Ben_1148x2

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:LLY LLY looks like it will head lower. Support at the dotted lines on the composite index have marked bottoms, but failure has seen continuation. We have a break below the BB and LMACD roll over. ~784 and ~808 align to AVWAPs anchored to gaps and fib confluences. ~784 aligns with support on the volume profile.

Ben_1148x2

CRYPTO:FETUSD The volume-weighted moving average (VWMA) anchored to the October 2023 momentum breakout has acted as support. FET is now testing the Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) from the beginning of the December 2023 consolidation. When it cleared this AVWAP in February, it went on to make a 400% move to the March high. FET has also reclaimed its 21 VWMA and 200 SMA....

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

BTC's 18 month uptrend started w/ the inverted hammer on 1/9/23. Green AVWAPs tied to that candle have been great buying opportunities since. Including now we have 7 full rollovers in the composite index, followed by 5-22% drawdowns. 5 of these drawdown far enough to test one of those AVWAPs. Price is currently at the 0.786 retrace from the last test of the...

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

NASDAQ:ADBE recently retraced to support at the 0.786 fib from the move to the February high and then gapped up today on a positive earnings. This likely to begin a 5th wave up that could take months to play out, similar to what we saw in 2021. We can see several instances of it respecting key levels from 2021 fib retrace in the first two waves up in...

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

NASDAQ:ADBE recently retraced to support at the 0.786 fib from the move to the February high and then gapped up today on a positive earnings. This likely to begin a 5th wave up that could take months to play out, similar to what we saw in 2021. We can see several instances of it respecting key levels from 2021 fib retrace in the first two waves up in...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:ADBE recently retraced to support at the 0.786 fib from the move to the February high and then gapped up today on a positive earnings. This likely to begin a 5th wave up that could take months to play out, similar to what we saw in 2021. We can see several instances of it respecting key levels from 2021 fib retrace in the first two waves up in...

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

Bearish engulfing candle forming. Daily BB extending beyond the weekly, while KST is rolling over and the Chaikin oscillator remaining negative.

Ben_1148x2

This is a chart similar to one that Martin Pring published last month. This suggests that there is less likelihood that the Fed will need to cut rates in 2024.

Ben_1148x2

HOP looks like its fallen off of peoples radar. Daily BB extended below the weekly with nice follow through. Positive improvement on the KST and Chaikin oscillator. The blue AVWAP overhead is anchored to the July 2023 high and aligns to the 1.272 extension. It likely sees selling there, which would frustrate buyers that are looking for it to fill the 4/16 gap.

Ben_1148x2

Misery index. YoY inflation + high yield spread + unemployment. When it's above about 13-15, and/or when the market and the misery index move up in correlation, we tend to see a pullback

Ben_1148x2

If this cycle has had strong consistency in with the peaks and troughs in the US dollar index DXY, US treasury rate and price, and the S&P. The cycle uses the 2020 lows for DXY and a sine wave drawn between the August 2021 high for US10Y rates and the May 2022 low for US10Y rates. A Fib time zone is also drawn between the 2020 lows for DXY and zones 8 and 13...

Ben_1148x2

I really like the price structure that we're seeing from $INDEX:BTCUSD. The weekly KST and Chaikin signal remains intact, the daily chart shows promising pattern and trend, and the 4hr chart is showing a breakout. Weekly KST & Chaikin This chart uses the KST indicator in the middle, which combines multiple rates of change to identify momentum. On the bottom it...

Ben_1148x2

Real income is experiencing a steeper rate of change than real disposable income. This coupled with increased productivity and a declining quit rate is disinflationary, but frustrating for workers. This tends to translate to pessimistic economic outlook. Spending is slightly up to relatively flat while implied savings is decreasing. Don’t be surprised if we...

Ben_1148x2

Equities have the strongest short, intermediate, and long term trend. The trend for the US10yr has shown a bit of strength inf the short and medium term. Short term trends for Bitcoin and commodities are favorable, with some intermediate weakness. The DXY is bearish on short and intermediate timeframes. SP:SPX TVC:US10 COINBASE:BTCUSD TVC:DXY

Ben_1148x2

This weekly vs daily Bollinger band mean reversal system, confirmed with crossovers in the KST indicate that it's time to take profits in PG. Note that there is another Bollinger band applied to the Chaikin oscillator. The Chaikin falling with narrowing bands signals continued downward pressure.

Ben_1148x2

Business Outlook: If you aren't familiar, ARM Holdings ( NASDAQ:ARM ) is not a chip manufacturer. They design processor architecture for the next generation of devices. This might sound like a marketing line, but it's literally their business. They specialize in energy-efficient chip design to enable increased processing capability, catering to a range of...

Ben_1148x2

Round numbers have psychological importance to market participants. They often initially act as a barrier. Once cleared they can become support or... a distant location in the rearview mirror. For reference, notice LLY's consolidation below 600 and how it took off after clearing it. A full candle close above 800 implies continuation. The next area of interest for...

Ben_1148x2

Semiconductors have been strong performers and this period of the year has become increasingly strong for them from a seasonality perspective. AI is being described as one of the fastest adopted technologies of all time. So it's fascinating to see INTC continue to underperform all of its major cohorts in in the space.