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Although we’ve seen an impressive bounce in recent trade, overall, the pressure remains on the downside with a lower top sought out ahead of 107.49 in favour of the next major downside extension below the recent yearly and multi-month low at 98.99. At this point, only a break back above 105.00 would delay this outlook and give reason for pause. Below 99.00 exposes ...
The market remains confined to an intense downtrend and is in the process of consolidating just off the recent +30-year low from July. Any rallies are classified as corrective ahead of what should be the next major break below 1.2800 and towards 1.2500. Only back above 1.3500 will take the immediate pressure off the downside and force a shift in the structure.
The broader downtrend remains firmly intact, with the recent topside failure above 1.1300 setting the stage for the next major downside extension towards 1.0900. Look for a fresh lower top in place at 1.1367, while ultimately, only a break back above this level delays the bearish outlook. Any rallies while below 1.1367 are classified as corrective.
Looking at the ...
The broader downtrend remains firmly intact, with the recent close back below the 100-DMA ending a period of corrective activity, setting the stage for the next major downside extension towards 1.0900. Intraday short positions can be entered below 1.11475. Only above 1.1428 negates the bearish outlook.
Looking at fundamentals, yesterday's round of softer ...
Further rise is still expected this week and break of 1.1086 resistance will target 1.1713. On the downside, below 1.0795 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0461 support.
Looking to buy EURJPY on subsequent pullback as downside should be limited to 132.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 129.90-134.59)
Momentum of the rebound from 1.4565 was relatively weak and the structure is somewhat corrective. Hence, we'd treat price actions from 1.4565 as developing into a consolidation/correction pattern only. Fall from 1.7190 is viewed as resuming the longer term down trend from 2.1161 and would target 1.3503 and below later.
At this point, we'd still expect rebound from just below minor support 1.08015 to extend higher for 1.1086 resistance
At this point, we'd still expect rebound from just below minor suport 1.08015 to extend higher for 1.1086 resistance
Initial outlook is neutral for the week but as the consolidation pattern from 180.36 has completed at 188.79, another fall is expected and break below 183.96 will target a test on 180.360.
AUD/USD's recovery from 0.7015 extended higher last week but lost momentum again after hitting 0.7384. Initial outlook is neutral this week. Overall, we're still viewing price actions from 0.6905 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, we'll expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8161 to 0.6905 at 0.7385 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. ...
Short term bottoming was confirmed last week at 0.6981 and the initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.7492 resistance.
Initial bias is neutral this week first. As long as 1.5335 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected. Break below 1.4894 support should target a test on 1.4565 low. However, decisive break of 1.5335 should confirm reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.
Initial outlook remains on the upside this week for 1.1086 resistance first. Break above will target 1.1713. The trend line resistance may bring consolidation above 1.1086. On the downside, below 1.0788 minor support will turn bias neutral first and will target 1.04610 again
The rebound form 0.7015 might still extend higher. But again, we're still viewing price actions from 0.6905 as a consolidation pattern. Below 0.7158 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7015 support first.
EUR/GBP stayed in tight range last week and outlook is unchanged. We stay cautious on strong support from 0.6935 to bring reversal. EUR/GBP might extend recent sideways pattern with another rising leg. Break above 0.7196 resistance will turn bias to the upside for 0.7492 to extend recent consolidation pattern.
USD/JPY stayed in tight range last week and the initial outlook stays neutral this week. As long as 122.21 support remains intact, further rise is mildly in favor for 125.27 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm up trend resumption. Nonetheless, break of 122.21 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper fall.
For the moment, outlook will stay bearish as long as 188.79 resistance holds even in case of recovery from the minor support zone. Current development indicates that the consolidation pattern from 180.36 has completed at 188.79. Deeper fall is expected for a test on 180.36 support.