Saw some comments calling the top and today's action, the start of the Much Expected Wave C. I was looking for today's decline thinking it's Wave 4 of the current move with wave 5 to carry the market up to 500. Reviewing the "looks", This view shows that SPY broke to new highs and this down move is the test of the breakout level. I took a long position at...
Looks like this kicks off another five wave move to complete the correction. UPS laid off 12,000 workers due to, in part, slowing shipments. While various government released numbers strive to push a positive spin, showing shipments and layoffs reveal the truth.
Looks like one more leg down could complete the correction from the last ATH. Potential Wave 3 projection indicates mid-40s. Be ready to pounce on any middle of the night crashes. These have turned out to be exceptional buying opportunities, every time. I had been using the iron condor strategy for quite a while now but something's got to give, especially...
Since last year, I've felt that we were entering a wave three in an overall SuperCycle wave 5. I expect will move higher for decades. Looking at the potential for this wave 3 to move to the 1.618 fib, not uncommon for a wave 3. That would put SPY at 8,000.
Decade's long support here as well. WHo knows when the next virus will strike?
While my Elliott wave skills are basic at best, I predict that we are about to enter a Wave 3 move. The formation appears to be a reverse head and shoulders. A measured move above the neckline takes it to 236. Coincidentally, a 1.618 fib. One can expect that degree of a move for a wave 3. Could go higher but seems that mainstream analysts are calling for...
Price coming down to test support at the $100 area. Believe a $140 price in the next year or two and perhaps double in five years. Adding to my position at or below 100.
Wave pattern is looking fairly clear, showing that we are in a Wave 3 now. A breakout of the recent highs should push price to 230 and above. When gold starts taking off, it will be moving over 100 a day, 10 points in GLD. Target price could be achieved fairly soon, probably by the time the Fed cuts rates. Many are expecting this in March. My strategy has...
expecting a three month test of the low, pushing down to 170 or lower.
Ten year support line. Historically this appears to be a good time to initiate a long term investment.
stocks follow money supply. That's all there is to it.
Undoubtedly, most are bearish and I also am as just the pure interest rate situation would require that market prices adjust lower. But I started the year off with a bullish outlook and need to add some calls here this morning, just in case we did complete wave 4 and are headed higher in a wave 5 move.
Could be just error, but a break below the channel line would be a significant trend change. Now to be ignored as valuations based on interest changes show SPY should be 10% lower
Looking like a corrective wave 4 with yet another wave up to complete this longer term B wave.
testing the morning's high. Sold the last of my calls and now have a bunch of cheap puts (weren't so cheap when I bought them ;-) ) Still thinking about an earlier post I wrote valuing the SP with the higher interest rates. 405 seemed the likely target. That's how I'm playing it now into October.
Looking for trendlines or corrections seem to be folly. Just look at the last couple of centuries. Seems that market timing, looking for corrections, it's all folly. The market is never going to correct in a meaningful way.
Played around with simple Present Value calculations and calculating with a higher interest rate. All other things being equal, SPY should be priced at 405. Assuming we are in the end of a B wave for an A-B-C correction wave
Really felt this morning that the early pop was a last gasp and shifted to a bear posture. Failing to get back into the up channel is pretty telling. Next stop under 430.