Fed saying the peak rate 5% next year. imo this news -had- to accompany a 50bp hike or apes would have prematurely partied. I think the 4000% climb up to now was worse. They want to raise as much across 2023 as they rose in November 2022 alone. Of course there are layers of complexity here, but looking at the topical move here, I don't think its thats bad and...
So .. the word on the street is that the Fed *may* temper future hikes, but reversing course takes time, and that was during a less stressful macroeconomic and geopolitical climate. Reference 2015-16. US Dollar Index ( DXY ) logged 3 tops in 2 years before collapsing thru 2017. I've been DCA'ing into crypto for months occasionally. I try to buy during extreme...
Markets remain neutral to bearish bias on higher timeframes. In previous bear markets it took BTC around 11 months (330 days) to find a floor, once RSI bottomed. We are around 270 days currently. 330 days will land in Jan '23, but given the macro I would expect a longer bear market than in the past. Now saying this has a bearish to neutral bias.. note that it is...
The Dollar Index / $DXY continues it's month of weakness, since peaking at 114.8. The DXY is pricing in Fed comments and economic actions by the European and Asian markets. imo market participants are cautiously reentering, anticipating a soft pivot by the Fed in Q1.
To my crypto fam watching the US Dollar Index Did you notice we fell under the early September resistance? We are also retesting the 2022 fib level at 23.6. Would be nice to see it break down further to 107 and the 38.2 level. Increasing rumors of the Fed relaxing, and even pivoting. I have doubts about a pivot , but going a little quieter into the election...
Looking at Bitcoin's performance against the M2 Money Supply, we are looking at Bitcoin around $13k when measured in 2017 terms. You can interpret this in different ways but recommend you monitor it, and also monitor how it performs as supply drops. The macro is leading markets but demand in this range, whether you call it $19k or $13k, is consistent. If the...
Performance of major currencies against the US Dollar since March 2020. Some suggest the $DXY will reach 120 (historical precedence), but no one really knows. 120 is in the realm of possible. I suspect the rally continues until something breaks and the Fed relaxes. Even if inflation peaks, there will be additional hikes, and many of these competing currencies...
For those wondering about the crypto rally: The European Central Bank (ECB) finally raised rates meaningfully. On Thursday they announced a 75 bp interest rate rise, taking its benchmark deposit rate to 0.75%. In response USD / DXY fell several %, BTC and EURO rallied. In general: -DXY down = BTC and EURO up -DXY up = BTC and EURO down
I'm watching the Bitcoin support levels at the following prices, which would lead us to a higher low: ☙ $23.8k ☙ $23k ☙ $21.7k Losing $21.7k would be a breakdown in the uptrend market structure and lead to a retest of $20k, with the possibility of an extended drop into the teens. Assuming the uptrend remains intact, I'm looking for a retest of resistance...
Bitcoin's gap towards $28k remains our greatest challenge of the past month, with 3 rejections now. On the other hand, the support is rising and we remain over the 200w MA. If we retrace, I'm looking at $21k. If we breakout I'm looking to rally towards an eventual $28k test. This week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reporting may inject some short term...
Bitcoin challenging the 200w SMA. I suspect we'll drop below intraweek but close over it by Sunday. We will monitor potential impact from the USG visit to Taiwan and if tensions escalate we may see markets fearful. My hope overall is for a HL and push through the mid 20s gap. Failing that, look for support about every $1k down from $22.7k. If we see negative...
Call me crazy but I suspect -even if- this is a Bitcoin bear market bounce, we are destined to retest the upper range in the coming week(s). We have one good shakeout with the FOMC this week, before bulls have a chance to build momentum to rally a retest of the 20/ 21w MA band & November '21 resistance. Of course this isn't a guarantee and I'm just projecting...
Bitcoin value ranges Q421>now and for the past cycle. $20k-$28k-38k feel like the most attractive range to move between until the next bull market if the macro relaxes. Possibility of wicks into upper $40s but suspect it would be short lived. Below $17k is no-mans land but a lot of interest there now that fud is relaxing, otherwise $10k-12k worst case.
The Euro and US Dollar are on parity. I expect it can only get worse for the Euro given the energy crisis and slow moving European Central Bank. A reminder that a strong dollar is generally not good for equities or crypto markets. And a weak Euro is good for the US Dollar (as is evidenced here).
I feel like one of three things play out here: 1. We drop to retest around $20k before bouncing again 2. We break above the triangle in a fakeout and drop 3. We see a proper breakout and begin to rally towards the value range around $27k to $30k Confirmation of any scenario depends on price and volume following through. There is a lot of empty space before $28k...
Intermediate support at $17k-$19k, but it feels like there isn't much keeping us from testing lower if the macro or whales pressure us there. Many historical indicators are saying buy now and we are well into traditional oversold conditions where you get outsized returns. I think the best strategy is to continue to DCA & chill.
Watching the price action this week, $20k isn't well respected as a level but in the past month we respected $19k twice as a daily close. Note that the 30% + drops/targets are longer term, not implying we go there today. I currently DCA into spot positions every two weeks, but will DCA daily if we close below $19k (temporarily). If we drop to the "Giga Buy Zone"...
Bitcoin is slowly edging up from the $17k lows the other week. In my opinion the worst pain is over, and a return to sub $20k is possible but extreme drops unlikely; slow crabs up and down feel more likely in the near term. If the Fed doesn't get more aggressive with QT and rates (more than expected) and the ECB follows through on their own rate increases, we...