covid outbreak 2) Then the FED started buying financial assets 3) Government handed out free money to everyone 4) We had the first stage of the party where the majority of people havehad never played this game before (dopamine loves new dopamine sources aka the unexpected) and that's how we wen to Fun 1 phase, think of it as someone who has never drink and this was the first time he went onto a party and got drunk... and he liked it because it was something completely new in terms of dopamine rush 5)The next day (year) we had the return to the baseline happiness but quite above from where it started but hey what we said? dopamine loves dopamine and dopamine does not care where you get your dopamine from it only cares about MORE DOPAMINE 6)Now we are going again to the party but this time the amount dopamine we need to get to the same high or above is much higher... 7) we are waiting to see how it will work out What i understand from my small experience in markets is the following : markets love to move in the point of MAX PAIN and most of the money are lost in HYPERBOLAS why? 1) Shorts get squeezed forced to close their positions 2) Longs have FOMO and jump in the party at the very worst moment In that was both longs and shorts are losing... but hey who is winning? 1) Those who bought the return to baseline 2) Those who did not short yet and waited for the fun part 2 So in others terms whether you are a long player or short the key is to go contrarian from popular belief and be patient... ALL OF THE ABOVE ARE 101% IN MY IMAGINATION! THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE JUST SOME PHILOSOPHICAL THOUGHTS I WANTED TO SHARE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND NEVER FOLLOW OTHER PEOPLE'S ADVICE BLINDLY. by Philoslother0
Possible Buy Scenario for S&P500 todayThis is the buy scenario I'll be considering today. The chart speaks for itself, but if anyone requires more context I'd be glad to provide it. Keep it simple. Trade wisely.Longby 5stonesUpdated 0
SP500 WILL KEEP RISINGSP500 Is approaching main trend line and looks weak on smaller time frame. I think we will see a long squeeze that will make the price to drop, probably around 5340-5330. At this level i Will look for a long entry that may come later with the NFP. I think we will see new highs next week, after a flash crashLongby CryptoForexGem1
SPX - Mini Futures Given it's all markets factored in - not sure if tech analysis works here but.. Fib extension right? Keep it simple. Quick look at fib extension and levels look respected given support resistance. by hmaroudas0
US500, support confluence could built bullish momentumWe have a nice confluence of 1H and 4H support at S&P. I'm entering with a long position to potentially follow to new ATHs, if the market sentiment pick up the trend again.Longby KyreanUpdated 0
W pattern In SPX Daily.Fellow traders! We have a "W" or double bottom pattern on the daily in SPX Oanda. Call it what ever you want, I call it UP. Best we can to as traders is to confide in our charts and call out what you see. Right or wrong , as long as you are right 60% to 80% or higher you are making CASH $$$. Markets are by design to throw you around the room and for a loop from time to time so just be patient. Let's see if money is to be made with this pattern. 5404.5 to start. 5493 area if we break from 5404 area. Trade with patients and trade like a machine, not with emotion. Stick to a plan and set a stop behind your profits at all times. Use a parabolic sar or just below a 10ma as a line in the sand for a stop point. Best of luck in all your trades .Longby Trade-Farmer111
S&P 500, time to buy? where is the support for 1 day chartsTake noted the below is not an investment advise, bet at your own risk. I am solely not responsible for any of your loses in money or assets. The Current S&P 500 price is 4320.05 as of 24 September 2023. The S&P 500 have potential to drop to 3900 to 3850 range in the coming 1.5 months before the Fed's FOMC in November 2023. The price will hover between 4618.28 to about 3900 within this period. Potential strong tailwind is the pause of US Fed's rate hike this coming November 2023. This will drive and test the resistance level at 4618.28. If there is a breakout then the next level of weaker resistance based on the dynamic resistance will be at 4804.36. Potential strong headwind will drive the market to around 3900 because of higher rate for longer by Fed's US. If next 1.5 months down the road if there is other or fews strong headwinds appears then the price might breakout from 3900 and head lower to a weaker support at 3534.39. This is highly unlikely to happen withing next few months as the Fed's is data dependent and also depend of the next 6 months' data to say that they will maintain the Fed's funds rate for longer. Still I think is not clear at the moment that the Fed's need higher for longer for 2 years. 3900 is a very strong support level based on the 1-week chart of S&P 500. I would only start buying a little at 3900 and reassess for 2 to 3 weeks before buying more. Based on current market condition it is highly unlikely to get a low that surpasses last year October 2022 bottom. However, the future for a US recession is unclear currently as there is both camp of soft landing and a recession.Longby juntech8Updated 2
