Aps3

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Mean regression estimation engaged. Volume profile says $171. Mean regression says $168. Either way, if the broader market doesn’t do a quick turn around, we’ve got more to go.

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First support level met quite nicely. If Luna doesn’t hold this, then I’ll assume we are only beginning the C-wave of an ABC impulse. Next real support @$74.

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Buy strength in weak times. FTMUSD was up when the market was down, and is now printing a little consolidation. I’ve got a fair bit of this locked up in liquidity pools and staking, so up is good, but I make money either way. FTM is very easy to use, the network is fast, and cheap. I’m a fan.

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Ugly news for Solana holders if the market doesn't turn around. Mean regression will see SOLUSD pushing down towards $160 if the broader market doesn't pull it back up. Luckily, on-chain data shows plenty of room for a bull run, but the total market cap has taken a big hit from all the new COVID news.

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OK. Ugly market, let's do some bear counts. If the total movement for LUNAUSD has just finished the 5th leg of an elliott impulse, then we should be in some sort of corrective phase, not just due to the broader market. If so, my next support levels are $84.75 and $74.00

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UEC rebounded from the .5 Fibonacci retracement level after forming a convincing support level there. It spend the last few days trading sideways before closing above the next, .618. Between the low volume profile, the room in the RSI, and the convincing turn around, I have hope of closing these late January calls in the money.

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If this last couple days was the 3-4 of a 12345 elliott wave, then the retracement is occurring very close to fibonacci levels, as illustrated between the .236 and .382 levels. I drew the retracement as the 3-4 corrective leg of the 1234 of 5. Since this is price discovery I have sells of my longs at the various fibonacci levels up to .786.

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XTZUSD printed an inverse head and shoulders across its regression channel, and closed above both. FTMUSD did the same 2 days ago for a 25% run.

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UEC corrected to .5 of the original trend, and printed a nice elliott in doing so. If price is moving in an elliott corrective wave, I expect more downside. The next fibonacci would be $2.50, which would be quite depressing given my January in the money calls based on my view of the market fundamentals. However, it also appears to have found strong support at the...

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FTMUSD printed an inverse head and shoulders, inside the mean regression range, at the bottom of an ABC elliott following the previous 12345 uptrend. This leads me to believe FTMUSD has bottomed. I'd like to see it close outside the mean regression channel on the 1D to confirm. I have done my buys within this range, and have staked it into liquidity pools on...

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I can't help but feel ETHUSD is flashing us a bear trap. This lovely curling formation forming at the bottom of this pennant shows failing sell pressure. Based on my look at BTCUSD (still king), I see no reason to expect any particular downside. Imagine we continue to range within this current boring market, which if I'm looking at it through the lens of this...

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BTCUSD was printing this incredible fractal pattern, and I'll link the previous explanation below. However, it exited this pattern on the news of Evergrande and Omicron (sounds like a new avenger movie). So I've been looking at this pattern for mathematically linked similarities to determine if this means the fractal has moved to different time frames or dissolved...

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I'm analyzing the fractal pattern discussed in the linked idea below. The previous trend lasted 72 days before beginning the next wave. This pattern now has about 3 days to return to fractal before the pattern is invalidated. If I could draw your attention to the red box at bottom, this is the timeframe in play. If we see about 2 days that account for 15-20%...

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Wanted to do a post mortem and identify the trends and patterns that illustrate the crash. As most pro traders I know say "price is king", oscillators are nice amplifying information but price action is the most reliable way to identify the coming move. On 26 November BTCUSD sold off aggressively 10% in a few hours. Over the next 5 days it began to print a head...

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ETHUSD has left it's previous trend structure. Next support levels @ $3800 and $3500. Switching to dollar cost averaging. The BTC fear greed index is solidly in fear, and the PlanB S2F model is still valid until DEC 31. Glassnode NUPL and MVRV-Z BTC data indicates, based on previous 10 years, that there's plenty of headroom for a return to bull market. The 2017...

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BTCUSD is posting a fractal uptrend, that could also be charted as an Elliott Wave to my limited understand of a 12345 wave, of which we are in the 4th wave awaiting the 5th. Corresponding trends - 1. the overall uptrend was 80% (wave 1), and 75% (wave 2), with 5% of each other 2. the corresponding .5 fibonacci retracement for each from the high was a 35%...

Aps3 Updated 

A study of all the leverage flash crashes that have occurred this year lead me to believe this pattern is similar. I've studied the exchange data, and Coinbase Pro exchange buying surpassed selling by 4% while the foreign exchanges still bled. In addition, net flows show rather than a total liquidation to USD or stablecoins, alot of the bleeding in the market...

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Ouch. Bears win this round. Dollar cost averaging for a long hold is my next play.