S&P 500 - fresh highs on the horizon?Yesterday saw another swingy session for US stock indices. All the majors began the day on the backfoot, but subsequently recovered their poise to end near their highs. They were all a touch firmer this morning, with the S&P 500 back above 5,300 in early trade. That places the index within 50 points, or 1%, of its record intra-day high from a fortnight ago. Could the last couple of weeks of pull-back and consolidation have provided the reset required ahead of a rally to take stock indices to fresh record highs? Maybe. But stock market volatility, as measured by the VIX, has also picked up a touch over the last fortnight. One interpretation is that it’s getting back to more normal levels after falling to lows last seen in 2018. Another is that May’s decline was a final downside blow-off ahead of a more protracted rally as the US stock market becomes a riskier place to invest. Perhaps we’ll get more clarity as the month progresses. Certainly, there’s plenty in June to influence market behaviour, with this week’s emphasis on the US employment outlook. Yesterday, the JOLTS Job Openings number fell to its lowest level in three years, having declined steadily since the summer of 2022. Today the ADP private payroll release came in weaker than expected. Then there’s the weekly Unemployment Claims tomorrow and the all-important Non-Farm Payroll numbers on Friday. Maintaining maximum employment is one half of the US Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, and all this data comes ahead of next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged with an upper bound of 5.50%. But the meeting also sees the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Here we’ll get an update on what individual FOMC members are forecasting for inflation, the Fed Funds, unemployment and economic growth for this year and beyond. This could provide the clearest insight on where interest rates may be by year-end.by TylerNorcross0
.382 retrace points to 5580 rally...?SP500 Short Term Bullish Update: Target 5550-5600 As of June 5th, 2024, I’m providing a short-term bullish update on the SP500 (ticker SPX). My expected rise is to the 5550-5600 range with a potential overshoot to 5400, which should be short-lived, assuming 5192 holds as support. Long-term, I remain bearish on the SP500, believing we are in a grand supercycle fifth of the highest degree. Key Points: Short-term bullish target: 5550-5600 Potential overshoot: 5400 (short-lived) Critical support: 5192 Long-term outlook: Bearish due to grand supercycle Longby candlestickninja0
S&P Cup and HandleOn Daily chart setup for S&P it seems to be a technical pattern emerging C&H which may lead S&P for the next leg to 5640-5700. Longby vickyddk0
S&P vs the Misery IndexMisery index. YoY inflation + high yield spread + unemployment. When it's above about 13-15, and/or when the market and the misery index move up in correlation, we tend to see a pullbackLongby Ben_1148x20
Trading PlanThere are lots of different theories and perspectives and setups. Layers and layers and layers. My trading plan/theory for the next week/month is to try to find a nice blow-off rally into all time highs before the real selling starts. Most people are deer-in-the-headlights unaware that we are on the brink of what is going to be a historic financial crisis. There are two ways we can go, I predict: 1) USD lives. Fed hikes rates, epic market collapse. But the cash stays alive. Maybe 5-10% inflation, not CPI I mean really, really what you're paying. The data is cooked and has been. Even the fed doesn't trust headline inflation numbers as it's been so skewed to make it look better... 2) USD dies. This is a cazier, but just as likely possibility. What happens: rupublicans (trump) wins election. Trump kicks the fed out of their role, US controls monetary policy. Set interest rates at 0%. Markets go to infinity as dollar collapses. Hyper-inflation, the USD dies. If 2021 USD is $1. Today it's $0.87. It'll go to 0.1 of those 2021 dollars. You'll buy $0.05 candies for a five dollar bill. The middle class is obliterated. Wallstreet buys all of the houses. We all rent. This is what the WEF predicts aka "the great reset" where the US Deficit is reset and your dollars go with it. Damnit hold gold! Especially if the republicans win. This has happened before, yes. The word "debase" means to put shit metals in gold coins to stretch them. They look mostly the same, but actually, your money is slowly becoming worthless. Now there isn't gold coins, it's literally monopoly money in your hand. Those bio-survival tickets can go to $0. It has happened before - look at Ray Dalio's book. www.amazon.ca He said "the things that surprised me the most were the things that never happened in my lifetime. They had happened before, just not in my lifetime." So he, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, went back through history to see the patters of the past to find where we are in the cycle. It ain't lookin' good if you are still believin' in the american dream. All the data that I need to know what's up has been delivered. I honesty don't trust the recent numbers. I feel like the US is lying to people about the realities of core inflation. Whatever way this goes, I'll win. I hope that you don't lose so that the "great reset" comes to fruition. I don't want that. by decklyndubs0
$SPX For the last 2 years, banks have fudded people in and out of the stock market. Aside from tail end picks - read NVDA - SP:SPX has still been chugging along. The next few months I believe we will begin to see sideways consolidation in the SP:SPX as it enters into a wave 4. Give the very short duration of wave 2, the summer months are poised to be challenging for the $SPX. Ultimately, I hold the belief that the final high is not in for the $SPX. Folks will just have to be able to whether the oncoming correction. What does this mean for the #crypto market? There are periods where #crypto and CRYPTOCAP:BTC decouple from traditional markets, this is only true because of wave structures. Ultimately if TradFi crashes - which I think it will sometime in 2025, the high beta plays like #cryptocurrency will go along with it. by Nology3000Updated 0